Spring / Summer 2010

[Devon-Nelly]

2007 was an awful summer both July & August came in 1c below average along with being exceptionally wet during June & July.

2008 had an average and fairly dry June, July was mostly cool and wet until the last week where it turned very warm/hot and sunny and August is a perfect example of a CET that doesn't reprersent the full picture of the month. Daytime temps were roughly around 16c -19c and hitting of the month which is on the cool side however night time temperatures were around 13c - 15c hence the month ended up being around avergae because of this despite being a dull & wet.

2009 We had a warm and dry June, July was cool and wet after a warm dry start and August was abit of a mix and was more average. So last summer was more average than the previous two.

[Snowyowl9]

Ask anyone around about last summer and they`ll say it was another washout.

Last july was certainly an eye opener 2nd wettest I`ve seen,august was better than 2008 but still pretty wet, and that goes for June too and we did have at least 1 hot thundery spell last July.

July was actually a very interesting month of thundery downpours,it`ll stay in the memory.

After such a dry start it became unbeliveably wet so quickly,never seen anything like it before after such a dry like what the ground is like now!!!!

Overall last summer here was wetter than 2008 by quite a margin but mainly in the form of torrential Thundery showers,so more similar to 2007.

Edited April 24, 2010 by Snowyowl9

[North-Easterly Blast]

Yes, he's been told about this before and again he does not listen. A season is made up of three factors, temperature, sunshine and rainfall.

I hardly call June-July 2007 rainfall wise typical of the British climate, they were abnormal and when you add in that May as well, they were exceptionally abnormal.

August 2008 was abnormal, sunshine wise

Kevin Bradshaw here just proves a point that I can also see, especially over recent years, is that a warmer than average summer / summer month does not always mean a drier or sunnier month or season. This has been seen before as well (Aug 2004, very warm overall but a washout),(Aug 1997, one of the hottest on record but unremarkable rainfall and sunshine). A pattern similar to this occurred again in Aug 2008, exceptionally dull but still average to slightly above CET. On top of this May and June 2007 were similar, washouts but still above average for the CET.

2007 was an awful summer both July & August came in 1c below average along with being exceptionally wet during June & July.

2008 had an average and fairly dry June, July was mostly cool and wet until the last week where it turned very warm/hot and sunny and August is a perfect example of a CET that doesn't reprersent the full picture of the month. Daytime temps were roughly around 16c -19c and hitting of the month which is on the cool side however night time temperatures were around 13c - 15c hence the month ended up being around avergae because of this despite being a dull & wet.

2009 We had a warm and dry June, July was cool and wet after a warm dry start and August was abit of a mix and was more average. So last summer was more average than the previous two.

August 2007 was not 1*C below average and not even 1*C below on the warmer 1971-2000 scale. Despite being the coolest August of recent years, Aug 2007 I thought was quite a pleasant month, it was a much drier month than June and July of that year, and was fairly sunny and it did have some pleasantly warm and sunny days but never too hot.

August 2009 was above average, and also above on the 1971-2000 scale.

[Optimus Prime]

There are tons of examples of a warm month being wet. June 1982 was unusually wet (second to 1997) but very warm (15.5c)

June 1997 was exceptionally wet but cooler (14.1c)

[Geordiesnow]

Forgive me but I seem to recall the temperature were pretty awful really, even by average standards!

I think i agree with you there, everywhere except for the SE and East Anglia experience pretty poor temperatures last summer although of course there were some warm spells elsewhere.

[Weather-history]

Kevin Bradshaw here just proves a point that I can also see, especially over recent years, is that a warmer than average summer / summer month does not always mean a drier or sunnier month or season.

And equally a cooler than average summmer doesn't have to be a wet one neither. This has been a fact since records began.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The warm-dry-sunny relationship holds more strongly in high summer (July & August) than at other times of the year, presumably because of the prevailing weather patterns in those months, but it still isn't a hard and fast rule, especially the further north and west you go. One of Philip Eden's articles pointed to July 1977 as a dry and sunny but cool month over many parts of the country, and this was also true of some parts of the country in the Augusts of 1993 and 2007.

Interestingly in the winter half-year the reverse is true over N & W Scotland and NW England- mild months tend to be associated with a lot of Atlantic rain, and to a lesser extent extensive cloud cover.

Even the dry-sunny relationship cannot be taken for granted. Anticyclonic months with a good deal of low cloud can end up dull and dry, while months characterised by dry sunny spells interspersed with very active fronts, or a high incidence of short, sharp convective rainfall, can end up sunny and wet. I've often mentioned that in August 2008, the settled spell in the last week had even less sunshine than in the weeks of dull wet weather that preceded it.

