Spring / Summer 2010

[Thundery wintry showers]

You say we scraped by very good luck. I remember that London at the end of june/july was predicted 29 to 32c for at least 5 consecutive days! so how did we only just scrape it, that was the best heat for a long time, mainly in the south for the heat, still not as good as heatwaves we usually get IMO.

I think we've been a bit "spoilt" for heat in recent years. I think late June/early July 2009 was probably what we'd have expected from the biggest heatwave in an "average" summer, taking a long-term average, and also August had a few instances of 27-29C in the southeast. There was nothing in excess of that heatwave in 2002, 2004, 2007 or 2008. The 1990s had bigger heatwaves in most years, but then again the summers of the 1990s really were exceptional for their combination of heat, sunshine and shortage of rainfall.

[Derp Patrol]

I think we've been a bit "spoilt" for heat in recent years. I think late June/early July 2009 was probably what we'd have expected from the biggest heatwave in an "average" summer, taking a long-term average, and also August had a few instances of 27-29C in the southeast. There was nothing in excess of that heatwave in 2002, 2004, 2007 or 2008. The 1990s had bigger heatwaves in most years, but then again the summers of the 1990s really were exceptional for their combination of heat, sunshine and shortage of rainfall.

I agree. In an average year, I'd expect our warmest spell of the summer to deliver 30-32C, but not much higher. The past 15 years or so we have been lucky that we have hit 38C in 2003, 35-36C and many 30C+ in 2006, and the same in 1995. I'd expect maybe a 33C or 34C twice a decade maybe?

[Wilxy]

I agree. In an average year, I'd expect our warmest spell of the summer to deliver 30-32C, but not much higher. The past 15 years or so we have been lucky that we have hit 38C in 2003, 35-36C and many 30C+ in 2006, and the same in 1995. I'd expect maybe a 33C or 34C twice a decade maybe?

Yes i remember the long hot sunny days in 03 and 06 also gave some nice thunderstorms from slack low's would be nice to see that again soon but at the moment i wouldn't put my bets on it for this summer.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The most reliable setup for frequent thunderstorms definitely seems to be the scenario of high pressure to the east and an Atlantic trough out west. This setup prevailed during the hot and, at times, thundery weather of 1-12 June 2006 and most of July 2006. June 2003 had a similar setup but with the trough a bit further east leading to conditions that were less settled and not quite as warm- nonetheless most places were warmer and sunnier than average and there was plenty of thunder activity in eastern and southern areas. The Julys of 1994 and 1995 also had this setup, and the one in 1994 was particularly thundery in some parts of the country.

[weather_it_will]

Judging by all the shops around here giving huge discounts on suncream, barbecues, and garden furniture,

I would say they must have their long range forecasts that probably say that summer is already over before it's officially begun.

[SP1986]

Judging by all the shops around here giving huge discounts on suncream, barbecues, and garden furniture,

I would say they must have their long range forecasts that probably say that summer is already over before it's officially begun.

Probably the most sensible thing to do really as recently these items have had little or no use, and probably will continue to be a waste of time in terms a buying.

Afterall it's best to just reduce them instead of throwing them in the waste which is often done at the end of summer.

The truth is though given summers like last year and the previous are likely this year and possibly beyond, there is no point in buying them for this year - there's nothing the shops can do about that apart from reduce though!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think the type of summer we'll have I describe as 'transient'. I think we'll have northern blocking around but this gettin g split by troughs in Atlantic which will allow a ridge of HP to affect the UK on occasions bringing warm and humid conditions at time. I doubt there will be any heatwave scenario but good thundery episodes. So slightly warmer than average, average rain to slightly above, sunshine on occasions but no BBQ summer....again. What ECM has predicted and is predicting currently for this month I think looks a repeating set up.

BFTP

[Eugene]

I'm surprised of not many are talking of the very cold mins recorded lately, i had 0C at home but -2C in my car thermometer this morning while driving to work in the countryside and thats on a road i'm sure out in valleys near me it reached at least -5C :o

It seems people are obsessed with urban mins when just a few miles outside in the countryside its MUCH colder especially away from roads and in valleys which there are lots of in the midlands and wales.

Temps 0C or below are incredible to me for mid May yes its mid May now when the nights are only as long as very early August to late July, days are very long now with hardly much darkness so to record 0C or below with not much time for temps to drop is amazing.

[SP1986]

On the coast it's a totally different story Eugene, I haven't seen below 0C since end of February/start of March.

[Ben_Cambs]

The last air frost recorded here was on the 22nd April, I doubt -5C was achieved in the vallies where you live though Eugene, maybe -3C at the lowest.

