3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 8

[billy]

Had a couple of snow showers here this morning with some big flakes too. Nothing on the radar and the bbc said dry here today. I see the met office have changed their advisory for tuesday and wednesday to cover east anglia and the south east now.

[Mrsf16]

Gotta laugh else I'll cry!! METO Warnings for every other part of EA except for Peterborough!!!

Grey and horrible here...again!

[Ben_Cambs]

The reason why the Met have probably removed the warnings from Peterborough is because the latest FAX's show the front stalling further south. The latest countryfile forecast said some places could see 5-10cm on Tuesday night. Im not ruling out snow in Peterborough but the front is going to stall further south according to the latest charts

[Mrsf16]

We always seem so close yet so far! :blush: Thanks Snowman

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

The reason why the Met have probably removed the warnings from Peterborough is because the latest FAX's show the front stalling further south. The latest countryfile forecast said some places could see 5-10cm on Tuesday night. Im not ruling out snow in Peterborough but the front is going to stall further south according to the latest charts

Would it stall over Hertfordshire do you think Snowman?

[hire17]

Just in to the leading edge of something here now. Sleet hail grauple mix, very dark cloud

Was expecting nothing today

Actually quite a short shower in the end but now actually snowing lightly

[Ben_Cambs]

Would it stall over Hertfordshire do you think Snowman?

Latest FAX charts at T+60, T+72 and T+84

T+60: http://www.meteociel...h=60&carte=2000

T+72: http://www.meteociel...h=72&carte=2000

T+84: http://www.meteociel...h=84&carte=2000

This shows the front stalling over most of the region on Tuesday, into Tuesday night and moves slightly westwards on Wednesday before fizzling out. So according to these charts, when the PPN stalls, Hertfordshire should be under it. Most other counties in EA should be under it too.

Also these charts show the Uppers being -4C or -5C which will help too

Edited February 14, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Tom D]

Hi all,

I think this region could do very well over the next couple of days if a few things go in your favour

- Dew points

- Rainfall intensity

- Precipitation at night

I wouldn't be surprised to hear of a few accumulations in the region of 2-5cm. I wish I was at home in Herts, since I've been here in Leicester there's been less snow than at home! :blush:

[SnowAngel]

We had some wet snow this morning, trying its best to settle for a while which was unexpected. The netweather local forecast has us down for icy rain on Tuesday though

[BucksSnow]

glad buckinghamshire is back in the advisory.

I would be happy to get one dumping of snow before spring

Had a partial covering this morning very unexpected

[NorthantsSnow]

Not too upset about the advisory exclusion. To be honest I can't see much in the way of snow Tues/Weds anyway. It looks like a rain event for most away from higher ground. Remember an advisory is just that, and no guarantee of severe weather.

What a rubbish winter this has been though for notable snowfalls. A cold winter, sure, I'll grant you that, but for snow here it's been extremely disappointing.

glad buckinghamshire is back in the advisory.

I would be happy to get one dumping of snow before spring

Had a partial covering this morning very unexpected

We had a few sharp hail showers overnight but no snow.

[Mrsf16]

Same here NS, a lot of promise and potential but when it came down to it a big old pile of dissapointment!! probably best snowfall in Peterborough was December 17th, yet the showers were so localised that here we had nothing particularly notable, yet the other side of the city had some quite good accumulations! Ah well, there's always next year!!

I do hope Tues/Weds pulls off, but Im just going to wait and see what falls out of the sky!!! lol All this "will it wont it" is driving me crackers!! lol

[slater]

Same here NS, a lot of promise and potential but when it came down to it a big old pile of dissapointment!! probably best snowfall in Peterborough was December 17th, yet the showers were so localised that here we had nothing particularly notable, yet the other side of the city had some quite good accumulations! Ah well, there's always next year!!

I do hope Tues/Weds pulls off, but Im just going to wait and see what falls out of the sky!!! lol All this "will it wont it" is driving me crackers!! lol

have to totally agree with you too..yes sure we have had snow but no where near the accumulations that others have had, all iv had hear is mostly an 1" on and off and just turns to sheer ice. so not expecting much yet again this week, but am in peterbrough for a meeting on tues so hope you dont get too much lol!!!

