3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 8

[Ben_Cambs]

ECM 12z looks pretty tasty this evening, the whole country would have a good snow risk with this chart. LP just to the North of Scotland, 995mb near a lot of our region, a lot of troughs would form IMO:

http://www.meteociel...deles/ecmwf.php

ECM excellent this evening and I hope this eastwards trend continues, as that would bring in North Easterlies which would greatly improve the snow risk for our region, but these charts do have snow risk from them, so overall very good model output tonight and the models are trending in the right direction

Also latest radar shows shower activity hotting up in the North Sea. Colder uppers should arrive during the night and all PPN should fall as snow. I wouldnt be suprised if quite a few places see a dusting tonight and tomorrow

Edited February 9, 2010 by Snowman0697

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Snowman whats your thoughts on next week, it looks to be heading in the right direction-East, looks like the North would get a right dumping but marginal for the South although the more experienced are saying -4 -5 ups would be ok for us here, your thoughts?

[Ben_Cambs]

Snowman whats your thoughts on next week, it looks to be heading in the right direction-East, looks like the North would get a right dumping but marginal for the South although the more experienced are saying -4 -5 ups would be ok for us here, your thoughts?

I think that those charts would bring snow to us. The models are trending the right way, and ideally we would want the LP to be sat over Northern Germany and the Benelux countries. That would bring a bitter and more importantly unstable North Easterly flow, and many things can happen from there.

Regarding 850 Uppers, although 5th Feb was poor for southern parts of the region, but in Cambridgeshire, Norfolk ano other northern areas of the region, where the Uppers were -4C, recieved up to 8 inches of snow. Although -4C is borderline, it can bring snow and looking at those charts, Looks like uppers of around -6C, which is very supportive of snow. So the models are trending the right way and personally I do not see the Uppers as one of the main issues

[slater]

where all the snow gone for this week that was all forecast then..doesnt feel so cold out there either

[mackerel sky]

Is there any point talking about next week's snow risk? This time last week we were ramping up this week's snow risk. The prospect of heavy snow always remains at least 5 days ahead and doesn't materialise.

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Was that the +144? Lets just keep an eye on the models in the next couple of days and if the trend continues maybe just maybe. You know what Snowman I think this Winter will end on a big event and maybe this is the 1 but a lot can go wrong from here to then.

But its certainly going to be another interesting 3-4 days Im making no predictions from this 1 just let it happen and keep everthing crossed its about time we had some luck after all thE model wathcing its frustrating seeing it all go wrong.

[slater]

oh well, unfortunately my predictions a few days ago for a few flurries mon/tues and the heavier snow progged for wed/thurs/fri never actually materialising has came true. i think this is the third week in a row alot of the charts have been showing snow for our region in fi, and yet again, next week is looking the same, so i think the chances of anything significant this winter are fading fast, i think im jinxed here in diss.

on a different point, does anyone have any idea why just north of the wash always gets the ppn, but any further south it fades away? (accept of course kent) as i have noticed this form looking at the radar over the years. is it simply just because of the longer track over the north sea causing more convection for areas north of EA?

excatly what i was thinking we both right...maybe us two should do the bbc weather week...least we will get it right lol

Is there any point talking about next week's snow risk? This time last week we were ramping up this week's snow risk. The prospect of heavy snow always remains at least 5 days ahead and doesn't materialise.

totally agree

[Bolton67]

-4 -5 ups would be ok for us here, your thoughts?

Well we had those last Feb AND it dropped 7 inches of snow in Northants and the day after it dropped another 6 inches.

[Archie_Lewis]

Is there any point talking about next week's snow risk? This time last week we were ramping up this week's snow risk. The prospect of heavy snow always remains at least 5 days ahead and doesn't materialise.

very wise words!

Snow is always 5 days or more away! No point what so ever talking about next week snow

I remember last week members going for inches of snow this week - well look what's happening... East Kent gets it not the whole of our region and NE England as well like the charts had us believe!

12hrs away then I would start to feel confident on snow amounts

I know we should all have our fun and discuss, but talking snow detail for a week away is a mind kidder, great once in a blue moon but when it's happening to often during cold spells ... Looking for snow 5 days + away everyday is just stupid

[pinball wizard]

Is there any point talking about next week's snow risk? This time last week we were ramping up this week's snow risk. The prospect of heavy snow always remains at least 5 days ahead and doesn't materialise.

I quite agree, I think to be honest the models chop and change so much that unless tdecent charts are appearing within the 48hrs time frame then they may as well be disregarded as nothing more than what could happen rather than what is most likely to happen.

[Jason T]

Who believes in the flock of seagulls theory, My point is that today at work i watched from about 3pm onwards on and off loads of flocking seagulls flying ONE direction SOUTH.

ALARM BELLS rang when this exact same situation happend 3 to 4 days before the december eastley hit on the night of the blizzards. Maybe its nonsense who knows they say wild life are the best predictors when bad weather is on route.

[jennyjane]

seems warmer outside just now than it has been for a while.

[ITSY]

I quite agree, I think to be honest the models chop and change so much that unless tdecent charts are appearing within the 48hrs time frame then they may as well be disregarded as nothing more than what could happen rather than what is most likely to happen.

I do agree with that, but it is worth remembering that, unlike last week, the cold is now (almost) in place. Temps are sub zero by night and day not getting above 3-5C. It may not be quite cold enough for heavy snow yet, but the ingrediants are now merging together. It is also important to point out that the major northerly blasts that have been forecasted by the models so far this winter have, almost invariably, materialised somewhere in the British Isles. Parts of Aberdeen for instance received 7 inches of snow a couple of weeks back from the last Northerly. This blast also has cross model support - none of the model's offer slack versions/weaker versions of a trend or theme...they all stick with the overall pattern of a potent Northerly blast.

