Spring / Summer 2010

[Weather-history]

I would guess its just an indication that we've been through three generlly cool, zonal summers. Zonal summers don't generally see an abundence of thunderstorms. Whether that is related to solar minimum might be a more pertinant question?

Summer 2007 was pretty thundery, there were plenty of funnel cloud reports during that summer. July 2008 and 2009 were pretty thundery as well.

I think what you mean Gavin is that you generally don't get the mesocyclone type storms/Spanish plumes, (the ones that give you the most severe thunderstorms) in a zonal summer but you still get the classic sunshine and showers, the showers develop in the afternoon and you get home grown thunderstorms, which are very often weaker. This what happened during June and July 2007 with slow moving low pressures.

Edited June 22, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Thundery wintry showers]

I recently mentioned the unusually thundery June that much of northern England had in 1980, with 9 thunder days at Newcastle Airport. The thunderstorms early in the month were associated with southerly plumes, but those of the 22nd-26th June resulted from a polar maritime "sunshine and showers" scenario. The polar maritime air initially came in associated with very strong westerly winds:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1980/Rrea00119800620.gif

...but once the winds slackened off, storms broke out daily from the 22nd to 26th:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1980/Rrea00119800623.gif

As for summer 2007, in Cleadon there were 4 thunder days in June and 5 in July, both setting new records in my record going back to 1993 (the previous monthly highest had been 3 days). This was beaten in July 2009 which had 7 days. I noticed a recurring theme of Julys 2007 & 2009 was the west being a breeding ground for thunderstorms in the east, resulting in a west-east split in thunder frequency.

However we also get zonal months with an emphasis on a strong jet, frequent fronts and not many prolonged polar maritime incursions- e.g. June 2002, which was largely thunder free apart from storms from a brief southerly incursion on the 2nd.

[North-Easterly Blast]

I would guess its just an indication that we've been through three generlly cool, zonal summers. Zonal summers don't generally see an abundence of thunderstorms. Whether that is related to solar minimum might be a more pertinant question?

No, we have not been through three cool summers. Only 2007 was a touch below average by 1961-90 standards, and even then the very wet June was still above average for the CET. Summer 2008 was mostly unsettled but temperatures overall were about average, and Aug 2008 saw an amazingly high CET for how remarkably dull it was. Saying that July 2008 did manage to achieve largely cool weather for the first three weeks, and only ended near average due to a warm final ten days. Summer 2009 saw temperatures a little above average overall, and had its unsettled spells, although less so than 07 and 08, and did see a heatwave in late June / early July and a fairly warm and much drier August. July 2009 was a wet month but the CET was not that cool and still finished over 16.0*C. So all in all summer 2009 was close to a very typical British summer overall I thought.

Edited June 22, 2010 by North-Easterly Blast

[Derp Patrol]

No, we have not been through three cool summers. Only 2007 was a touch below average by 1961-90 standards, and even then the very wet June was still above average for the CET. Summer 2008 was mostly unsettled but temperatures overall were about average, and Aug 2008 saw an amazingly high CET for how remarkably dull it was. Saying that July 2008 did manage to achieve largely cool weather for the first three weeks, and only ended near average due to a warm final ten days. Summer 2009 saw temperatures a little above average overall, and had its unsettled spells, although less so than 07 and 08, and did see a heatwave in late June / early July and a fairly warm and much drier August. July 2009 was a wet month but the CET was not that cool and still finished over 16.0*C. So all in all summer 2009 was close to a very typical British summer overall I thought.

People in the north west probably won't agree with you..

Summer last year was poor overall, and especially July which was dreadful. Temperatures were pretty average here though, I recorded an average of 18.4C here in July, but it was also one of the wettest July's in memory.

August was an improvement, but from June to July there were only 2 real 'warm spells'

This summer to me seems more like a typical one, we're on our third warm spell now, and in between there have been duller and cooler preiods. Last July here didn't get above 24C (after the first 2 days) which is pretty rare..

