Spring / Summer 2010

[Eugene]

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/4/20100427/tuk-hottest-day-of-the-year-predicted-dba1618.html

Talk about OTT, temps around 20C arent unsual for late April at all and i would hardly call it hot either, everytime the temps hit 20C/21C in almost late Spring they call it hot, europe must be lauhging at us as that would be just a warm pleasant day for them.

[Derp Patrol]

http://uk.news.yahoo...ed-dba1618.html

Talk about OTT, temps around 20C arent unsual for late April at all and i would hardly call it hot either, everytime the temps hit 20C/21C in almost late Spring they call it hot, europe must be lauhging at us as that would be just a warm pleasant day for them.

I agree.. I also don't understand why they have to call it 'unseasonal' as it's not.. it's quite common to have a switch around between cool and warm at this time of year. Especially in my area where the report is aimed at, we have reached 22C or higher in every April I can remember.

[damianslaw]

I agree.. I also don't understand why they have to call it 'unseasonal' as it's not.. it's quite common to have a switch around between cool and warm at this time of year. Especially in my area where the report is aimed at, we have reached 22C or higher in every April I can remember.

The term 'warm' is used differently in the Spring compared to the summer , high teens in March and April are normally referred to as warm, whereas by June they get described as average or mild or just pleasant, low 20's then get referred to as warm.

I would describe early 20's temps as warm whatever the time of year even in high summer, for the majority of the country away from the SE temps above 20 degrees in high summer are just above the average. Anything above 25 degrees I describe as very warm, 30+ hot.

[Geordiesnow]

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/4/20100427/tuk-hottest-day-of-the-year-predicted-dba1618.html

Talk about OTT, temps around 20C arent unsual for late April at all and i would hardly call it hot either, everytime the temps hit 20C/21C in almost late Spring they call it hot, europe must be lauhging at us as that would be just a warm pleasant day for them.

According to BBC weather, the average for this time of year is 13C so 20C is 7 degrees above average! Whilst 20-21C is not something i would describe as "hot" it is certainly well above average. I think they should of used the term warm instead of hot but i suppose 20-21C in April can be describe as hot as it is well above average.

It be interesting too see what the forecasters say regarding the temperatures potentially coming up this weekend, i can bet someone like Louise Lear will decribe 11C as cold!

[Milhouse]

According to BBC weather, the average for this time of year is 13C so 20C is 7 degrees above average! Whilst 20-21C is not something i would describe as "hot" it is certainly well above average. I think they should of used the term warm instead of hot but i suppose 20-21C in April can be describe as hot as it is well above average.

7c below average at this time of year would give just 6c which would be regarded by many on here as remarkably cold for the time of year as something like that very rarely happens in late April. So at the other end of the scale widespread maxes of 20c should be regarded as significant too. Its very common for somewhere to record 20c in April but yesterday it was recorded right up the east coast as far as Newcastle.

[reef]

The warmth has definitely been notable here. The max yesterday of 20.7C was the 8th warmest April day in 27 years and last night's min temp of 12.6C was the 2nd warmest in April in the same timeframe. These temperatures are more expected in July so its definitely impressive to see them in the middle of spring.

Compared to the 1971-2000 mean here the max is 8.8C above average and the min 8.2C above average!

[Summer of 95]

I'd say 1940 is our nearest pattern image to this year which had the following CET with 2010s figure in brackets;

November 1939 8.7c (8.7c)

December 1939 3.2c (3.1c)

January -1.4c (1.4c)

February 2.6c (2.8c)

March 6.0c (6.1c)

April 8.7c (9.X)

May 12.5c

June 16.4c

July 15.1c

August 15.6c

September 12.8c

October 9.6c

November 6.9c

December 3.8c

This is what I based 12.2c on for my May CET. I suspect it will be a very warm May and June but dissapointing rest of the summer and going into Autumn.

August 1940= 15.2mm E/W rain, 181 hrs sunshine- doesn't seem a bad month. Low CET due mainly to cool dry clear nights? June 1940 with 16.4C, 21.2mm and 275 hrs sun would easily be the best one I could remember if it were to be repeated. Looks like July ruined what was otherwise a decent summer.

[Eugene]

20C/21C i don't think can be refered to as hot in late April, 29C has been reached in in mid April and 20C is quite easy to achieve in early April, 30C+ has been reached in May.

Not much time difference at all between the dates of April 27th/28th and dates in the first 10 days of May and 20C/21C can't really be called hot then.

Edited April 30, 2010 by Eugene

[Eugene]

I agree.. I also don't understand why they have to call it 'unseasonal' as it's not.. it's quite common to have a switch around between cool and warm at this time of year. Especially in my area where the report is aimed at, we have reached 22C or higher in every April I can remember.

