Spring / Summer 2010

[Weather-history]

Notable Manchester winters based on the index and the following summers' indices

1962-63: 501; summer 1963: 194

1978-79: 262; summer 1979: 199

2009-10: 197; summer 2010:?

1985-86: 159; summer 1986: 189

1981-82: 149; summer 1982: 203

1976-77: 141; summer 1977: 223

1984-85: 140; summer 1985: 180

1995-96: 135; summer 1996: 245

1990-91: 126; summer 1991: 207

2008-09: 105; summer 2009: 197

1986-87: 100; summer 1987: 169

Compare to

1975-76: 41; summer 1976: 301

1994-95: 45; summer 1995: 297

[Bottesford]

It does make me laugh seeing people sitting outside shedding layers making out it is a baking midday sun in the middle of March. Some people walk around in shorts and t-shirts as soon as the sun appears (but still with obvious goose-pimples). It seems very OTT and a bit ridiculous really Don't get me wrong, despite my appreciation of cold weather, the recent sunshine has been very welcome and come the summer proper then some pleasantly warm sunshine will be very welcome - but I find this immediate post winter phase rather absurd in that some people start acting like it is a sudden switch into summer when temps are in fact only just about to hit double figures!!

Yes it can be a bit silly but then I think many people are so desperate for warmth & sun now they take any small hint of it as something to relish before it (perhaps) turns cack again. There's something psychologically good about needing less layers, being able to open windows and not needing the fire on after a very long and cold winter.

Spring is like coming up for air after being drowned in gloom & miserable weather for over four months!

[Thundery wintry showers]

In Geordieland people have a reputation for wearing shorts and T-shirts regardless of the weather!

[Snowyowl9]

I`m looking forward to seeing any rain even though we do need some really,it`ll just make everything all wet and mucky again after this very nice dry spell cold at night.

Some warm rain in a small dose maybe.

Think it will get colder 2nd half of the this month though,snow/sleet/cold rain will probably come back.

[Derp Patrol]

2 weeks and 1 day and sunset will be back to a respectable time - around 7:30pm It's great looking on the BBC forecasts to finally see some double figures and 2s on the UV index showing up, even Wednesday has a max temp of 14C showing which would be long overdue and welcomed by many

[Milhouse]

2 weeks and 1 day and sunset will be back to a respectable time - around 7:30pm It's great looking on the BBC forecasts to finally see some double figures and 2s on the UV index showing up, even Wednesday has a max temp of 14C showing which would be long overdue and welcomed by many

Its amazing how quick the turn around has been in a couple of weeks from cold and wet to mild and really quite dry. The ground has really dried up in the past 2 weeks despite it not being that warm. All of a sudden i'm contemplating doing outdoor things this week that wouldnt have been possible back in February.

[lukemc]

Hi,

Do you think that if this spring stays predominately mild it could mean a warm or hot summer to follow? Yes I know we had a warm spring in 2007 which was followed by a poor summer but it could prove that temperatures are on the rise and the transition towards the summer months is underway - is the weather pattern we are in at the moment more typical for El Nino and isn't that expected to last into early Summer? So if this pattern continues I could expect a rather warm first half to summer including May. As we all know 2007 resulted from a stong La Nina pattern, and I do think that it will take a while for an El Nino pattern to wind down.

A question. I have heared some this forum and other forums mention the theory that being at a solar minimum makes a poor summer more likely? Personally I do not think that that is true because I would think that as long as we have the right synoptics the strong insolation at that time of year will mean that high temperatures are still possible - also wasn't the hot summer of 1995 at a solar minimum? - and 1995 was a hot summer both here and in the USA and across most of the NH I would have thought aswell? - as this graph shows:

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/images/solarcycleupdate/ssn_predict_l.gif

That also shows the solar minimum has already peaked and solar activity is currently on the rise again so if we did get a poor summer this year I don't think sunspots will be to blame.

Luke

[SteveB]

Hi,

Do you think that if this spring stays predominately mild it could mean a warm or hot summer to follow? Yes I know we had a warm spring in 2007 which was followed by a poor summer but it could prove that temperatures are on the rise and the transition towards the summer months is underway - is the weather pattern we are in at the moment more typical for El Nino and isn't that expected to last into early Summer? So if this pattern continues I could expect a rather warm first half to summer including May. As we all know 2007 resulted from a stong La Nina pattern, and I do think that it will take a while for an El Nino pattern to wind down.

