Spring / Summer 2010

[Thundery wintry showers]

Wet humid thundery days are more popular than you might think- they certainly get discussion rocketing in the Convective Discussion thread! But it's perfectly true that there's a lot more to how pleasant it feels outside than just the air temperature, and indeed it's a point that I often make myself. Our bodies cope with different conditions in different ways, but we are all influenced by humidity, wind, cloud cover and precipitation, and sometimes those factors are more important than the air temperature.

I don't think the winter of 2009/10 will raise expectations to the extent that we've seen with recent summers- true, there have been some who have attempted to claim that it was a "normal" winter, but most of us are aware that it was strongly anomalous, especially in the context of recent winters, and that most recent winters haven't even approached the long-term average snowiness. I imagine that if 2010/11 was to be comparable to 2008/09 most snow lovers would be happy, which can't be said of a near-average summer.

[conor123]

They were indeed four dull cool wet summers in a row, but it would be inaccurate to say that there were no warm dry sunny months, except over limited areas of the country. June 1986 was a warm dry sunny month over many parts of the country, and in most parts of Scotland and the far north of England June 1988 achieved this distinction.

July 1988 was indeed the classic "unsettled active Atlantic month" with only eastern Scotland and north-east England having temperatures and/or sunshine near normal and everywhere being very wet, but the month in that four-year period that sticks out for me is June 1987. Averaged nationally the dullest June on record, one of the wettest, and the mean maxima were among the lowest on record.

Last year's summer is often lumped together with the previous two but I think this is largely undeserved, and perhaps an indication that expectations are so high that an average summer is percieved to be poor. Averaged nationally it was quite a wet summer, but with temperatures slightly above average and sunshine near average. Notably, a surprisingly high number of complaints about last year's summer are coming from East Anglia and the southeast where most places were warmer, drier and sunnier than average.

I agree about last summer, it was certainly nothing special but it was hardly a disasterous summer.

Many many camping trips were managed out of it, and the weather for V Festival was magnificent, it was July that let it down though the majority of

August was pretty great which was nice considering the likes of Summer 2006 had poor August weather!

[LomondSnowstorm]

2009 was a great summer in parts, certainly better than the two that preceded it and it managed an early July heatwave (30C in Edinburgh) also.

Heat like that is ok - fairly intense but shortlived. What I would hate is a constant, humid 25C for a month as this rarely leads to either thunderstorms or necessarily that much sunshine if an onshore wind develops.

[Marcus_surfer]

This summer i would be happy with 1 week of very hot weather followed by severe thunderstorms, is that too much to ask for?

[Guest]

2009 was a great summer in parts, certainly better than the two that preceded it and it managed an early July heatwave (30C in Edinburgh) also.

Heat like that is ok - fairly intense but shortlived. What I would hate is a constant, humid 25C for a month as this rarely leads to either thunderstorms or necessarily that much sunshine if an onshore wind develops.

We would never see 25C for a month in Scotland, even a week at 25C is rare. In this area you're unlikely to see more than 7 days in a row at that temp, I don't know what other places in Scotland are like, but I would think they are much the same.

Now, if you take it from the average Scot's melting point or above then you can scrape a month together sometimes :lol:

[LomondSnowstorm]

We would never see 25C for a month in Scotland, even a week at 25C is rare. In this area you're unlikely to see more than 7 days in a row at that temp, I don't know what other places in Scotland are like, but I would think they are much the same.

Now, if you take it from the average Scot's melting point or above then you can scrape a month together sometimes

I meant a week really. I'm sure we had that for about a week in 2006 though it was sometimes just 22C maximums even in that week.

[Derp Patrol]

Summer 2009 here was dissapointing for several reasons. Firstly, July was a total washout, and every day was between 21-24C with no variation. June had several cool days in mid month where it felt more like April at 15C. Yes we had one warm spell at the end of June, but it was hardly astonishing, and I would expect at least 2 or 3 of those spanish plume type spells each summer. Despite this, September was nice, and we finally got a dry spell, although it is not quite the same as that happening in summer.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I remember July 2009 proved to be a very contentious month. Here in Norwich it was a month dominated by showers and thunderstorms with sunshine in between and modest warmth during most afternoons, and I found it quite enjoyable, but many others did not. However July was unquestionably an Atlantic-dominated washout in most central and western areas with plenty of frontal rain and cloud cover and not many thunderstorms. In any case you omitted to mention August which was very dry in the SE, and after a cloudy first third produced a good deal of warm sunny weather as well.

But to be fair if we expect a summer to be significantly warmer, drier and sunnier than average we are going to be disappointed most years. The warming trend over the globe might help raise summer temperatures a little but the effects on sunshine and rainfall amounts are decidedly complex- e.g. in the 1990s most climatologists thought Britain was headed for much drier summers with a warmer globe, but the 2000s have cast doubt on this.

[Guest]

I remember July 2009 proved to be a very contentious month. Here in Norwich it was a month dominated by showers and thunderstorms with sunshine in between and modest warmth during most afternoons, and I found it quite enjoyable, but many others did not. However July was unquestionably an Atlantic-dominated washout in most central and western areas with plenty of frontal rain and cloud cover and not many thunderstorms. In any case you omitted to mention August which was very dry in the SE, and after a cloudy first third produced a good deal of warm sunny weather as well.

But to be fair if we expect a summer to be significantly warmer, drier and sunnier than average we are going to be disappointed most years. The warming trend over the globe might help raise summer temperatures a little but the effects on sunshine and rainfall amounts are decidedly complex- e.g. in the 1990s most climatologists thought Britain was headed for much drier summers with a warmer globe, but the 2000s have cast doubt on this.

A repeat of June and July 09 would be fine for this summer. It was just August which saw really poor weather locally. OK, July was a bit wet at times with some thunderstorms even up here, but it was warm and sunny too.

[Thundery wintry showers]

True, August 09 had a pronounced NW-SE split and many parts of the north and west had markedly less sun in August than in July- a point that is easy to miss!

[AderynCoch]

Looking back now it's fair to say there were no really bad summers in the 90s, and only 2 really bad summer months (August 1992 and June 1997) in the class of June-July 07, Aug 08, July 09.

You're forgetting 1993, which was the coolest summer of the decade. Nowhere hit 30C that year, and the best that could be managed round here was 25C. Crosby managed two days above 20C in July and one day in August! We can at least say the past three summers haven't been that bad (even 2007).

I would agree that summer 2009 was better than the previous two, but truth be told it was still a let down. After a fine first few days, July was hardly any different to 2007 (the rest of the month had similar temperatures and rainfall - luckily for me I was sweating away in sauna-like Shanghai between the 13th and 28th). August was better but terribly frustrating, as the warm and dry weather which the south east enjoyed hardly made it here, thanks to constant low pressure festering to the west. I suppose you could say August was a good month if you lived in the south east, but that cool cyclonic pattern we got stuck in during July really wasted away prime summer time (again).

[Weather-history]

Looking back now it's fair to say there were no really bad summers in the 90s, and only 2 really bad summer months (August 1992 and June 1997) in the class of June-July 07, Aug 08, July 09.

June 1991? One of the coldest Junes on record. Manchester hadn't even reached 21C for that year by the end of June 1991.

June 1990, July 1992, July 1993, August 1994, June 1998 and August 1999 were not that brilliant.

Edited March 29, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think there is too much emphasis on rainfall totals in SO95's analysis at the expense of other factors (sunshine, temperature, number of raindays). There's no way that July 2009 classifies as "really bad" yet June 1998 doesn't!

July 1998 is also worth a mention- over England and Wales it was much drier than July 2009 but also somewhat cooler and cloudier, and the relative dryness was a result of frequent light rainfall rather than infrequent rainfall. The month was also comparably wet in Scotland.

However on the whole the 2000s have certainly seen a move towards cloudier and wetter summers, especially relative to the 1990s.

[DeepSnow]

June was fairly good at times here, had a high of 28.2C and had a good day of thunderstorms and a few short lived thunderstorms through the rest of the month, but they were the only ones we had in summer 2009. July was a bit of a washout at times but we did manage a high of 32.3C, which was the highest of our summer here in Bridgend! but it was a very windy month too with a fair bit of rain at times, August was more of a washout from what i remember with more rain and cooler temps with a high of 27.4C. Hope this summer is a good one for thunderstorms! and also get atleast one day with temps reaching 30C.

Edited March 29, 2010 by Deepsnow

[Derp Patrol]

30C is virtually guaranteed, it very rarely doesn't happen somewhere in the UK, the last time it didn't may have been 1993? It's quite easy to achieve for southern areas, but less so up north.

I don't mind if we don't get the 'real heat' temperatures in the mid 30s which we are probably due by now, but just some sunny weather with clear skies and no rain would be nice..

[Bottesford]

All I remember of July 2009 was non stop rain and chilly winds. Went to Cornwall for the week - total washout and one of the worst times weatherwise I've ever had down there. One day it poured non stop dawn till dusk.

If we can loose the Atlantic from May to August then I'm happy. Up to then, like today, it can keep coming so long as it goes away for summer proper.

For me, I want a consistent hot & dry summer - like June & July 2006 were. I could reliably plan things for a week later and for the most part the weather was on side. Rare on our windswept island of course so will probably make do with hot, sunny weather when stuck at work and pouring rain come pub/weekend time!

[Albion Snowman]

Only today can I say with any conviction that most of the daffoils are now out. A week ago there was only the odd few. They have been fully opened by early february in previous years and is a testament of this winters prolonged cold.

[conor123]

No sign of any settled weather, not one day of sunshine/dry weather anytime in the next 7 days.

A few days of 12-16c with good amounts of sunshine before 13th April SURELY must be possible yet its looking like settling down Mid month.

Edited March 29, 2010 by conor123

[damianslaw]

The past three summers in the main were dominated by the atlantic with a southerly tracking jet especially 2007 and 2008, less so last summer but still the case during July.

Will the jet realign itself on its more usual SW-NE trajectory or are we going to see it remain locked into its more southerly position - it certainly doesn't seem to want to move northwards anytime soon, if it continues in similar vein it will mean any wet unsettled weather will also be of the cool variety and affect much more of the country.

[Ben_Cambs]

Last summer was far from being totally disappointing, not the best summer yes but this is the UK we are talking about! We did have one decent spell of weather in late June, August wasnt too bad with some very nice days that werent hot but not cool either. Although July was poor, I went camping in South Wales for a week in late July and it rained every day and was a total washout, but wasnt as bad on the other side of the country, but still was wet. I dont know what this upcoming summer will bring, but it is a possibility that we have moved away from the 90's type summers into cooler wetter ones with hotter and dry spells at times. Way too far to make a reasonable guess for this summer, but I would hate to see the days that we saw in August 2003, very hot and humid, totally uncomfortable, but I wouldnt mind a decent thunderstorm or two!

Edit: I agree with Damianslaw above, the NAO is still in -ve and the ensemble outlooks mean doesnt want it to return to a +ve NAO anytime soon, thats one thing im taking into mind for now

Edited March 29, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Summer of 95]

I think there is too much emphasis on rainfall totals in SO95's analysis at the expense of other factors (sunshine, temperature, number of raindays). There's no way that July 2009 classifies as "really bad" yet June 1998 doesn't!

July 1998 is also worth a mention- over England and Wales it was much drier than July 2009 but also somewhat cooler and cloudier, and the relative dryness was a result of frequent light rainfall rather than infrequent rainfall. The month was also comparably wet in Scotland.

However on the whole the 2000s have certainly seen a move towards cloudier and wetter summers, especially relative to the 1990s.

July 1998 I thought about naming and shaming indeed; but decided against it because although it was often cool and cloudy (July 2000 can also be named for that) it didn't have the long stretches of rainy weather like July 1988. But I agree it was a poor summer month. June 1998 I think gets forgotten because of June 1997; I remember there being 3 consecutive bad Junes 97-8-9 but 1997 is the one that sticks most.

Actually I was referring as much to the number of raindays when it came to naming the really bad months, although it might not have come across as such. That is why I have always cited August 1992 (which wasn't all that dull) as a wretched month. August 1999 which was very wet indeed in this area doesn't quite make the cut, because the rain came in a couple of 3-4 day deluges with dry though not especially warm or sunny in between.

July 2009 was wetter than July 1988, June 1997, August 1992 and August 2008 around here at Shawbury; sunshine was 138.0 (KZ) versus 154.2 (CS) for July 1988. After the 5th only 2 days at Shawbury reached 21C, and 22 days had 1mm or more of rain. It was an appalling summer month in Shropshire.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Actually for Shropshire I would completely agree with you regarding July 2009. The disagreement may well stem partly from the fact that I'm taking the country as a whole rather than the Shropshire area, and also partly from the fact that Norwich (where I was) fared much better than most other parts of the country, in the sense of having warm temperatures, above average sunshine and only moderately above average rainfall.

I have little doubt that I'd have been one of those vilifying the month if I'd spent it anywhere in Wales, the west Midlands or south-west England.

[conor123]

Indeed here in Telford after Sunday 5th it was only once, on the 11th that the temperature exceeded 21c, the 25th came close but im sure it clouded over or something before 21c was reached though the rest of the midlands got 21-23c that day.

Last summer did have many days here which ended up better than forecast, i do remember it being an exceptionally breezy Summer though, there were very few times you could be outside when the wind wasn't gusting away.

Even in the poorest summers there have been cracking days which would fit perfectly in a great summer, e.g 19th July 2007 the sun shone all day here and we got an absolutely huge thunderstorm in the evening, i remember June had started off pretty good aswell, 2008 seemed to have no redeeming features as even at the end of July

when it finally warmed up it was still often very cloudy here with Sunday 27th July being the best day.

The thing most surprising about last July is that despite it being exceptionally wet we never had any thunderstorms here, in fact there wasn't a single thunderstorm all summer other than some distant rumbles and flashes of lighting at times, the only time a storm was overhead was Mid-April around the 15th?

Certainly a summer of spells of 21-25c and plenty of sunshine, interspersed with brief hot humid spells and thunderstorms and the odd cool day would be a nice change, one of the good things for me about last summer is that the best weather came days were at there longest.

May has often been a summery month lately, i think only 2007 in the past 5 years has had a poor May for here.

[RichardR]

I don't know about previous years (moved here in 2003) but July 2006 was as close to a mediocre summer month as it will possibly get in Buxton, with 280 sunshine hours and an average maximum of 24C. This is about the normal average for the area I lived from 1992 which was East Berkshire near Heathrow, but over there the average high that month was a fairly warm 28C.

July 2006 wasn't exceptionally warm in Buxton with some days reaching only 16c but it would be good to see a repeat of that type of weather again, with a deep, humid south easterly lasting a few weeks, 28-29 by day and 15-16 at night for a few days.

[reef]

I don't know about previous years (moved here in 2003) but July 2006 was as close to a mediocre summer month as it will possibly get in Buxton, with 280 sunshine hours and an average maximum of 24C. This is about the normal average for the area I lived from 1992 which was East Berkshire near Heathrow, but over there the average high that month was a fairly warm 28C.

July 2006 wasn't exceptionally warm in Buxton with some days reaching only 16c but it would be good to see a repeat of that type of weather again, with a deep, humid south easterly lasting a few weeks, 28-29 by day and 15-16 at night for a few days.

With all due respect, if you think July 2006 was mediocre, then you're living in the wrong country. The average sunshine in Buxton in July is around 180 hours, so to get 'only 280 hours' (or more than 9 hours per day) is exceptional. The mean maximum temperature was also more than 3.5C above average. How is the average temperature near Heathrow any indication of how a month as been 100 miles away?