Spring / Summer 2010

[Methuselah]

This Summer........

........phew.....it's going to be a scorcher!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1278970/A-long-hot-summer-lies-ahead--say-forecasters-correctly-predicted-years-washout.html

:lol:

It aint often that I find myself wishing for a cool summer!

[Thundery wintry showers]

The article's statement

Positive Weather Solutions, the forecasting company who managed to correctly predict that last summer would be a wash-out

isn't entirely accurate because they predicted a scorcher in August.

[Eugene]

Wow i know recycling is popular but i didnt realise it related to old news stories from positive weather solutions, that hot summer forecast has been knocking around for ages.

What a load of nonsense that Daily Mail article is too making it sound like hot weather will last almost all of four months.

Edited May 19, 2010 by Eugene

[Eugene]

What i would really welcome now is some sunshine, i actually can't remember the last time we had a day which didnt cloud over and go bitterly cold.

Last Sunday was decent until around 2pm when it went cold and grey but that's about it for this month so far, even today which was forecast to be almost cloudless is currently overcast with nothing more than a 10 second glimpse of sunshine once every 20 minutes.

Wow i'm not that far from you and everytime i went for early morning walks in the countryside it has started clear and very cold soon warming up with blazing sunshine and plagues of flies buzzing around next to farmers fields, Aprils sunshine levels were way above and i am sure Mays are near average too maybe above, its been one of the best springs for years, do you moan just for the sake of it conor?

[Optimus Prime]

The article's statement

isn't entirely accurate because they predicted a scorcher in August.

Which they were correct in saying for the south and east.

I hate reading the comment section below the article. Always mentiones of Climate Change and Global Warming - What a sad society we have become.

[Thundery wintry showers]

As for complaining about spring, many on Netweather complain if spring is anything less than consistently warm and completely snow/frost free. The unusually cold first half of May seems to have completely erased memories of that warm, dry, exceptionally sunny April in many quarters.

Those complaining about the lack of major convective events this spring do have a strong case though- other than both ends of April, and the period 11th-17th May, there's been practically nothing, and what has occurred has tended to be weak and with only isolated thunder activity. Unless we get something significant in the coming fortnight it will probably go down as the most thunder-free spring across the country as a whole since at least 1996.

Btw I don't think August 2009 was a scorcher across the south and east- perhaps East Anglia and the southeast arguably had a scorcher in the third week, but for instance in the east of the northern two-thirds of England the emphasis was on warm, humid, often cloudy weather.

[Optimus Prime]

East Anglia had a hot sunny month by a long way;

August 2009

Mean Max 23.5c (9th highest on record)

Mean Min 12.9c (10th highest on record)

Mean 18.2c (+1.3c)

[BlueHedgehog074]

Must admit that the South-East did well during that month with the sunny spells helping to keep the temperatures up, although still amazed by the average temperatures some parts in that region reached.

Looks as though May could finish off on a warm( note, with perhaps a risk of more cooler and unsettled weather spilling in. (Sort of balancing my predicitons against both the GFS and ECMWF models). The Met Office outlook also sticking to a settled theme for a while, with a bit of showery weather around until more wet weather creeps in.

[Ben_Cambs]

Yes, that Daily Mail article is a pile of rubbish, they are trying to make out that last summer was awful for the whole country, when infact I thought last summer was good for my location, and many others in East Anglia at least would agree.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I must admit I found last summer quite enjoyable in East Anglia as well- I remember defending it in a couple of threads a while ago, it may even have been earlier in this one. I remember defending that wet July as having a good deal of exciting convection-based stuff down here and then of course we had that very fine spell that peaked in the third week of August.

Still, while I don't think it was a "washout" by any stretch of the imagination for this area of the country, I don't think it quite fell into the "scorcher" category either- I think when the papers say "scorcher" they're usually thinking along the lines of 1976 and 1995. August was certainly a warm one in eastern England though.

[damianslaw]

Reading one or two longer range summer forecasts it could be that we are going to see a much more settled summer in the main compared to the previous three thanks to strong ridging close to the west. This would support a continuation of the pattern we have been stuck in since mid december - not necessarily bringing any great warmth but lots of dry sunny blocked weather with average temps, and some cold nights relative to normal I suspect.

If the ridge is still in current situ come late June then chances are this pattern will hold firm for the majority of the rest of the summer. Mid-late June is when you need to take notice of likely signs for the rest of the summer, this being a pivotal period in the year when westerlies and the atlantic begin to strengthen after spring hibernation. Much like the christmas period which is often when patterns and trends for the rest of the winter are set.

Basing the summer forecast on what we have now is a bit of waste of time, late May and early June is a transitional period in the weather calandar often producing plenty of northerlies and easterlies before the atlantic and the jet begins to decide where and how it wants to come into play for the summer. I can remember many a cold start to June - 1991, 1995 being notable, in the latter case we had a major switcharound later in the month. I think of early June like early Dec very much a transitional period and normally much more akin to the season it has replaced, much the same can be said of early March and early Sept.

