Spring / Summer 2010

[RichardR]

With all due respect, if you think July 2006 was mediocre, then you're living in the wrong country. The average sunshine in Buxton in July is around 180 hours, so to get 'only 280 hours' (or more than 9 hours per day) is exceptional. The mean maximum temperature was also more than 3.5C above average. How is the average temperature near Heathrow any indication of how a month as been 100 miles away?

The sunshine was exceptional that's right. Otherwise what I meant to say was the temperature in Buxton that month (while higher than Buxton's average a lot) was only similar to long term average values for near Heathrow where I lived before so it didn't seem "hot" to me, whereas had I still been living down there it would have been.

Point being it takes a big heatwave for the rest of England to get a passable summer month in the much colder Buxton microclimate.

Edited April 1, 2010 by RichardR

[Wynn D Woo]

The sunshine was exceptional that's right. Otherwise what I meant to say was the temperature in Buxton that month (while higher than Buxton's average a lot) was only similar to long term average values for near Heathrow where I lived before so it didn't seem "hot" to me, whereas had I still been living down there it would have been.

Point being it takes a big heatwave for the rest of England to get a passable summer month in the much colder Buxton microclimate.

Surely a heatwave is all relative to your position otherwise 2006 was poor in comparison to the Sahara say :lol:

I think you had better move back to the South East if an area reaching over 3C its norm is disappointing to you.

[Thundery wintry showers]

July 2006 in northern England and the higher parts of the Midlands may not have been exceptional heat-wise by Heathrow standards but it certainly was sunshine wise. Heathrow's average sunshine in July is approximately 200 hours, so 280 hours would be 40% above the Heathrow average.

[Derp Patrol]

I understand what you mean... I live a few miles from Heathrow, probably the hottest area in the UK in summer. On average, max temps are between 21C-24C in July, and rarely below 20C. I remember once going to Newcastle in July where it was about 15C, compared to 24C back in Heathrow and it gave me quite a shock! It goes to show what a few hundred miles can do.

[Summer of 95]

Looking at the Metoffice data:

The lack of sunshine in the 2000s summers for Shropshire can be seen when April 2007 was sunnier than any June or August, and all but one July, of the decade at Shawbury. In fact 2006 is the only July since the change of sensor in 2001 to even make 150 hours, let alone 200- even if the CS sensor read 20% higher on average that means only 1 July out of 8 over 180, which is apparently the long term average for the much cooler Buxton. I can remember discussing the lack of very sunny months in this area in recent summers a few months ago, and every time I look at the data it seems to stand out even more, even taking the sensor change into account. The lack of sunny Mays compared to the 1990s- the "cold and dull" May 1996 was sunnier than the supposedly warm and sunny 2008- is also noticeable.

Since what I consider to be the end of the 1997-2002 "pluvial" in early 2003, 8 months have topped 100mm rain, 7 of them in the May-August period. 2006 excepted this has not been a good last decade for summers here!

[summer blizzard]

Just an update, i have had a look at the data for the QBO, AO and ENSO for March, and i feel that the prospects for the late spring/early summer period are not particually good, though thankfully nothing disasterous as per 2007.

This is essentially because El Nino has begun to weaken, while the easterly QBO is still strengthening, this is in effect maintaining a moderately negative long term AO signal, thus giving a bias towards an average to cool May and June in particular.

Unfortunately, there were no strong anologues in the data, so forecasting what will happen to El Nino, and also when the easterly QBO will peak is quite hard, though assuming a record event will not occur, i can say that the QBO peak will occur anytime between now and November, and also that neutral ENSO conditions are being forecast for the late summer, early Autumn period, this essentially means that we need either El Nino to hang on, or the QBO to peak.

In conclusion, 2010 will feature its potential in late summer, and is unlikely to be outstanding.

Could anybody give us an update in regards to the QBO and ENSO situation??

[Thundery wintry showers]

In the Tyne & Wear/Durham area the decline in summer sunshine has also been notable. Judging by a combination of the Met Office maps and Durham University statistics (even allowing for the Durham change of sensor), the Julys of 1989-1991, 1994-1997 and 1999 were almost certainly sunnier than 9 out of the 10 Julys of the 2000s. August sunshine has also declined significantly since the 1990s with no August to approach those of 1990 and 1995 (even August 1996 might have beaten every August of the 2000s), while June has stayed approximately the same.

However in the case of Tyneside there is no obvious sign of a decline in May sunshine, with no notably dull ones, and a notably sunny one in 2001.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Is there a spring equivalent of an Indian Summer?

[ribster]

Actually for Shropshire I would completely agree with you regarding July 2009. The disagreement may well stem partly from the fact that I'm taking the country as a whole rather than the Shropshire area, and also partly from the fact that Norwich (where I was) fared much better than most other parts of the country, in the sense of having warm temperatures, above average sunshine and only moderately above average rainfall.

I have little doubt that I'd have been one of those vilifying the month if I'd spent it anywhere in Wales, the west Midlands or south-west England.