[BlueHedgehog074]

I must say, considering what the temperatures have been like both daytime and nighttime recently, that it's quite possible to experience warmer temperatures in Winter where, in the right sort of pattern, they could reach as high as 15*C during the daytime, and just two or three degrees colder overnight with a cloud cover. Clearly, this will depend on your location and other aspects, too.

Tis looking like a possible warmer spell during next week, though, which would be great if it goes to plan. A bit of a shame about a possible wet June, in my opinion, (especially from what I read in the Technical Model Discussion/Model Output Discussion).

Edited May 10, 2010 by Rainbow Snow

[Derp Patrol]

Haven't had a ground frost for a long while here, but what is amazing is how we have had consistently below average mins by about 5C!

[kold weather]

I suspect this summer will at best could become something of a split set-up again, the south could well be lucky because if we can get a quick enough developing La Nina then its possible the jet could swing polewards enough to shunt the NAO positive and drag in SW airflow. Its not ideal by any means but its something to watch given what I'm seeing is as GP said, a rather poor summer pattern. Models quite keen still on a west based -ve NAO and whilst any switch to La Nina may well reduce any feature somewhat its hard to argue against some sort of -ve NAO feature, weakening to neutral as the summer goes on.

I was previously optimistic about the possiblities for the summer earlier in the Spring but with the El nino's collapse being so rapid recently we could quite easily see this being another snapback type event and typically they don't end up looking very good at all, some examples of such years:

1954--- June-13.4 July-14.2 August-14.6

1964--- June-13.3 July-16.1 August-15.5

1973--- June-14.8 July-15.6 August-16.5

1988--- June-14.4 July-14.7 August-15.2

1998--- June-14.2 July-15.5 August-15.9

2007--- June-15.1 July-15.2 August-15.4

[SP1986]

Lets face it give the temperature were experiencing now, I think even 15C will be considered warm. I also think when 20C comes again we should appreciate it because it doesn't look like 20C is going to occur anytime soon which is fairly worrying.

[Wilxy]

Lets face it give the temperature were experiencing now, I think even 15C will be considered warm. I also think when 20C comes again we should appreciate it because it doesn't look like 20C is going to occur anytime soon which is fairly worrying.

If this summer turns out to be a cold one i at least want winter to be as intresting as the last one.

[Milhouse]

Lets face it give the temperature were experiencing now, I think even 15C will be considered warm. I also think when 20C comes again we should appreciate it because it doesn't look like 20C is going to occur anytime soon which is fairly worrying.

If the ECM verifies we are likely to see 20c being achieved Tuesday/Wednesday next week so whilst we may not see a sudden rise in temperatures in the short term, the current cool spell looks to be thankfully coming to an end.

[William of Walworth]

Not been on here since before the General Ejection.

Some contrasting prospects being offered on this thread!

We have this (admittedly extreme!) offered by RichardR :

After all this bleeting about how the cold May will lead to a washout or cold summer, the synoptics will do a snap turnaround in early June and we will have the hottest summer on record. Severe droughts will lead to hose pipe bans again, and August will be the sunniest month on record with up to 450 hours of sun. 30c will be reached for 30 consecutive days somewhere in the UK, as a massive high pressure to the southeast pumps plume after plume of baking air over the UK. Unfortunately, lightning strikes from elevated storms will start heath fires, and sahara sand dust will blow in the wind and affect flights across europe, even stopping them altogether.

But then we have this :

Judging by all the shops around here giving huge discounts on suncream, barbecues, and garden furniture,

I would say they must have their long range forecasts that probably say that summer is already over before it's officially begun.

And almost all points inbetween.

I haven't dared get onto the technical discussion thread yet, but how can anyone even approach confidence about a bad or good summer yet?

Mixed bag looks the likeliest?

But for now, I'd guess that anyone suggesting a summer dominated by washout conditions and/or chilly conditions should be met with scepticism at the moment?

Unless GP or other technical experts have offered real and sustained pessimism .... have they?

I can't yet get any handle on Jet Stream positioning for later on this summer, nor on likely levels of Atlantic activity. Insights/intelligent guesses always welcomed though ...

Edited May 12, 2010 by William of Walworth

[summer blizzard]

Have taken a look at the April data for the MEI/QBO and AO, and anologues indicate that at least in terms of temperature, the exact opposite to my predictions, so the jury is still out on this summer i think.

[Stargazer]

Probably the most sensible thing to do really as recently these items have had little or no use, and probably will continue to be a waste of time in terms a buying.

Afterall it's best to just reduce them instead of throwing them in the waste which is often done at the end of summer.

The truth is though given summers like last year and the previous are likely this year and possibly beyond, there is no point in buying them for this year - there's nothing the shops can do about that apart from reduce though!