[noggin]

This Summer........

........phew.....it's going to be a scorcher!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1278970/A-long-hot-summer-lies-ahead--say-forecasters-correctly-predicted-years-washout.html

But, on the other hand (and I quote, from this morning's offering)......

........."there are no signs yet of a long hot Summer."

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1279772/After-heatwave-half-term-washout.html

So, what is it to be? Do we wait for tomorrow's offering and go for "the best of three"?

You've got to laugh really. It changes, literally from one day to the next!

[Eugene]

LOL, daily mail at it again now they are saying it'll be a late May bank holiday washout, alll i see is it getting cooler but still dry no washout at all.

http://www.dailymail...t.html?ITO=1490

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Good realistic forecast by UKMO using the words very warm and rather humid to correctly describe the weather until monday, no mention of the word hot or heatwave at all.

Edited May 20, 2010 by Eugene

[Weather-history]

Could turn out to be the coolest spring since 2001 for the CET.

[AderynCoch]

Could turn out to be the coolest spring since 2001 for the CET.

Even though it won't be that cold overall, with March and April both above the long-term average. It just goes to show how warm recent springs have been.

[summer blizzard]

Even though it won't be that cold overall, with March and April both above the long-term average. It just goes to show how warm recent springs have been.

March was 0.2C below average, and April only 0.7C above average, so we could actually get a below average spring.

[AderynCoch]

Sorry, I was using the long-term average. Even by 71-00 standards though it shouldn't be that notable.

[Cheese Rice]

What a ridiculous question. Of course its not. Even though it is a question, you give the impression that your just about ready write the summer off before its even begun. I have no doubt there will be plenty of better (ie warmer and more prolonged) spells of weather through the summer than this spell we have just had. Even if it is to be a cool summer its not like we aren't going to see spells of good, hot weather all the same even if they are rather infrequent.

Well I'm writing of this summer, although we shouldn't compare seasons and class them as trends there is a definite trend of wet (not necessarily cool) Summers and a trend of cold winters. As you are fully aware the UK has been influenced by blocking since December and recently at the high levels of Dec/Jan, northerlies appear to be becoming more frequent this year (compared to the last few years at least). All the signs point to a wet summer, although I agree there will be hot spells but one hot spell doesn't make a summer ie. last summer 6 days of hot weather, rest of the summer while warm was very wet, thus a poor summer.

Anyway a rather disappointing run, although I expected a northerly I was hoping it wouldn't occur so soon, at this rate it will be showing on Sunday. Day time temps look to be below average but nothing spectacularly so, probably 2-3.c below in the north and 1-2.c in the south. GFS is showing night time frosts but this is very unlikely, only in the most sheltered areas/ hollows are we likely to see frost, it will certainly be cold for May at night, and will hamper any evening activites. It shouldn't feel too bad though in the afternoon, will feel very pleasent in any sunshine.

[Kentish Kiwi]

After the soggy messes of previous summers you'd understand the question if you thought about it. Odds are after the previous wash outs we should get a decent summer but the weather recently has been a bit odd in it's pattern. One year I posted it's looking like a dry summer and it ended up being a record wet one for us.

As for how warm/hot Beeb mentioned 28C in the Midlands I think.

Well I'm writing of this summer, although we shouldn't compare seasons and class them as trends there is a definite trend of wet (not necessarily cool) Summers and a trend of cold winters. As you are fully aware the UK has been influenced by blocking since December and recently at the high levels of Dec/Jan, northerlies appear to be becoming more frequent this year (compared to the last few years at least). All the signs point to a wet summer, although I agree there will be hot spells but one hot spell doesn't make a summer ie. last summer 6 days of hot weather, rest of the summer while warm was very wet, thus a poor summer.

Anyway a rather disappointing run, although I expected a northerly I was hoping it wouldn't occur so soon, at this rate it will be showing on Sunday. Day time temps look to be below average but nothing spectacularly so, probably 2-3.c below in the north and 1-2.c in the south. GFS is showing night time frosts but this is very unlikely, only in the most sheltered areas/ hollows are we likely to see frost, it will certainly be cold for May at night, and will hamper any evening activites. It shouldn't feel too bad though in the afternoon, will feel very pleasent in any sunshine.

I guess it comes down to opinion in the end, although I would say its being extremely pessimistic and not to mention ignorant to simply write off the summer in May (although it does depend on what you define as 'writing off' the summer), that being similar to writing off the winter in November; which would rightly so be immediately argued against if it were brought up on these forums at that time of year.

Location is also probably a major factor in this argument, myself living much further south than the two of you, being in the south-east, and consequently my opinions on last summer are strongly contrasting to your own. Down here we had a very agreeable, dry and pleasant summer which followed on from a sunny, dry and settled spring with an exceptional June and as a result I would gladly take a repeat. However, I understand this would be against what a large proportion in the country would want, with those in the north and west having had an unsettled and cool summer, not having had the repeated continental influence we regularly saw.