[Snowyowl9]

A different subject but looking for the most thundery months of the year to look forward too it would be

1.July

2.June

3.May

4.august

The lower height of the sun impacting august to 4th and less intense downpours.

More thunder in May.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Not sure about August being 4th- that assessment might be influenced by the lack of thunderstorms in August during the last few years. August 2004 was comfortably the most thundery month in the last 25 years, and thunderstorms were quite frequent in many parts of the country in Augusts 1994, 1996, 1999 and 2000.

I think August is about level with May, June and July overall, but in certain areas of the country, such as Greater Manchester and Tyneside, on average it has more thunderstorms than any other month.

[Snowyowl9]

One other reason why May here anyway can be more thundery to august is because more of a blocked month with less atlantic influence and more slacker flows different to august to kill any thunder off,better further east in august yes.

I agree 2004 was the top thundery august,followed by 1999 here,otherwise pretty lacklustra,to the other months mentioned.

[William of Walworth]

The warm-dry-sunny relationship holds more strongly in high summer (July & August) than at other times of the year, presumably because of the prevailing weather patterns in those months, but it still isn't a hard and fast rule, especially the further north and west you go. One of Philip Eden's articles pointed to July 1977 as a dry and sunny but cool month over many parts of the country, and this was also true of some parts of the country in the Augusts of 1993 and 2007.

I think many of us who are summer loving but also realistic, without any heatwave expectations,

would be delighted by some periods of weather like that, in the summer to come. Sunny but with modest temperatures would be very acceptable, it's the rain and unsettledness that we want to see less of .....

[mushymanrob]

well im pretty certain now that this coming summer will follow the pattern of the last three summers... a cool washout. yet again we have a very dry spring, this drought cannot last and when dry spells come to an end it normally results in a prolonged wet regime.

so imho we will be getting another rubbish, cool, dull, wet, summer.

[Milhouse]

I think many of us who are summer loving but also realistic, without any heatwave expectations,

would be delighted by some periods of weather like that, in the summer to come. Sunny but with modest temperatures would be very acceptable, it's the rain and unsettledness that we want to see less of .....

Yes, i would be happy with something like July 1977 and would have taken it instead of last July for the fact that it was a very dry month, even though it was 0.6c below the 71-00 average. It was still the warmest month of the summer, so overall summer 1977 must have been very poor, especially so considering what happened the year before.

I believe we are long overdue a sumer month with a significantly above average CET. The past 3 summers have had their moments but any proper hot weather has been brief and has only occurred once during the entire 3 months. We could get more frequent hot weather from a similar CET to last summer, but it would mean more notable cooler interludes inbetween.

well im pretty certain now that this coming summer will follow the pattern of the last three summers... a cool washout. yet again we have a very dry spring, this drought cannot last and when dry spells come to an end it normally results in a prolonged wet regime.

so imho we will be getting another rubbish, cool, dull, wet, summer.

Well we can only hope that we get a repeat of 1959. That spring as a whole was not especially dry, but it was warm and that year saw a wonderful Summer.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I believe we are long overdue a sumer month with a significantly above average CET.

We are indeed. Kevin has often mentioned that no summer month in 2007, 2008 or 2009 has produced a higher CET than September 2006. August 2009, though, was 1 to 2C above the 1971-2000 average across much of eastern England.

Long dry spells do tend to come to an end with washouts, but these washouts can be temporary (e.g. June 1990) and/or put off until September (e.g. 1976, 1995). In 1959 dry conditions persisted well into October.

[kold weather]

Not sure about August being 4th- that assessment might be influenced by the lack of thunderstorms in August during the last few years. August 2004 was comfortably the most thundery month in the last 25 years, and thunderstorms were quite frequent in many parts of the country in Augusts 1994, 1996, 1999 and 2000.

I think August is about level with May, June and July overall, but in certain areas of the country, such as Greater Manchester and Tyneside, on average it has more thunderstorms than any other month.

I think thats a good point TWS you raise, I suspect thats because the sea surface temperatures are higher obviously in August and for coastal areas thats probably quite an important factor to bear in mind.

As for the summer pattern Mushy, what we are seeing is a shift towards a HP dominated set-up with the Azores high strengthening, I think thats going to play its part this summer as wlel and if anything may increase...the problem will be there is still quite a decent signal for -ve NAO/AO and thats not going to shift away time too soon I'd have thought. I suspect the pattern we have now will actually repeat several times this summer, with HP dominated set-up followed by -ve NAO and cooler northerlies and possibly undercutting lows, of course that can also bring in hot E/ESE airflows as well...