[Supercell 89]

The last couple of summer have been pretty poor for storms down this neck of the woods. In fact the last 3 years have seen a dramatic reduction in storms.

Most of our storms come from Spanish plumes and imports from France, which we havn't seen so much of the last few years and when we have they have failed to deliver, possibly due to the channel being colder but thats anybodys guess.

Do miss the good old sticky spainsh plumes and the pulse and multicell storms that came with them.

I agree with Rob that this summer has been more like what a typical summer is like, although it has been on the dry side so far. and the last 3 summer have been pretty rubbish to say the least down this neck of the woods as well, 2008 being the worst.

Not to sure about July and whether it will follow suit to June though, I can't help but get the feeling its going to be pretty cool and more unsettled especially in the first half.

Edited June 22, 2010 by Ashley Nelis

[Weather-history]

and Aug 2008 saw an amazingly high CET for how remarkably dull it was.

Look at this from Philip Eden

Mean Max (1st-31st) 19.6ºC (-1.2 degC)

Mean Min (1st-31st) 13.2ºC (+1.6 degC)

The last week of that month had cloudy swlies and like in winter time, the minima in such flows were on the high side.

August 2008 actually had a lower CET maximum than August 2007

The dullest July for England and Wales in the Areal series is July 1944 but it had a CET that is higher than the three most recent Julys. July 1944 had a CET of 16.5

Edited June 22, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Thundery wintry showers]

July 2009 had numerous days where it was quite dull, cool and wet in the west but bright and showery towards the east coast, and central counties served as a breeding ground for thunderstorms further east. Thus the weather in Norwich was mostly showery and thundery, with temperatures and sunshine a little above average despite well above average rainfall, in stark contrast to most central and western areas.

I can debunk the suggestions that dull and wet implies cool and thunder-free- take a look at Junes 1966 and 1982. Both were dull and wet over large areas of the country, but mean temperatures were generally 1-2C above average and thunder was frequent in many parts of the country.

Having been on holidays to parts of the near Continent in the last decade (mainly France), I've always been struck how their version of "sunshine and showers" is typically more dramatic than ours- on average, the sun shines more, the showers are more intense, and a large proportion of such days have at least a scattering of thunderstorms. There are many reasons why the UK's showery days tend to be tame affairs by comparison, including higher average wind speeds and the country being relatively narrow, and this probably explains why our most dramatic showery days tend to happen under slack slow moving lows creating conditions more akin to those that frequently feature on the continent.

[reef]

This summer to me seems more like a typical one, we're on our third warm spell now, and in between there have been duller and cooler preiods. Last July here didn't get above 24C (after the first 2 days) which is pretty rare..

I have to disagree that this summer so far is 'typical', up until now (though its early days) its already warmer, drier and sunnier than average - and its only going to become warmer, drier and sunnier over the next few days. Despite popular opinion, this June is turning out to be a rather good summer month (much like last June in fact).

We're on course for a 15+C CET (mostly as a result of high max temps), 200+hrs of sunshine and <60% rainfall this month. Thats about as 'atypical' as any cool, wet and dull summer month.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I remember last June in Exeter and it had some of everything- plenty of warm/hot dry sunny weather at the beginning and during the last week, a 100mm deluge of rain on the 6th with thunder early on, and another thunderstorm on the 15th with hail.

I certainly recall it being a warmer, drier, sunnier month than average except for parts of the northeast.

[damianslaw]

Certainly turning out to be a very good start to the summer with lots of dry sunny weather - can't help but compare to the synoptical pattern to what we saw mid december last winter i.e. avery blocked outlook and exceptionally weak atlantic.

Not sure what is causing such a weak atlantic, mind it only tends to get into gear after spring hibernation around now, so perhaps not too surprising to see the stalling low, indeed it is also a carbon copy of what we saw at the tail end of last June early July last year.