The country as a whole as I understand it (England) was 239% above average rainfall, and Norfolk as a whole had well above average rainfall, it was only areas to the east of the region that were spared. Although the exception to that was Beccles, just 20 miles from Norwich to the SE had it's highest rainfall since 1968. I'm afraid Norwich was not representative of the region.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think Norwich probably had above average rainfall as well (it was August that was dry here), but I was thinking also of the temperatures and sunshine. Did other parts of the region similarly lose out on temperatures and sunshine?

[Ben_Cambs]

I think Norwich probably had above average rainfall as well (it was August that was dry here), but I was thinking also of the temperatures and sunshine. Did other parts of the region similarly lose out on temperatures and sunshine?

In July 09, 108.1mm fell in Cambridge, I would say though that a majority of the rainfall in July was represented uover a small amount of days, on the 17th 37mm of rain fell, but I agree between this, there was a decent amount of sunshine for EA, and it felt very warm out in the sun, there were 7 days with Thundery showers so I expect that also contributed a lot to the total rainfall amount too. So with despite some very wet days in July 09, there were some days that were very warm and pleasant with decent amounts of sunshine.

[William of Walworth]

Can I gently request that we start talking about prospects for THIS summer (2010) now that the first summer/seasonal foreecast has been put up on Netweather??

Thanks .... I'm all for chat about past summers, but for many of us it's going to be this one that's now most important ...

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

Edited April 15, 2010 by William of Walworth

[SP1986]

It seems in history that record warm global year have resulted in poor summers for the UK?

1998 was the warmest global year on record but did we not get a totally unispiring and largely wet summer?

The summer in 1988 was not so good was it, and it was one of the warmest years on record wasn't it it?

2009 was the 5th global warmest year on record in the end? poor summer for us..?

Now there are suggestions that 2010 may be in the top 5 of warmest global years on record, UK gets it's fourth poor summer.

Forget ice ages, global cooling and rubbish like that, but it does seems UK is stuck in a period of very localised potent cooling.

This post may well be very ill informed, but maybe the point isn't :lol:

[La Bise]

There was something about this on the BBC website recently Stephen, possibly related to the Maunder Minimum which has started in the mid 80's that brings a cooling across northern europe where the kind of blocking we had this winter is the strongest but globally the planet is still warming.

[William of Walworth]

Over the last three summers in the UK (generally less than great), were we not constantly talking on these forums about how far South the Jetstream was tracking?

Whether or not this coming summer will be as indifferent as the Netweather forecast is starting to suggest**, will largely depend (surely) on where the Jet decides to settle down, and how much the Atlantic will be driving our weather patterns. Or not ...

**And I'm far from convinced yet that summer 2010 will be all that bad at all, overall, but that may be hopecasting on my part ...

Are there any early suggestions for 2010 concerning these questions, from which the more technical of our members can read the upcoming runes?

Is there also not a risk that we might assume too much, mostly from recent summer precedents, that this one will be a repeat??

Not necessarily say I!

Edited April 19, 2010 by William of Walworth

[SP1986]

Is it hugely a bad thing if we assume the summer will be asbolutely rubbish, I mean it does very much play on a psychological level. After 2006 I imagine the expectation from many was that 2007 was going to be a half decent summer at least.

At least if we assumed this summer was going to be rubbish, if it does, so what? it was the expectation, and if turns out to be decent, then it's a nice surprise.

[AderynCoch]

Is it hugely a bad thing if we assume the summer will be asbolutely rubbish, I mean it does very much play on a psychological level. After 2006 I imagine the expectation from many was that 2007 was going to be a half decent summer at least.

At least if we assumed this summer was going to be rubbish, if it does, so what? it was the expectation, and if turns out to be decent, then it's a nice surprise.

My feelings exactly. I'm fully prepared for the worst.

As regards your earlier post, January 2008 was anomalously cool on a global level in spite of being relentlessly mild here. In fact, it was the snowiest on record for the northern hemisphere since records began in 1967 (I know, but still):

http://www.ncdc.noaa...jan-2008-pg.gif

Then again, December 2006/January 2007 was almost completely devoid of anything approaching winter not only here but across the northern hemisphere. New York for instance had its latest first snowfall of the winter on record (10th January) and reached 22C on 6th January.

I've always been sceptical as to how a mechanism of the Sun's scale can cause such localised effects on Earth. True, if solar activity has a direct effect on ocean currents then Western Europe will feel the knock-on effects more (as they are so much a part of our climate), but then so should places like Vancouver which have felt the full force of a globally-mild January.

[Derp Patrol]

The 2009 summer was not in the same category as the previous two in my opinion, but that's probably more on a local scale. Last July here recorded a mean of 17.8C (-0.7) which was the only below average month, with the June coming in at 16.7C (+0.5) and August bang on average at 18.3C.

June and August both had only about 70% of the average rainfall at about 33mm, but this was ruined by July which recorded 144% rainfall.