Got a cheap barbecue this year anyway, and we've used it once so far. Our last one broke the first (and last) time we used it last year - try getting a barbecue in August! Anyway, no doubt our new barbecue will pretty much guarantee an mediocre summer at best

[Costa Del Fal]

The 16-30 day outlook on the met office site makes for ugly reading. Unsettled, below average temps unless your in Central England. Will probably change but i have that nagging feeling that were in for another summer that is poor. Wouldnt be surprised if the majority of the summer was dominated by the North being cool and wet while Central and southern parts are drier and warmer.

However, despite some constant pessimism in here, i think the summer will be mixed. Sometimes it will be cool and wet but balanced out bu drier spells but i doubt anything too hot.

Edited May 14, 2010 by Blizzards

[Gray-Wolf]

Just a thought. If we keep getting these northern blocking situations how warm will the incoming air (from the Arctic) get this year, as it travels south?

The next FI northerly has a warmer core (by half!) than this last one ,and, we have record temps in the Arctic already

(as we have already had during this 'Low Solar' generated 'Atlantic Blocking!) so what of a H.P. dominated, temperate northern hemisphere (less cloud), for the summer months?

Cold Air mass (relatively), strong Summer Sun (warm days, chilly nights) but lot's of heat into the cloud free Oceans (including sections of the Arctic so further warming the new 'open water' water there ( with low anticyclonic wind fields not churning the oceans as much as normal ....like sections of the S.Pacific this last year..... (to further 'mild out' our northern plunges over summer).

In the old world of the 'Perennially iced' Greenland/Svalbard sectors of the Arctic Ocean we'd have suffered a different fate to the summer coming,in any similarly deep solar driven synoptic responsive phase (......it can't be such a 'long cycle' ,as, folk who rely on such, hold up the L.I.A. accounts found in literature as 'evidence' of a past 'Low Solar' phase)

Should all the present 'Earth bound' ,'cool cycles', not halt our current warming ( when combined with any low solar over the next 5 year period ) then even the securest 'denier' will need to wonder how? (apart from the obvious, accepted, explaination),

Two birds with one stone? A proof of 'Solar impact' on weather and another proven factor in the impact of AGW?

Edited May 14, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[Solar Cycles]

Just a thought. If we keep getting these northern blocking situations how warm will the incoming air (from the Arctic) get this year, as it travels south?

The next FI northerly has a warmer core (by half!) than this last one ,and, we have record temps in the Arctic already

(as we have already had during this 'Low Solar' generated 'Atlantic Blocking!) so what of a H.P. dominated, temperate northern hemisphere (less cloud), for the summer months?

Cold Air mass (relatively), strong Summer Sun (warm days, chilly nights) but lot's of heat into the cloud free Oceans (including sections of the Arctic so further warming the new 'open water' water there ( with low anticyclonic wind fields not churning the oceans as much as normal ....like sections of the S.Pacific this last year..... (to further 'mild out' our northern plunges over summer).

In the old world of the 'Perennially iced' Greenland/Svalbard sectors of the Arctic Ocean we'd have suffered a different fate to the summer coming,in any similarly deep solar driven synoptic responsive phase (......it can't be such a 'long cycle' ,as, folk who rely on such, hold up the L.I.A. accounts found in literature as 'evidence' of a past 'Low Solar' phase)

Should all the present 'Earth bound' ,'cool cycles', not halt our current warming ( when combined with any low solar over the next 5 year period ) then even the securest 'denier' will need to wonder how? (apart from the obvious, accepted, explaination),

Two birds with one stone? A proof of 'Solar impact' on weather and another proven factor in the impact of AGW?

For goodness sake GW, every thread I read as your Arctic ice footprint all over it.

On a more serious note, I sincerely hope this Summer does bring us some much needed warmth. Personally I feel it will be a mixed bag, nothing in the way of heatwaves, but some pleasant warm spells between the dire wet and cool weather. On a brighter note winter 2010/11, could be a classic, if you like cold that is!

Edited May 15, 2010 by Solar Cycles

[conor123]

What i would really welcome now is some sunshine, i actually can't remember the last time we had a day which didnt cloud over and go bitterly cold.

Last Sunday was decent until around 2pm when it went cold and grey but that's about it for this month so far, even today which was forecast to be almost cloudless is currently overcast with nothing more than a 10 second glimpse of sunshine once every 20 minutes.

[Gray-Wolf]

What i would really welcome now is some sunshine, i actually can't remember the last time we had a day which didnt cloud over and go bitterly cold.

Last Sunday was decent until around 2pm when it went cold and grey but that's about it for this month so far, even today which was forecast to be almost cloudless is currently overcast with nothing more than a 10 second glimpse of sunshine once every 20 minutes.

Roll on the latter part of next week then eh conor?

[noggin]

This Summer........

........phew.....it's going to be a scorcher!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1278970/A-long-hot-summer-lies-ahead--say-forecasters-correctly-predicted-years-washout.html

:lol: