Spring / Summer 2010

[Milhouse]

The daffs here are on the verge of coming out and in the garden some bush (dont know its name) is starting to get yellow flowers. Its still flowering a couple of weeks later than it has been in previous years despite the mild weather of late. However theres a definite feel of spring now and with not much wind it feels much warmer than 12.4c would suggest.

[Eugene]

:lol: very funny April fools joke, they get earlier every year though :o

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1259685/UK-hottest-summer-predicts-Positive-Weather-Solutions.html

[AderynCoch]

Jesus wept. Some sections of the media really should keep their mouths shut when it comes to the weather, as they clearly have no clue what they're talking about.

Little wonder Philip Eden complains so much.

[LomondSnowstorm]

very funny April fools joke, they get earlier every year though

http://www.dailymail...-Solutions.html

Lol, have a look back though at their forecast for this winter and it isn't as far off the mark as I thought it would be at the time - by luck more than method perhaps, but if they continue to get forecasts right we may have to listen to old PWS

[Derp Patrol]

I definately would not mind if that prediction came off. We are due a warm, dry summer after the last 3 miserable attempts. Last year was slightly better than the previous two, but was still poor even down here. July was an absolute washout, and apart from a few minor warm spells in late May, late June and late August, there was a real lack of heat and sun. Sometimes I just wish that I lived in the Med, where there would be no need to fuss about what the summer is going to be like.

[William of Walworth]

I definately would not mind if that prediction came off. We are due a warm, dry summer after the last 3 miserable attempts. Last year was slightly better than the previous two, but was still poor even down here. July was an absolute washout, and apart from a few minor warm spells in late May, late June and late August, there was a real lack of heat and sun. Sometimes I just wish that I lived in the Med, where there would be no need to fuss about what the summer is going to be like.

Interesting thread, I've just read the whole 11 pages.

I am refusing to speculate anything like a 'forecast' for summer proper so far, but Rob's wishes more or less coincide with mine.

Just as an accurate prediction for summer is near impossible at this stage, optimists should also remind themselves that there's nothing to say so far that we WON'T get plenty of warm sunny weather this summer.

By summer I consider the real season to be mid May to early or mid September ; any good weather earlier or later than those start/end points are just a bonus for me.

I'm going with the highly unscientific 'we're well overdue a good summer' method for the moment, and crossing my fingers. Hopecasting is where we're at when we haven't even got to Easter yet.

I'm also hoping that Philip Eden's Telegraph article from 2007, reposted above, works in reverse this time. He essentially says good April = poor bulk of summer ; well current models suggest we may be in for a pretty unsettled start to April over the Easter period. Personally I'd trade an unsettled washout for all of April in exchange for a comprehensive payback from May onwards .....

Praying for the Atlantic to be DEAD, and anticyclonic influence to be dicatatorially dominant, over the whole of June July and August.

I appreciate that solid blocks of prolonged hot periods are unrealistic really, but any chance of a suitably Northerly tracking Jet this year?

Edited March 23, 2010 by William of Walworth

[clee_snow]

Its now 8 days of temps above 10c in Cleethorpes not bad, spring is here at last

[Weather-history]

There has been no month warmer for the CET than September 2006 since September 2006, 41 months ago. Next chance to beat it will be June which means a run of 44 months at least.

Edited March 24, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Milhouse]

Theres certainly been a huge transformation in the past couple of weeks from conditions that could still be described as wintry to now what wouldnt be unusual to achieve in May. The second half of the month doesnt quite match that of March 2005 but to end up near average after the cold and frosty first week shows how exceptionally mild its been recently. Just as i say that its reached 15.1c here and the sun is out. Perfect spring weather.

[Derp Patrol]

I wouldn't say exceptionally mild.. 15C is very easy to achieve in March, and more often than not in February as well. Most days around here have been around average, with the odd day reaching the low-mid teens.

[Eugene]

Yes rob i agree lots of people getting too carried away with the warmth which isnt that warm at all, i do love to see people out in t shirts get a good soaking, i never go out without a coat when LP is about you never know when you might get hit by an unexpected downpour and it really wasnt that warm today anyway with very limited sun and mostly overcast skies.)( the oldies have alot more sense than younger people, saw lots of OAPs with coats today :lol:

Looks like we are behind with Spring because the average for the first 20C in the south is 4th of April, well no chance of that on current output and very early April is typically warm no chance of that either.

[Eugene]

Theres certainly been a huge transformation in the past couple of weeks from conditions that could still be described as wintry to now what wouldnt be unusual to achieve in May.

LOL shows just how dull and wet May must be on average to you then, May especially the second half feels much warmer to me than late March with a much more powerful sun.

Early this week was cool and sunny in a PM flow and last few days a mild overcast wet TM flow hardly unusual for late March infact.

Edited March 25, 2010 by Eugene

[damianslaw]

Unfortunately the mild weather of the last week or so has been accompanied by and large for the majority much more cloud and generally wet or drizzly weather especially here in the NW.

Here in the Lake District early March felt much more springlike than the last week or so even though it was very cold with sharp frosts and maxima barely scraping 6-7 degrees.

The daffodils look like they are still a good week or so from sprouting into flower and the colder trend next week isn't going to help. Having said all this it has been a very traditional start to Spring, similiar in feel to spring 2006.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The main issue with mild weather at this time of year is that it is most often associated with westerly or south-westerly winds, frequent tropical maritime air a NW-SE split- so south-eastern areas see a fair amount of warm sunshine (it's been pretty pleasant at times here in Norwich) while northern and western areas see a lot of cloud and drizzle. The further away high pressure is, the more confined to the SE the warm sunshine tends to be.

The best bet for a combination widespread warmth and sunshine at this time of year is a combination of anticyclonic/southerly types, but we don't get those when the Atlantic is as mobile as it has been recently.

Spring 2010 is certainly behaving in a more "normal" way so far- arriving in fits and bursts with a cold start to March, quite a prolonged warm spell following, and more cold weather looking set to arrive next week, in contrast to the sudden switch to consistent warmth around mid-February last year.

The recent warmth hasn't been exceptional, but it's certainly been notable in many eastern parts of England, with the highest temperatures in March since 2005.

Edited March 25, 2010 by Thundery wintry showers

[Summer of 95]

The main issue with mild weather at this time of year is that it is most often associated with westerly or south-westerly winds, frequent tropical maritime air a NW-SE split- so south-eastern areas see a fair amount of warm sunshine (it's been pretty pleasant at times here in Norwich) while northern and western areas see a lot of cloud and drizzle. The further away high pressure is, the more confined to the SE the warm sunshine tends to be.

The best bet for a combination widespread warmth and sunshine at this time of year is a combination of anticyclonic/southerly types, but we don't get those when the Atlantic is as mobile as it has been recently.

Spring 2010 is certainly behaving in a more "normal" way so far- arriving in fits and bursts with a cold start to March, quite a prolonged warm spell following, and more cold weather looking set to arrive next week, in contrast to the sudden switch to consistent warmth around mid-February last year.

The recent warmth hasn't been exceptional, but it's certainly been notable in many eastern parts of England, with the highest temperatures in March since 2005.

Yes, the dreaded "southeast versus the rest" seems to have reappeared this week; although up until the end of last week March had been a fine month here- frost at night and warm sunshine by day. This week I can only describe as grim- always cloudy in the morning turning to rain in the afternoon, and permanently around the 10-12C mark. Having said that, I've noticed that there is often a short intense spell of W' or SW'lies for a few days near the spring equiinox, which breaks up a period of either easterly or anticyclonic weather. Most noticeably that gale of 20 March 2004, but it's been there pretty much every year recently bar 2002 (when there was widespread warmth and sunshine outside the SE in late March) and to some extent 2007 and 2008 (when northerlies broke up westerly spells, though it turned AC very soon after in 2007). This year's has been unusual in lasting for more than 3-4 days and being unusually wet; it usually is either very short and sharp (like 2004) or longer but not so windy and wet, just milder and duller (2006 the best example, ruined the chance of a really cold March).

15C in the day in late March here isn't remarkeable, but a string of above 10C nights is at least unusual.

[Milhouse]

After what looked like a total write off, this weekend doesnt look too bad considering. It looks like the rain band on Sunday will mostly affect southern parts leaving the rest of the country bright and breezy and of course we'll have an extra hour of daylight in the evening. All goes downhill from then on but i suppose its timed nicely to coincide with the start of the working week.

[Eugene]

Not looking good for summer 2010, as we all know hot summers are rare in the UK anyway so we need all the help we can get, well with a mainly -NAO winter with lots snowcover in europe and also now with the volcanic eruption in iceland i just would be amazed if this summer was hot, i am now actually completely writing it off, heres to summer 2011.

Edited March 26, 2010 by Eugene

[Geordiesnow]

Not looking good for summer 2010, as we all know hot summers are rare in the UK anyway so we need all the help we can get, well with a mainly -NAO winter with lots snowcover in europe and also now with the volcanic eruption in iceland i just would be amazed if this summer was hot, i am now actually completely writing it off, heres to summer 2011.

...And yet people wrote off winter 09/10 in November because of the strength of El Nino. We all know what happens afterwards, don't we? :lol:

All these teleconnections and other data stuff that suppose to affects our weather is unreliable, why do you think the UKMO's seasonal forecasts have been so poor that they have to be scrapped. At the end of the day, the weather will decide what it will do so its laughable you are writing summer off in March!!!

[Glacier Point]

...And yet people wrote off winter 09/10 in November because of the strength of El Nino. We all know what happens afterwards, don't we?

In this quarter, El Nino was argued as a positive factor for a cold winter.

Right now two factors are pointing towards a fourth dodgy summer on the bounce.

The east QBO has increased of late:

http://ds.data.jma.g...lat_u30_nh.html

This means that the summer is likely to feature a medium strength QBO. There is some evidence that QBO-induced waves influence northern blocking. These are most prevelent during east phases and typically move in 3 monthly cycles of downwelling and upwelling. I think it very possible that an upwelling wave will start in June favouring blocking.

Secondly, the arrangement of SSTAs is not good for a strong Azores ridge, in fact I would offer short odds about the summer featuring low pressure in the Atlantic.

http://weather.unisy...e/sst_anom.html

Take a look at that large positive anomaly off the west African coast. That is a good part of a -NAO signal there and consider also that 18 of the last 26 months have featued a -NAO.

We could benefit from a pronounced ridge developing over North Africa (lot of warm air building there) but that would require an absence of blocking to our north to be able to move northwards.

Edited March 26, 2010 by Glacier Point

[Bottesford]

Ahh BST (and the light season in general) is here at last. Sunset is back where I like it - post 7pm!

[lukemc]

Not looking good for summer 2010, as we all know hot summers are rare in the UK anyway so we need all the help we can get, well with a mainly -NAO winter with lots snowcover in europe and also now with the volcanic eruption in iceland i just would be amazed if this summer was hot, i am now actually completely writing it off, heres to summer 2011.

Do you genuinely think that we have entered a run of poor summers similar to the 1980s or 1960s then Eugene? Personally I think that even if we have entered a run of poor summers, it has to change and sooner or later we will get another hot summer what you have got to understand is that in the 80s even though we had some real stinkers of summers like 1988 (especially July) there where also decent summers aswell like 1983 and 1989 so even in the 1980s we did not go more than a few years without experiencing a decent summer so one has got to happen sooner rather than later so I do think in statistical terms at least we are due a good summer.

As for a cold winter preventing a good summer to follow I do not buy that theory I think that the previous winter has no effect on the summer that follows as they are normally determined by different factors coming together for example the summer of 1947 was hot following one of the coldest winters of the 20th century and the summer of 1996 couldn't really be called a "poor" summer after the chilly winter of 1995-96.

As for GP's opinion that the teleconnections/signals as they stand at the moment are not favorable for a hot summer, is I think there is still plenty of time for things to change in our favour as we a still only in March remember - a full 2 months away from the beginning of official meteorological summer remember GP was expecting a mild February for a long time which turned out to be colder than average - so even an excellent and well respected amateur forecaster like GP can sometimes get it wrong especially far in advance. So Eugene I think you are a bit premature in writing of the coming summer a full 2 months before that start of official meteorological summer - is this the earliest "Summer is Over" post we have seen on this forum? Do you have a psychic mind that can see forward into the future or something (only joking of course)!

Luke

[Costa Del Fal]

...And yet people wrote off winter 09/10 in November because of the strength of El Nino. We all know what happens afterwards, don't we?

All these teleconnections and other data stuff that suppose to affects our weather is unreliable, why do you think the UKMO's seasonal forecasts have been so poor that they have to be scrapped. At the end of the day, the weather will decide what it will do so its laughable you are writing summer off in March!!!

I couldnt agree more. Weve only just got into Spring. How on earth can you write off Summer already. I suppose Winter 2010/11 will be under the axe in a minute. :lol:

[Summer of 95]

Do you genuinely think that we have entered a run of poor summers similar to the 1980s or 1960s then Eugene? Personally I think that even if we have entered a run of poor summers, it has to change and sooner or later we will get another hot summer what you have got to understand is that in the 80s even though we had some real stinkers of summers like 1988 (especially July) there where also decent summers aswell like 1983 and 1989 so even in the 1980s we did not go more than a few years without experiencing a decent summer so one has got to happen sooner rather than later so I do think in statistical terms at least we are due a good summer.

As for a cold winter preventing a good summer to follow I do not buy that theory I think that the previous winter has no effect on the summer that follows as they are normally determined by different factors coming together for example the summer of 1947 was hot following one of the coldest winters of the 20th century and the summer of 1996 couldn't really be called a "poor" summer after the chilly winter of 1995-96.

As for GP's opinion that the teleconnections/signals as they stand at the moment are not favorable for a hot summer, is I think there is still plenty of time for things to change in our favour as we a still only in March remember - a full 2 months away from the beginning of official meteorological summer remember GP was expecting a mild February for a long time which turned out to be colder than average - so even an excellent and well respected amateur forecaster like GP can sometimes get it wrong especially far in advance. So Eugene I think you are a bit premature in writing of the coming summer a full 2 months before that start of official meteorological summer - is this the earliest "Summer is Over" post we have seen on this forum? Do you have a psychic mind that can see forward into the future or something (only joking of course)!

Luke

Well in the 1980s stats say there were four consecutive summers with no warm dry sunny months, and at least one "total washout" month; 1985-6-7-8. Now we're on 3 and counting, so a fourth wouldn't be unprecedented; though of those 80s years the only month I remember being particularly bad was July 1988. 1986 I actually remember being an OK summer, not brill but no worse than say 1993 or 2001. Also those mid-80s years weren't short on sunny dry weather outside "summer", eg Sept-Oct 1985, Sept 1986, April 1987 and 1988, currently we haven't seen a spell of more than a few days like this here since April 2007. In truth I've recently reassessed summers like 93, 98, 00, 02 as merely "mediocre" rather than "bad", after the last 3 years. Looking back now it's fair to say there were no really bad summers in the 90s, and only 2 really bad summer months (August 1992 and June 1997) in the class of June-July 07, Aug 08, July 09.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Well in the 1980s stats say there were four consecutive summers with no warm dry sunny months, and at least one "total washout" month; 1985-6-7-8.

They were indeed four dull cool wet summers in a row, but it would be inaccurate to say that there were no warm dry sunny months, except over limited areas of the country. June 1986 was a warm dry sunny month over many parts of the country, and in most parts of Scotland and the far north of England June 1988 achieved this distinction.

July 1988 was indeed the classic "unsettled active Atlantic month" with only eastern Scotland and north-east England having temperatures and/or sunshine near normal and everywhere being very wet, but the month in that four-year period that sticks out for me is June 1987. Averaged nationally the dullest June on record, one of the wettest, and the mean maxima were among the lowest on record.

Last year's summer is often lumped together with the previous two but I think this is largely undeserved, and perhaps an indication that expectations are so high that an average summer is percieved to be poor. Averaged nationally it was quite a wet summer, but with temperatures slightly above average and sunshine near average. Notably, a surprisingly high number of complaints about last year's summer are coming from East Anglia and the southeast where most places were warmer, drier and sunnier than average.

[damianslaw]

They were indeed four dull cool wet summers in a row, but it would be inaccurate to say that there were no warm dry sunny months, except over limited areas of the country. June 1986 was a warm dry sunny month over many parts of the country, and in most parts of Scotland and the far north of England June 1988 achieved this distinction.

July 1988 was indeed the classic "unsettled active Atlantic month" with only eastern Scotland and north-east England having temperatures and/or sunshine near normal and everywhere being very wet, but the month in that four-year period that sticks out for me is June 1987. Averaged nationally the dullest June on record, one of the wettest, and the mean maxima were among the lowest on record.

Last year's summer is often lumped together with the previous two but I think this is largely undeserved, and perhaps an indication that expectations are so high that an average summer is percieved to be poor. Averaged nationally it was quite a wet summer, but with temperatures slightly above average and sunshine near average. Notably, a surprisingly high number of complaints about last year's summer are coming from East Anglia and the southeast where most places were warmer, drier and sunnier than average.

Agree with your last points. Last year wasn't in the same league as 2007 and 2008, it was preety average sunshine and temp wise though with a bit more rain than would have been liked. The last three summers have been very poor during what is high summer i.e. mid July to mid August..

The very good summers of 2003, 2005 and 2006 alongside the warm but wetter 2004 still linger in many memories, people seem like they won't be happy unless a summer like those years is recorded.

I bet the same thing is likely to happen in the coming winters, i.e. people won't be happy unless a winter like 2009/2010 occurs, average winters like average summers just won't do..

Thinking ahead to the summer I just hope for a drier more settled summer than the past three with some long decent sunny dry spells. I don't care for heatwaves, maxes of 20-21 degrees suit me fine, what is more important is dry settled weather, a wet humid thundery day with 25 degrees is no good to anyone and personally temps above 30 degrees are not welcomed they sap my energy and are generally too uncomfortable for doing outdoor exercise.

Edited March 28, 2010 by damianslaw