I don't have sunshine figures, but that seemed to be one thing that was lacking last summer and in the previous two. It was not a great summer, but not as bad as the other two

[damianslaw]

The 2009 summer was not in the same category as the previous two in my opinion, but that's probably more on a local scale. Last July here recorded a mean of 17.8C (-0.7) which was the only below average month, with the June coming in at 16.7C (+0.5) and August bang on average at 18.3C.

June and August both had only about 70% of the average rainfall at about 33mm, but this was ruined by July which recorded 144% rainfall.

I don't have sunshine figures, but that seemed to be one thing that was lacking last summer and in the previous two. It was not a great summer, but not as bad as the other two

The true summer month i.e. July has been the greatest let down in the past three years consistently wet and cool, August has also been relatively poor i.e. very cloudy. Septembers have been much better in terms of dry sunny settled weather which is what you want from the summer not necessarily hot.

[BlueHedgehog074]

To me, I thought August last year was an alright month, but I think it could be argued that the South-Eastern areas saw the best of the settled weather that month with above average sunshine.

Aside from September 2000, (which was rather wet with over 139mm of rainfall), I think it is true that most Septembers have had a good Summery feel to them with some good passages of sunshine and dry weather. September 2009, particulary, was good at showing this.

I think this Summer will be, overall, generally more settled compared to the last few, and with the Atlantic blocking being quite apparent this year, I feel this will continue into the Summer and prevent Atlantic systems constantly crossing the United Kingdom. I imagine the positioning of the Jetstream(s) may have an effect on this, too.

WeatherOnline and the NetWeather.tv long range forcasts seem keen for a fairly settled June, although some possible disturbances in the weather pattern later on could mean a different story for July. The confidence for these forcasts are low at the moment, but could still be an indication to what is to come.

On the other hand, should this April end up becoming a very settled and dry month, this could mean that quite a wet, and/or a very mixed Summer ahead (though I would not neccesarily mind the latter).

[William of Walworth]

Far earlier on this thread, there was a link to an old Telegraph article by Philip Eden (from 2007 I think) which suggested that there might be a link between an unusually settled April and much less settled high summers.

I don't know how much real store to set by that theory, but I for one am hoping that we start to lose this current settled spell very soon -- just in case!

I agree with robthefool that 2009 wasn't all that unsummery compared to 2007 and 2008, but most of us summerlovers could still do with a marked improvement, with much more in the way of anticyclonic influence and far less in the way of Atlantic driven, Jet driven activity.

If Rainbowsnow's suggestion above of a possible settled June comes true, then I for one will be very happy.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Far earlier on this thread, there was a link to an old Telegraph article by Philip Eden (from 2007 I think) which suggested that there might be a link between an unusually settled April and much less settled high summers.

I don't know how much real store to set by that theory, but I for one am hoping that we start to lose this current settled spell very soon -- just in case!

I agree with robthefool that 2009 wasn't all that unsummery compared to 2007 and 2008, but most of us summerlovers could still do with a marked improvement, with much more in the way of anticyclonic influence and far less in the way of Atlantic driven, Jet driven activity.

If Rainbowsnow's suggestion above of a possible settled June comes true, then I for one will be very happy.

Yeah, I think to be on the safe side, an unsettled end to April would not be such a bad idea just in case that April theory was definitly true. It seems that the last few years have shown elements of this happening, with the unsettled showery theme in April/May 2006 giving away to a dryer, brighter Summer. But I hope that this Summer will be an exception to the rule.

Thanks for telling about the link - I will have a look at that sometime.

[summer blizzard]

Statistically, summer 2009 was nationally actually above average, as opposed to summers 2007 and 2008 which were both below average, though July 2009 was both cooler and wetter than average.

In regards to extrapolating what this summer will be like from one month, there has been no real link to be found between April and any of the summer months, though i personally expect a wet June, though i will almost certainly be predicting a warm May given the signals for next week onwards.

[SP1986]

2003 crushes the dry April = a cool summer, however it might depend on wind direction. It's difficult to know, but personally I'm still going for very cool and wet, we'll see though.

[Devon-Nelly]

I think this summer could end up being in a similar vain to 2005, with spells of cool wet weather but also some decent spells of very warm dry weather. But it is proving a difficult one to call this year, i think its going to boil down to what the NAO does week on week.

I have been looking back at the QBO status over previous summers and i have manged to find a pattern between the NAO and -QBO status. During -QBO summers the more close to Neutral the NAO is the more settled and warmer the summers have been and the more Neative or Positive the NAO the more wetter and cooler. So if the NAO nose dives or goes negative by a big enough margin then very wet and cool weather will be more likely but if it stays near neutral/slightly positive like it has been at times this month then warm dry weather will be more likely (hence the reason why i think april has been so dry and settled, coupled with the weak jet stream)

I was convinced we were going to see a warm summer last year due mainly to the weak el Nino but alas after the nice warm June it didn't quite pan out that way, although south and eastern areas got a fairly decent summer.