One wildcard to just keep in mind is if the upper high set-ups far enough NE then the cooler northerly could get replaced by a SE airflow instead around a Scandi high set-up...that happened over and over again in the first half of 2006 and also in September, which featured an impressive -ve NAO signal and whilst that was an extreme pattern, its quite possible a good 20-30 day period with a set-up like that could happen.

[AderynCoch]

August 2004 has been mentioned a couple of times - a highly underrated summer month for me. It was slated a lot in the aftermath purely for its unusually high rainfall, but that didn't tell the whole story. Summer rainfall can be divided roughly into two camps:

1) Brief yet intense downpours - these are often thundery in nature and are associated with warm but unstable airmasses. Despite the heavy rainfall, the overall weather pattern is very much a summery one.

2) Cool, cyclonic and steady rainfall delivered directly from the Atlantic - though I wouldn't call the rainfall "drizzly" (compared with winter at least, when SSTs are lower and thus convection rates are lower), it's much more spread-out and prolonged than the torrential downpour variety. When this pattern takes hold, most of us are left wondering where summer has gone.

August 2004 was the wettest since 1956, yet it was a very warm and muggy month and pretty decent with regards to sunshine. August 1956 on the other hand was oppressively cold and constantly wet - and presumably dull too.

So rainfall totals can be very misleading, although truth be told I'd prefer a repeat of an August like 1995 or 1947 over anything else.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The distinction between types of precipitation given above sound to me like the distinction between frontal and convective precipitation- the former tends to be light or moderate and persistent and associated mostly with Atlantic regimes, the latter tends to be short and sharp and associated with instability. August 2004 was primarily a "convective" month which is largely why sunshine came out close to normal for most parts despite exceptional rainfall- and also why it was exceptionally thundery. Unfortunately I spent that month in Tyneside, and North Sea areas of Scotland and NE England had quite a dull month because of frequent North Sea stratus in the first half.

Months like that generate a wide variety of views, because some of us are more enthusiastic about convective storms than others- a month like August 2004 thus goes down well with most convective enthusiasts (except those near the North Sea coast, d'oh!) but not so among those who are primarily after a settled summer. But it can go further than that- when we're talking a difference between a month with frequent light rain vs a month with occasional short sharp rain, the difference matters to a large majority of people- for example June 2003 was generally wetter than June 2002 in eastern England, but the rain consisted of occasional sharp downpours and temperatures & sunshine amounts were markedly higher, so to many people the month actually seemed drier.

Using rainfall as an indicator for individual locations is even worse which is why Kevin uses number of raindays for his Manchester summer index. August 1995 was a notably "wet" month at Rhoose in south Wales but over 90% of the rain fell on a single day!

[summer blizzard]

At the moment, i think that this sunmmer could go either way, though i am favouring cool.

My thoughts are based on the current sea surface temperature anomolies, which favour a weak Pacific Jet Stream and a +PNA pattern over the USA, which in turn forces more energy into the sub-tropical Jet Stream where the largest thermal gradiant is currently located.

However, this may not be a bad thing, becuase the Azores High looks to be dispaced northward because of this, it looks to centre itself closer to Bermuda cancelling out the +PNA pattern and turning it neutral, so that with a weak Jet Stream coming off the USA at those times, the response seems to be to throw a ridge towards western Europe.

The big player in this pattern is the AO, which thankfully for us looks to be set neutral due to a higher thermal gradiant over our side of the Arctic, which should inhibit the formation of a Greenland High, however i believe that the AO may lean more positive in late summer.

In conclusion, i think that things are finely balanced, there is a big signal for a -NAO, though its interaction with the AO and PNA pattern is what will make or break this summer, if we see a -AO, -PNA pattern, then i think that the ridge over western Europe will retrogress, and we see a northerly resulting, with a -AO, +PNA pattern, we see a 2007 repeat, however with a +AO, +PNA pattern we may see a ridge over western Europe with resulting heat, and with a +AO, -PNA pattern, the responce is a strong ridge centred close to the UK.

In regards to what i have stated above, i think that there is a 3 to 1 chance of a drier than average summer, but evens on a warmer/colder than average summer, and that the AO will lean more positively as the summer progresses.

[reef]

The main question you have to ask, is whether cold patterns follow on into spring and winter? A few facts:

Since 1691, a winter more than 1C below the 30 year average has been followed by:

- A spring or summer more than 1C above average only 7 times out of 65 (3 were summers, 4 springs).

- A spring or summer below average 52 times.

- A summer with a mean CET above 16C only 7 times.

- A summer with a mean CET above 16.6C (1C above the current 1971-2000 average) once.

So the stats would suggest an above average summer is unlikely, but then, since 1988 only four out of 20 have been below average, so can we buck the odds?

[Mesoscale]

22C today its going to be here in london so at the moment its above average spring so are luck might be changing?

as for the summer i prefere convective months as these tend to have more sunshine and more thunderstorms.