Looks like more mid atlantic ridging as we head into July, big question is just how far east such ridging transfers, could do what it did early-mid June and leave us in a run of cool northerlies/north westerlies or it could ridge just far enough east to bring homegrown warmth. Either way no substantial rain on the cards for forseeable future so not good news for reservoirs and rivers around these parts.

I suspect once the atlantic does break through it will break through with gusto and avengence, when who knows.. but it will eventually.

[MP-R]

I suspect once the atlantic does break through it will break through with gusto and avengence, when who knows.. but it will eventually.

Hopefully it can hold off until September - would be ncie to get the odd front of rain over the summer months though as everything is already very parched! Last November 2009 just seems like a distant memory, almost living in a different country. This year's weather has been very continental indeed.

[TonyH]

THe past week has been lovely, warm and quite sunny here. Thankfully we have had very cool night's too. All but one of the last 7 nights have been below 7.5c. The lowest being 2.3c with a touch of ground frost last Sunday. Even last night managed 5.5c, just about the lowest in the UK!

Edited June 26, 2010 by Tonyh

[Snowyowl9]

Hopefully it can hold off until September - would be ncie to get the odd front of rain over the summer months though as everything is already very parched! Last November 2009 just seems like a distant memory, almost living in a different country. This year's weather has been very continental indeed.

The atlantic looks like having a go this coming week,with a large atlantic low.

http://wzkarten.de/pics/brack4.gif

[Optimus Prime]

Summer 2007 was pretty thundery, there were plenty of funnel cloud reports during that summer. July 2008 and 2009 were pretty thundery as well.

I think what you mean Gavin is that you generally don't get the mesocyclone type storms/Spanish plumes, (the ones that give you the most severe thunderstorms) in a zonal summer but you still get the classic sunshine and showers, the showers develop in the afternoon and you get home grown thunderstorms, which are very often weaker. This what happened during June and July 2007 with slow moving low pressures.

I do seem to remember those toerrential thundery outbreaks on the 20th July 2007. That was moving up from the south as far as I remember. The most intense rain I've ever seen and lasted much of the morning.

[lukemc]

Hi,

Do you think that this summer could follow a similar patten to 1947 considering the way it is going so far - for example the summer of 1947 followed a cold winter and it was a long hot summer (but I don't think it was as warm and dry as 1976) with all 3 summer months above average and from the archives it seemed that that summer peaked in August but thier was quite a major heatwave in June - July was hot too - a CET of 18C does anyone know if the synoptics in the summer of 1947 were similar in any respects to what we have seen so far this summer - was the hot summer in 1947 caused by a pesistant mid atlantic blocking high ridging over the UK/NW Europe (rather like this summer so far), pesistant Azores ridging or a high pressue block to the east of the UK or over mainland Europe - and was the summer of 1947 as dry as what we have experienced in this summer so far?

Also I have read GPs recent posts explaining that the current downstream signals/teleconnections etc. are not conductive to a 1995/1976/2006 style summer at present can anyone explain to me why that is the case and is it possible for some other factors to override the downstream signals/teleconnections for example 1995 summer was during a weak to moderate La Nina which normally favours cool and unsettled weather but it ended up being one of the warmest summers on record, and we all know that last winter was a weak to moderate El Nino which normally favours mild winters but we all know what happened then. And also I have noticed that this month has turned out warmer than what you might of thought from reading posts about the downstream signals from the likes of GP etc. (e.g. he predicted a Mid Atlantic Ridge) earlier in the month so do you think that this summer could still turn out to be one of the better summers of the last 10 years or so overall with quite a warm or even hot July - of course I want warm weather for my birthday on the 18th July!

Luke

[RichardR]

Got to be said that the latest models outputs look distinctly garbage for my area.

[Weather-history]

No thunder heard here during the first half of this year.

[CroatianWeather]

Hi,can someone please tell me his opinion for weather for the rest of this summer in Croatia(Center-Southeast Europe--look on Europe map)....just your opinion will it continue dry and hot(like till now) or will it change on wetter and cooler...thanks much.....:blink:

[summer blizzard]

Offical Summer Blizzard forecast 2010.