A question. I have heared some this forum and other forums mention the theory that being at a solar minimum makes a poor summer more likely? Personally I do not think that that is true because I would think that as long as we have the right synoptics the strong insolation at that time of year will mean that high temperatures are still possible - also wasn't the hot summer of 1995 at a solar minimum? - and 1995 was a hot summer both here and in the USA and across most of the NH I would have thought aswell? - as this graph shows:

http://science.nasa....n_predict_l.gif

That also shows the solar minimum has already peaked and solar activity is currently on the rise again so if we did get a poor summer this year I don't think sunspots will be to blame.

Luke

My understanding is solar activity may have peaked & could be on the decline with a possible blank Sun again by July.

http://daltonsminima.wordpress.com/

[Eugene]

I already get the feeling Spring 2010 will be very frustrating for some, not cold enough for snow but also not warm or sunny enough for others.

[AderynCoch]

It should be noted that 1995 had a very strong La Niña episode, though I'm sceptical as to how much of a factor the ENSO is on our climate, what with us being right the other side of the planet.

[Weather-history]

Notable Manchester winters based on the index and the following summers' indices

1962-63: 501; summer 1963: 194

1978-79: 262; summer 1979: 199

2009-10: 197; summer 2010:?

1985-86: 159; summer 1986: 189

1981-82: 149; summer 1982: 203

1976-77: 141; summer 1977: 223

1984-85: 140; summer 1985: 180

1995-96: 135; summer 1996: 245

1990-91: 126; summer 1991: 207

2008-09: 105; summer 2009: 197

1986-87: 100; summer 1987: 169

Compare to

1975-76: 41; summer 1976: 301

1994-95: 45; summer 1995: 297

I'm surprised this hasn't drawn a comment as it doesn't look promising not at least around here. Summer 1996, the best of the bunch in that list but its odd how if you drew up a list of memorable summers, 1996 would not be high up on the list. Summer 1995 eclipsed that summer but it was a pretty reasonable summer.

Edited March 18, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Thundery wintry showers]

I certainly enjoyed Summer 1996 in Tyneside, and I think sunshine wise only 2006 has produced similar or higher summer-quarter totals in subsequent years, both in that area of the country and over England and Wales as a whole. I reckon it's indeed because it was eclipsed by 1995, much in the way that 1975 is often forgotten because it was eclipsed by 1976.

[Weather-history]

I certainly enjoyed Summer 1996 in Tyneside, and I think sunshine wise only 2006 has produced similar or higher summer-quarter totals in subsequent years, both in that area of the country and over England and Wales as a whole. I reckon it's indeed because it was eclipsed by 1995, much in the way that 1975 is often forgotten because it was eclipsed by 1976.

If the summer of 1995 and 1996 had been subsituted with each other ie summer 1995 happened in 1996 and summer 1996 in 1995 then I think we would have suffered a very severe drought during summer 1996 probably worse than summer 1976.

[North-Easterly Blast]

If the summer of 1995 and 1996 had been subsituted with each other ie summer 1995 happened in 1996 and summer 1996 in 1995 then I think we would have suffered a very severe drought during summer 1996 probably worse than summer 1976.

Why do you say that Kevin. Many parts of the country suffered a severe drought in the summer of 1995 with water shortages and rationing in many areas, but no drought problems were seen in the summer of 1996 for most, which was a largely dry and sunny summer for many areas though the CETs were nothing too warm. Summer 1995 certainly suffered a drought almost on a par with 1976 which is something that was not seen in the very hot summers of 2003 and 2006 at least on a large scale.

Edited March 18, 2010 by North-Easterly Blast

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's because the winter of 1994/95 was very wet which wasn't generally true of 1995/96. The wet winter helped alleviate the drought problems in 1995.

[Weather-history]

Why do you say that Kevin. Many parts of the country suffered a severe drought in the summer of 1995 with water shortages and rationing in many areas, but no drought problems were seen in the summer of 1996 for most, which was a largely dry and sunny summer for many areas though the CETs were nothing too warm. Summer 1995 certainly suffered a drought almost on a par with 1976 which is something that was not seen in the very hot summers of 2003 and 2006 at least on a large scale.

Hosepipe ban began here in the NW or at least the Manchester area on the 17th August 1995 (when infact the height of that summer had largely passed) and didn't end until 22nd October 1996.