Thanks for agreeing with me, yes its not unseasonal at all what is unseasonal is almost 20C in mid February 1998 a good two and a half months later 20C/21C not really that notable at all even as far north as scotland, Trevor Harley who has an excellent weather section on his site his definition of almost 22C for very early April 2001 is a warm start so in no way can 20C/21C be called hot near the end of April when those temps are much more likely.

April. Overall, quite cold: the equal coldest (with 1998) since 1989. It had a warm start: 21.5C reached in London and 21C in East Anglia on the 2nd,

[William of Walworth]

Anyone have any views on the very recently updated Netweather seasonal forecast?

May could turn out quite a shocker for many, if that forecast is accurate .... less bad thereafter though.

[PhilA]

Yes - and it's thoroughly depressing!!

We've had three successive indifferent-poor summers since 2007, and it's beginning to look like 2010 may follow suit. April was passable, but could have been better, but May so far has been awful, with no relief in sight, if Netweather's predictions are correct.

This year-on-year trend is not good news for those elements of our wildlife that depend on good spring sunshine and temperature levels to get their brood developing. I'm thinking especially of certain invertebrate groups. We could do with an exceptionally positive season to help things recover, but it looks like just more of the same is on the way!!

Since 2007, the position of the jetstream has been blamed for the generally poor summers; are there any data on what it may do this year??

Congrats on a great site, btw!

PhilA

Edited May 6, 2010 by PhilA

[Devon-Nelly]

I still think we're going to have a more average summer this year, maybe a cooler version of 2005? With cool wet periods alternating with warm /very warm dry spells.

[MP-R]

I still think we're going to have a more average summer this year, maybe a cooler version of 2005? With cool wet periods alternating with warm /very warm dry spells.

Well that wouldn't be a bad shout at all! May has started off in a similar vein to May 2005 and during the summer there was quiet diverse weather as you say. The 1st half of September was pretty decent too.

[damianslaw]

Well that wouldn't be a bad shout at all! May has started off in a similar vein to May 2005 and during the summer there was quiet diverse weather as you say. The 1st half of September was pretty decent too.

I was in NE England for summer 05 and overall it was a good summer. Generally warm or very warm throughout with long dry sunny periods, a summer similiar to 2005 would be very pleasing indeed, in fact I preferred 2005 to 2006 which became too oppressive at times..

September 2005 was very mild throughout and the warmth lasted through exceptionally mild October.

I'm not going to make any predictions about this summer other than I doubt very much it will bring record breaking warmth but also doubt it will be a washout like 2007, 2008, probably best to say an average one.

[SP1986]

There's nothing that can lead me away from my own opinion that it will be one of the coldest I've ever seen in my lifetime. I actually struggle to see my location getting above 25C this year, I think it'll be that bad. Might be a little better further southeast though, but another summer struggling to reach 30C anywhere looks likely in my eyes.

[Snowyowl9]

Interesting to compare May of just 2 years ago a very easterly month giving the warmest day of 24.1c on the 11th

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2008/Rrea00120080511.gif

To the coolest at 10.5c on the 16th.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2008/Rrea00120080516.gif

This month is just a very NE-ly to north then NW-ly looking month currently,with little variation in temps,on the chilly side.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I was in NE England for summer 05 and overall it was a good summer. Generally warm or very warm throughout with long dry sunny periods, a summer similiar to 2005 would be very pleasing indeed, in fact I preferred 2005 to 2006 which became too oppressive at times..

September 2005 was very mild throughout and the warmth lasted through exceptionally mild October.

I'm not going to make any predictions about this summer other than I doubt very much it will bring record breaking warmth but also doubt it will be a washout like 2007, 2008, probably best to say an average one.

I remember a lot of warm sunny weather from the 17th June 2005 through to the end of the month- a remarkable spell of weather really, with clear blue skies and light winds on many of the days. I also recall big thunderstorms affected the area on the 19th. There was a similar warm dry sunny 2nd week of July but I recall the summer being let down somewhat by the last third of July, which had almost no sun at all and persistently below-average maximum temperatures.

August 2005 got a bit of a bad reputation on N-W for frequent cool weather (a bit like May 2005 did) but it was certainly drier and sunnier than average.

[Derp Patrol]

There's nothing that can lead me away from my own opinion that it will be one of the coldest I've ever seen in my lifetime. I actually struggle to see my location getting above 25C this year, I think it'll be that bad. Might be a little better further southeast though, but another summer struggling to reach 30C anywhere looks likely in my eyes.

Last year we reached 30C or higher on 5 days and that was a relatively poor summer.

In 2008 we reached 30C or higher on 2 days, and 25C or higher on many and that was a terrible summer.

In 2007 we reached 30C or higher on 2 days and that was the worst summer in recent times.

30C is pretty much a guarantee somewhere each summer, it hasn't not happened for about 20 years I think. Even in poor summers such as the last 3, there have been some decent warm spells (although short) and 25C has not been hard to achieve here.