[Snowangel-MK]

Nothing to get very excited about on the Countryfile 'weather for the week ahead' unless you live in noth east of scotland, if we get anything at all in MK I expect it will be wet mush that wont settle, I would love to be wrong though !

Happy Valentines day everyone, hope you are all having a nice day

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

You just got to laugh at this the latest BBC weather forecast now say possible snow for the far SE on Tuesday into wednesday and that after the weather warning from the Met. Office. for Hertfordshire.

[Ben_Cambs]

You just got to laugh at this the latest BBC weather forecast now say possible snow for the far SE on Tuesday into wednesday and that after the weather warning from the Met. Office. for Hertfordshire.

Well the latest Met charts have the front stall over our region, so I dont know where the Beeb are getting that idea from!

[Jason T]

Well the latest Met charts have the front stall over our region, so I dont know where the Beeb are getting that idea from!

The met o still have the advisory on for hertfordshire etc.

[Optimus Prime]

The atlantic is warm near the UK because of the Gulf Stream. If it wasn't for the Gulf Stream we'd be as cold as Eastern Canada throughout every winter.

Are you basing that on some awful Horizon programme or an educated guess?

If the gulf stream stopped it would require the Atlantic to freeze over before we got anywhere near as cold as Northern Canada. Ain't going to happen! But if it did at least it wouldn't be so bloody grey all the time.

[bluearmy]

not eastern canada unless the earth is going to start spinning in the opposite direction!!

re tues/we snow poss. i think we should wait for tomorrows 12z's, rather than react to each run as the beeb have to.

[Jason T]

Just pulled this from model output thread its the current CHAT now.

MagicBat

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Posted 3 minutes ago

Blizzard_of_Oz, on 14 February 2010 - 20:07 , said:

Just watched the latest weather forecast from the BBC and they only mentioned snow for the far corner of the SE, can some 1 explain to me what the latest model runs suggest because it seems a big downgrade. The Met. Office were issuing weather warnings for many parts of the SE and EA this morning it seems a big downgrade.

So can some 1 explain the latest model run and is this where the latest forecast has came from, this is a model related post.

Blizzards,

I agree, the bbc are now going for snow in the far south east (kent) and nothing but rain in our area. Are the models going for a downgrade? To warm for snow?

Could someone explain? Have the tables turned?

[Mr_Pessimistic]

anyone make a guess as to how far eastwards that ppn in the north sea will get tonight?

[John London]

anyone make a guess as to how far eastwards that ppn in the north sea will get tonight?

Lowestoft. I think you meant to say how far westward.

Edited February 14, 2010 by John London

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Just pulled this from model output thread its the current CHAT now.

MagicBat

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Posted 3 minutes ago

Blizzard_of_Oz, on 14 February 2010 - 20:07 , said:

Just watched the latest weather forecast from the BBC and they only mentioned snow for the far corner of the SE, can some 1 explain to me what the latest model runs suggest because it seems a big downgrade. The Met. Office were issuing weather warnings for many parts of the SE and EA this morning it seems a big downgrade.

So can some 1 explain the latest model run and is this where the latest forecast has came from, this is a model related post.

Blizzards,

I agree, the bbc are now going for snow in the far south east (kent) and nothing but rain in our area. Are the models going for a downgrade? To warm for snow?

Could someone explain? Have the tables turned?

Its the only chat no 1 is prepared to answer my question, shake heads and scratch my head while writing this.

[Jason T]

Its the only chat no 1 is prepared to answer my question, shake heads and scratch my head while writing this.

Well according to met o the advisory is still there, im no real expert at this. just to add to confusion im sure beeb get there info from meto. Maybe SNOWMAN can give a solid more update.

I think its best to wait till tomorrows runs come out.

[Hammer]

Blizzard. There is no answer. Current data suggests the risk might be a little further south, but come tomorrow it may be slightly further north in the region.

It will be about nowcasting. The possibilty still remains.