Im hopeing for a warmer summer as these tend to be the more enjoyable summers and when u look back on it, its like yeah it was a really nice warm summer that year we had some good times.

I wish i lived in florida but florida during the summer months tends to be sunny during the morning and then clouds over during the afternoon and your almost garanteed to at least see lightning in the evening

although temperatures can get extreme.

I was there in august last year and it got uncomfortably hot on a couple of the days, these where the days we had the biggest thunderstorms one of the days it got up to 38C with 80% humidity, luckily most of the day we spent at the florida mall but for the morning we spent it at a sea worlds aquatica they have a temperature thing in the wave pool and it said 35C at 11am and you couldnt escape the heat even in the water we spent about an hour and half there and i felt tender we left for the amll at about 12pm, when we came out of the mall at about 4pm thunderstorms where building everywhere and by 7pm we had a full blown thunderstorm going with alot of close strikes i was facing the wrong direction to see most the lightning as the mass of the storm was to the north and i wasnt prepared to run around the outside of the building with close strikes. I got up at about 5am that night for the toilet and still could see lightning reflecting off the ajacent building. crazy night!

All though i wish for those kinds of thunderstorms i dont wish for that kind of heat especially as most of the UK doesnt have air conditioning as we have no need its a real life saver and coming into an air conditioned room after a really hot day is AMAZING!!

For july i dont really care what its like here in london as ill be in mexico!!

August i hope its hot and thundery! just like august 2006 when i got the biggest storm i had ever seen in the UK!

btw i always wright essays, i love to write.

[Weather-history]

April 2010 has crept over the 200hrs of sunshine mark.

There was only 1 July that achieved that in the 2000s and that was 2006. Shows how disappointing, the other Julys were sunshine wise.

[mushymanrob]

The main question you have to ask, is whether cold patterns follow on into spring and winter? A few facts:

Since 1691, a winter more than 1C below the 30 year average has been followed by:

- A spring or summer more than 1C above average only 7 times out of 65 (3 were summers, 4 springs).

- A spring or summer below average 52 times.

- A summer with a mean CET above 16C only 7 times.

- A summer with a mean CET above 16.6C (1C above the current 1971-2000 average) once.

So the stats would suggest an above average summer is unlikely, but then, since 1988 only four out of 20 have been below average, so can we buck the odds?

thats pretty grim tbh... and doesnt bode well for summer 2010.

however from a business point of view, id sooner continue with wet summers then another 1975,6, 1990 or 1995.... even 2003. summers like those will/did cost me money. (no grass = no income)

[William of Walworth]

thats pretty grim tbh... and doesnt bode well for summer 2010.

Maybe, maybe not, but we've had a pretty mixed bag of predictions for this coming summer in this thread. I can see some hopeful indicators in summer blizzard's post above, for instance, and kold weather seemed reasonably confident too that we might do better this year.

Edited April 27, 2010 by William of Walworth

[Optimus Prime]

I'd say 1940 is our nearest pattern image to this year which had the following CET with 2010s figure in brackets;

November 1939 8.7c (8.7c)

December 1939 3.2c (3.1c)

January -1.4c (1.4c)

February 2.6c (2.8c)

March 6.0c (6.1c)

April 8.7c (9.X)

May 12.5c

June 16.4c

July 15.1c

August 15.6c

September 12.8c

October 9.6c

November 6.9c

December 3.8c

This is what I based 12.2c on for my May CET. I suspect it will be a very warm May and June but dissapointing rest of the summer and going into Autumn.

[North-Easterly Blast]

We are indeed. Kevin has often mentioned that no summer month in 2007, 2008 or 2009 has produced a higher CET than September 2006. August 2009, though, was 1 to 2C above the 1971-2000 average across much of eastern England.

Long dry spells do tend to come to an end with washouts, but these washouts can be temporary (e.g. June 1990) and/or put off until September (e.g. 1976, 1995). In 1959 dry conditions persisted well into October.

Between 1959 and 1975 no summer month breached the 17.0 CET mark, and only three months in that period got above 16.5 CET. From 1977 to 1981 only two months even breached 16.0*C, and even then the warmest was 16.2*C over five years. From 1985 to 1988 only one month breached 16.0*C.

Make of that what you will.

I certainly think that we are way too soon to be saying we are overdue a summer month warmer than 17.0*C. True, three years without a summer month of this level may be something we have not seen so far in the post 1988 era, but it is nothing out of the ordinary. In the past three years, four summer months have still been above 16.0*C, and last August was above 16.5*C. Unless we do not get a month warmer than 17*C before 2020, or only one or two months above 16*C between now and 2015 then it will be nothing to be remarking upon.