So there were restrictions during summer 1996.

Winter 1994-95 was the 4th wettest summer on record for England and Wales (a fact that is often forgotten) so that as TWS said alleviate somewhat the drought of summer 1995.

Edited March 18, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Weather-history]

Only 3mm of rainfall has been recorded up to 17th of March for England and Wales.

We got virtually got no rain from yesterday's system here apart from a few drops of rain. Its very dry and dusty now, last real decent rainfall around here was 3 weeks ago, today.

[AderynCoch]

Only 3mm of rainfall has been recorded up to 17th of March for England and Wales.

We got virtually got no rain from yesterday's system here apart from a few drops of rain. Its very dry and dusty now, last real decent rainfall around here was 3 weeks ago, today.

That's set to change tonight. In fact, it looks like our part of the country might bear the brunt of it.

I remember the hosepipe ban well - it really did last for a long time. Summer 1995 was also the first time I heard of Summer 1976 due to the countless comparisons being made. I don't know how severe the drought was round here in 1976 (I wasn't around back then) but unlike 1995 it was the culmination of a string of very dry months following on from the previous year.

Edited March 19, 2010 by AderynCoch

[damianslaw]

Only 3mm of rainfall has been recorded up to 17th of March for England and Wales.

We got virtually got no rain from yesterday's system here apart from a few drops of rain. Its very dry and dusty now, last real decent rainfall around here was 3 weeks ago, today.

Yes it has been a very dry March so far. Parts of the Lake District have suffered from localised heath fires due to the tinder dry conditions. The cold has not helped in this sense as it has only hardened the ground further.

We did get some short lived heavy rain yesterday, however, we need a good wet spell in the next few days to prevent similiar conditions. The next few days do look unsettled and often wet which will help but will it be wet enough?

[Eugene]

How people forget the above average February rainfall wise and its been wet today with plenty more to come based on tonights model output.

Not the most encouraging summer forecast by weatheronline it must be said.

http://www.weatheron...it&DAY=20100320

Edited March 20, 2010 by Eugene

[damianslaw]

How people forget the above average February rainfall wise and its been wet today with plenty more to come based on tonights model output.

Not the most encouraging summer forecast by weatheronline it must be said.

http://www.weatheron...it&DAY=20100320

Not everywhere saw above average rainfall last month, indeed NW England and much of western Scotland saw appreciably below average rainfall. This month so far has been very dry in the NW.

[MP-R]

Not everywhere saw above average rainfall last month, indeed NW England and much of western Scotland saw appreciably below average rainfall. This month so far has been very dry in the NW.

And here, February's rainfall total was nothing special. January and February were pretty much the same, with February just topping that of January.

[lukemc]

How people forget the above average February rainfall wise and its been wet today with plenty more to come based on tonights model output.

Not the most encouraging summer forecast by weatheronline it must be said.

http://www.weatheron...it&DAY=20100320

Isn't this a bit too far out to making an accurate forecast for this summer, remember we are still only in March and that forecast doesn't even include May which can bring warm spells too (remember the warm spell we got in May 2008 I thought that was warm and humid and we got a good thunderstorm from it too). I am just wondering what they are basing that forecast on? It is not like their is currently a signal for most of June to be cool and wet? And the second half of July too? Is the forecast based on a weakening El Nino trending neutral and even towards a weak El Nina? Or the jetstream being so far south (further south than average) over the winter period and expecting that to continue into summer? Maybe the saving grace is that they expect a settled and warm/hot spell at the beginning of June, again at the end of June and beginning of July, and then another warm spell in the middle of July (which seems to be around my birthday - 18th July) and then again in mid August so if that came of I don't think it seems as bad as I initially thought when I first read it - it seems more like they are expecting a "mixed" summer rather than a "poor/cool/wet" summer similar to the last summer with quite a few opportunities for 30C to be reached based on that forecast.

Luke

[summer blizzard]

I agree in that it is far too early to see what is going to happen this summer, everybody has their own forecasting method though, right now i am not prepared to say anything other than 2003 could be a strong anologue and that i see a signal for the second half of May to be hot.

[Derp Patrol]

Definately warmer now, when the sun comes out it feels really nice.

My cherry tree is starting to blossom, as are a few trees down my road now. I can't wait to see some green again!