[lukemc]

Well I'm writing of this summer, although we shouldn't compare seasons and class them as trends there is a definite trend of wet (not necessarily cool) Summers and a trend of cold winters. As you are fully aware the UK has been influenced by blocking since December and recently at the high levels of Dec/Jan, northerlies appear to be becoming more frequent this year (compared to the last few years at least). All the signs point to a wet summer, although I agree there will be hot spells but one hot spell doesn't make a summer ie. last summer 6 days of hot weather, rest of the summer while warm was very wet, thus a poor summer.

Anyway a rather disappointing run, although I expected a northerly I was hoping it wouldn't occur so soon, at this rate it will be showing on Sunday. Day time temps look to be below average but nothing spectacularly so, probably 2-3.c below in the north and 1-2.c in the south. GFS is showing night time frosts but this is very unlikely, only in the most sheltered areas/ hollows are we likely to see frost, it will certainly be cold for May at night, and will hamper any evening activites. It shouldn't feel too bad though in the afternoon, will feel very pleasent in any sunshine.

So do you think a poor summer this year is nailed on then? Do you really see it being 4 poor summers in a row with no improvement at all on the last 3 - remember if you look over the last 3 summers they have actually shown an improving trend since the dire wet summer of 2007, 2008 had more warm settled spells than 2007 and summer 2009 was better overall than 2008 for heat and sun so why wouldnt you expect maybe not a 1976 type summer but a slightly better one than last year this year? Also remember that cold winters are not necessarily followed by washout summers - 1947 was an example of that and poor summers are just as likley to follow mild winters than cold ones for example 2007 followed one of the mildest winters on record. Remember to we are in a prolonged dry spell at the moment and thier is nothing to suggest it will not continue and also that blocking does not mean wet weather infact often quite the opposite (HP domination). Do you consider the evidence againsed a decent summer to be overwhelming or something even 2 weeks before the start of official summer? Bit depressing for me to hear that news because I am not going away abroad this year so I really do need this summer to be an improvement on the last 3 for my own sanity LOL!

Luke

[William of Walworth]

Glad to see plenty of strong contradiction to this whole summer being so rashly written off now. See my somewhat annoyed latest post on this in the Model Output Discussion thread.

Overly long term 'writing off'-ism is very annoying, and bad weather practice too. (In my humble opinion anyway!)

Still plenty to play for in terms of more sun and more warmth this time, as damianslaw very correctly posts above ....

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think it would be a very bad idea to write off the summer based on a recurring pattern of northerly winds. The northerlies in the second week of June 1995 was the last in a long succession of northerlies which started in March (and often with warm anticyclonic weather in between- much like the current interlude). After that, with the sole exception of a sluggish 2-day northerly at the start of July, northerlies were absent until the 27th August.

We could also draw parallels with 1975- that was a genuinely cold spring, with frequent cold northerlies and north-easterlies and no real warm weather in between. Then the summer was a hot one.

My main reasons for not suspecting a repeat of 1975 or 1995 is that the teleconnections don't favour a "scorcher" this summer- but then again, nor do they particularly suggest a washout. July and August in particular are subject to a lot of uncertainty.

[Derp Patrol]

Glad to see plenty of strong contradiction to this whole summer being so rashly written off now. See my somewhat annoyed latest post on this in the Model Output Discussion thread.

Overly long term 'writing off'-ism is very annoying, and bad weather practice too. (In my humble opinion anyway!)

Still plenty to play for in terms of more sun and more warmth this time, as damianslaw very correctly posts above ....

I agree.. it's a bit annoying when every post in the model discussion has 'this summer is going to be another washout' in it..

[lukemc]

Hi,

I am intrested to here about the statistical link that a cold winter makes a cool and/or wet summer likley as I would dispute it in some respects for example we know that some cold winters were followed by quite mediocre summers like 1963, 1982 and 1985 but there were the cold winters of 1946/47, 1954/55, 1968/69 and to some extent 1995/96 which where followed either by a hot summer or quite a respectable summer with several noteable heatwaves. So I would say that a cold winter does not always mean a cold and/or wet summers and also it seems to be that cool and/or wet summers are just as likely to follow mild winters than cold ones for example the washout of 2007 followed an exceptionally mild winter, similar for 1998 and 1993 was a classic example in this respect as the cool summer that year came on the back of a very mild winter so that further disputes that thier is a link between the winters weather and the weather the following summer.

Also does anyone have an example of a year where there was a cold winter followed by a cool and/or wet summer that had either a dry May or a significant warm spell in late May. It does seem that May 1947 had a significant heatwave near the end with 30C being exceeded but I am not sure weather it was a dry May though so maybe as far as May is concerned 1947 is more of an anologue and this summer would be more likely to be a good one in that respect.

And I have also read on these forums that the teleconnections do not support a hot summer this year - does anyone know what the teleconnection signals for the following summer where showing just before the summers of 2003 and 2006?

Luke

[snowlover2009]

next week doesnt look half as bad as what i thought it might be. nice. :blink:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-app/reports?MENU=Week-ahead