Don't have time to get into great detail so i will break it down.

Neutral ENSO conditions will persist throughout summer 2010.

Negative QBO will peak in July 2010.

Arctic Occilation will be negative during June and July 2010, positive during August 2010.

June prediction: 15.0C, 0.9C above average - Drier than average

July prediction: 16.1C, 0.4C below average - Wetter than average

August prediction: 16.7C, 0.5C above average - Drier than average

Summer 2010 prediction: 15.9C, 0.3C above average - Drier than average

On the face of it, a summer much like 2009, though the possibility of a fourth straight cool and wet July.

Quite pleased with my June forecast, the official Hadley CET was 15.3C, so only 0.3C out, it was also drier than average.

In regards to the rest of my summer forecast, the dominant anologues for the May-June period were 1984 and 2001, both these months saw July and August having above average CET values, so it is likely that my July prediction will be wrong, however if anything August could be warmer than i predicted.

In regards to the new dominant anologues, there have been interesting developments in regards to the QBO and MEI, namely..

1) QBO value peaked in May, so we have a mature weakening easterly QBO, lending itself to a slightly negative AO.

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/qbo.u30.index

2) MEI series is tanking, and La Nina conditions are quickly taking hold, this lends itself to a strongly negative AO.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/table.html

[Thundery wintry showers]

No thunder heard here during the first half of this year.

I think Weather Log has Ringway picking up at least one "day of thunder" during the first half of each year from 1993 to 2004 inclusive- so that stat is highly unusual!

[Weather-history]

Beginning to wonder whether we are going to have another relatively poor July

[lukemc]

Hi,

I don't think it will be as bad as the last 3 Julys especially 2007 and 2008 for example where I am not far down the road from you we have not had that much rain our first significant rainfall is today - I think the CET tempeature will be higher this month and this month will be the warmest since July 2006 why do you think a poor july is possible yes it is unsettled at the moment but most long range forecasts (including the MetO and our own Netweather forecast) are going for a warm HP dominated last week of July/first week of August do you see that happening and if not why? It would be nice to see a warm settled end to July as it coincides with the first week of the school holidays.

Luke

[Bottesford]

It will need to change back to be considered reasonable that's for sure. First 10 days have been good but if it carries on like these last two days then it'll only be remembered as poor!

[Weather-history]

Hi,

I don't think it will be as bad as the last 3 Julys especially 2007 and 2008 for example where I am not far down the road from you we have not had that much rain our first significant rainfall is today - I think the CET tempeature will be higher this month and this month will be the warmest since July 2006 why do you think a poor july is possible yes it is unsettled at the moment but most long range forecasts (including the MetO and our own Netweather forecast) are going for a warm HP dominated last week of July/first week of August do you see that happening and if not why? It would be nice to see a warm settled end to July as it coincides with the first week of the school holidays.

Luke

It is probable that this July could be better than the previous three but in what could be a good summer overall, it could be still relatively poor, at least compared to the June and the August.

In Scotland, thus far it has been pretty wet for this July

Infact, in Scotland it looks as though its already the wettest month since March

Edited July 13, 2010 by Mr_Data

[Thundery wintry showers]

So far it's been a NW-SE split, with frequent cloud and rain for north-western areas and warm sunshine for the south and SE (except the last couple of days). If it continues in this vein it will definitely be a poor month in some regions but not others.

It is unclear how the month is going to pan out in the long run- the longer-term outlook has low pressure but not a raging Atlantic- all of the last three Julys had a raging Atlantic by this stage of the month.

One interesting thing about all of the last three Julys was that if anything the split was SW-NE- all three Julys were dull and wet with low maxima and infrequent thunder in the south-western third of the country, whereas many eastern parts, while being similarly wet, had a much higher emphasis on thundery downpours with sunshine and temperatures close to normal. This July with its NW-SE split is thus bucking that trend so far.