I really don't think that this will be a bad summer, I expect a slightly warmer than average one with below average rainfall. I think that for once we will have a good July.

[Devon-Nelly]

I'd personally be happy if every summer was like 2005, it was a right mixed bag something for everyone.

The second half of June was the most best part of the summer for me as it has to be one of the best periods of weather i've wintessed in the Uk, glorious sunshine temps in the low to mid 20's and a couple of violent spanish plumes to boot as well, my kind of summer weather lol.

We've not had anything along those lines since 2006.

To reach 30c is a big achievement for here, apart from 2003 we only managed it on one day in 2004 and on two in 2006. Temps rarely reach anything higher than 25c and when they do its normally just for the odd day, but with the humidity it normally feels just as hot anyways.

My hottest temps since 2003 have been:-

2003: 33c

2004: 30c

2005: 29c

2006: 30c (bit unsure of what the exact temp was but it was at least 30c)

2007: 25.7c

2008: 24.8c

2009: 26.6c

Edited May 8, 2010 by Devon-Nelly

[Don]

My hunch, and it is only a hunch is that the coming Summer could have a rather mediocre June and July followed by a decent August. Perhaps a similar Summer to that of 2002.

[SNOW GO]

JUST A GUESS SUMMER FORECAST BUT! I would go for if we dont stay in this current cool brr pattern or Iceland erupts and impacts on our climate, we should be in for an okay Summer period. If we are lucky we may see the first signs of a warm up in weather by Late May this is IF we are lucky however and if we stay in the current cool pattern we are unlikely to see a warm up till maybe even around mid June if the cool weather stays beyond that who knows!! . May temperature wise unless we see a unlikely but still possible late heatwave will certainly see temperatures fall below average. June I think will be average temperature wise with some rain at times but with some fine weather mixed in as well. The temperatures for June rely on how soon a warm up begins however. July I think will be a warm and humid month on the whole but with outbreaks of rain/potential thunderstorms for the second half of the month. Early-mid August could see the warmest day of the year as the humid conditions I think may continue whether it will be fine weather I dont know as the humid conditions like July may be the trigger for some thundery showers. This Summer though I think will be a bit of a waiting game to see what patterns develop but currently I dont think I would go for a BBQ or washout summer but temperatures above average in July and August are possible. In my opinion I think Summer 2010 looks like to be an average Joe in terms of Summers are concerned but as ever we can all be proved very wrong, a certain Met office springs to mind!!

[RichardR]

After all this bleeting about how the cold May will lead to a washout or cold summer, the synoptics will do a snap turnaround in early June and we will have the hottest summer on record. Severe droughts will lead to hose pipe bans again, and August will be the sunniest month on record with up to 450 hours of sun. 30c will be reached for 30 consecutive days somewhere in the UK, as a massive high pressure to the southeast pumps plume after plume of baking air over the UK. Unfortunately, lightning strikes from elevated storms will start heath fires, and sahara sand dust will blow in the wind and affect flights across europe, even stopping them altogether.

Edited May 8, 2010 by RichardR

[Wynn D Woo]

Last year we reached 30C or higher on 5 days and that was a relatively poor summer.

In 2008 we reached 30C or higher on 2 days, and 25C or higher on many and that was a terrible summer.

In 2007 we reached 30C or higher on 2 days and that was the worst summer in recent times.

30C is pretty much a guarantee somewhere each summer, it hasn't not happened for about 20 years I think. Even in poor summers such as the last 3, there have been some decent warm spells (although short) and 25C has not been hard to achieve here.

I really don't think that this will be a bad summer, I expect a slightly warmer than average one with below average rainfall. I think that for once we will have a good July.

We only just scraped 30C last year and it wasnt reached the previous two years. This year looks like it might again just miss.

[snowlover2009]

We only just scraped 30C last year and it wasnt reached the previous two years. This year looks like it might again just miss.

You say we scraped by very good luck. I remember that London at the end of june/july was predicted 29 to 32c for at least 5 consecutive days! so how did we only just scrape it, that was the best heat for a long time, mainly in the south for the heat, still not as good as heatwaves we usually get IMO.

[Derp Patrol]

After all this bleeting about how the cold May will lead to a washout or cold summer, the synoptics will do a snap turnaround in early June and we will have the hottest summer on record. Severe droughts will lead to hose pipe bans again, and August will be the sunniest month on record with up to 450 hours of sun. 30c will be reached for 30 consecutive days somewhere in the UK, as a massive high pressure to the southeast pumps plume after plume of baking air over the UK. Unfortunately, lightning strikes from elevated storms will start heath fires, and sahara sand dust will blow in the wind and affect flights across europe, even stopping them altogether.

Sounds brilliant to me! (minus the fires)