It may not happen; for people like me in Cambridgeshire (who have been virtually snowless since Christmas 2009), it probably won't - based off our recent snow(less) luck!

I think people would be foolish to ignore the trend that is being set though. It isn't a certainty by any means, and (like me in January), some will end up being bitterly disappointed (pun intended). I'm not saying to blind heartedly trust the models, but - for me - this upcoming Northerly looks stronger than the 'faux' Easterly that was predicted for us lastweek.

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Who believes in the flock of seagulls theory, My point is that today at work i watched from about 3pm onwards on and off loads of flocking seagulls flying ONE direction SOUTH.

ALARM BELLS rang when this exact same situation happend 3 to 4 days before the december eastley hit on the night of the blizzards. Maybe its nonsense who knows they say wild life are the best predictors when bad weather is on route.

Were they the same Seagulls because that may even be better of a Omen, every 1 is right its not worth getting our hopes up about the cold and snow until 12 hours before its forecasted so lets just let the thread die and talk about the weather for now.

[pinball wizard]

I do agree with that, but it is worth remembering that, unlike last week, the cold is now (almost) in place. Temps are sub zero by night and day not getting above 3-5C. It may not be quite cold enough for heavy snow yet, but the ingrediants are now merging together. It is also important to point out that the major northerly blasts that have been forecasted by the models so far this winter have, almost invariably, materialised somewhere in the British Isles. Parts of Aberdeen for instance received 7 inches of snow a couple of weeks back from the last Northerly. This blast also has cross model support - none of the model's offer slack versions/weaker versions of a trend or theme...they all stick with the overall pattern of a potent Northerly blast.

It may not happen; for people like me in Cambridgeshire (who have been virtually snowless since Christmas 2009), it probably won't - based off our recent snow(less) luck!

I think people would be foolish to ignore the trend that is being set though. It isn't a certainty by any means, and (like me in January), some will end up being bitterly disappointed (pun intended). I'm not saying to blind heartedly trust the models, but - for me - this upcoming Northerly looks stronger than the 'faux' Easterly that was predicted for us lastweek.

Yes I agree with you there and I should have added that the models can be useful in identifying trends. I'd love it if we got another lot of snow but i've seen episodes like this time and time again so dont like to get my hopes up (or others). I guess all we can do is sit tight and see what happens, maybe we will get a surprise fall - who knows...

[Jason T]

Were they the same Seagulls because that may even be better of a Omen, every 1 is right its not worth getting our hopes up about the cold and snow until 12 hours before its forecasted so lets just let the thread die and talk about the weather for now.

Agree with not getting our hopes up and all that you said. As for the same ones PASS. so apologises.

[Bolton67]

Intresting..

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

Agree with not getting our hopes up and all that you said. As for the same ones PASS. so apologises.

Ok Silver lol only joking.

[Jason T]

Snowman hows you, so whats the verdict so far are we any closer to the know,or is it just sit and wait....

[Tim Bland]

Intresting..

That will be the feature bbc have been mentioning for tommorow afternoon. The forecast has said snow showers pushing into central and western areas before another batch from the North sea in the afternoon. Tommorow will be similar to today though with marginal conditions so anything that falls will melt instantly except on highest ground. Theres quite a few beefy showers in the north sea so any of these that survive into our area during the early hours could leave a CM or 2 in places.

[BarnetBlizzard]

That will be the feature bbc have been mentioning for tommorow afternoon. The forecast has said snow showers pushing into central and western areas before another batch from the North sea in the afternoon. Tommorow will be similar to today though with marginal conditions so anything that falls will melt instantly except on highest ground. Theres quite a few beefy showers in the north sea so any of these that survive into our area during the early hours could leave a CM or 2 in places.

It will be less marginal tommorow as the upper temps will be quite a bit lower, although i do agree there will be little settling.

[Bolton67]

It will be less marginal tommorow as the upper temps will be quite a bit lower

Agreed!!

[Tim Bland]

This is the latest from Will Hand (Met office) He's a bit of a cold ramper but has been pretty much spot on so far this winter;

will hand on u.s.w

Becoming increasingly confident now that after Monday the snowiest spell of the winter is about to hit the UK with widespread lowland snow.

The benign cold spell will start to withdraw on Sunday as the high retrogresses allowing a much colder airmass originating from sub 492 DAM air near the pole to flood south with sub 522DAM thickness and falling pressure. Three things will aid snow development:

1. South moving air increasing absolute vorticity forcing ascent and falling pressure.

2. Decreasing stability forcing convection

3. Northerly jet streak propagating south from Iceland forcing mass ascent of air on its cold side (over UK).

I have kept quiet till now wanting to see how this was likely to pan out but now it is becoming clearer when the serious snow will arrive - from Monday onwards for about a week. Get those snow shovels ready, nobody will be immune, even lowland coastal SW areas.

Ciao, :-)

Will

[NorthantsSnow]

Some snow showers of moderate to heavy intensity are currently making their way across the North Sea and feeding into Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and Cambridgeshire. These are tracking in a southwesterly direction and should cross Northamptonshire and neighbouring counties later this evening.

It's going to be a hit and miss affair though so some parts plausibly 'escape' with no snow whatsoever, whereas places east and west could see a dusting before the night is out. Accuweather is currently reporting snow right now in Northampton town but that is a false report as far as I can tell.

[Ben_Cambs]

Model summary this evening is for what could be a very cold spell next week, with the source of air coming from a very cold source, and LP which will be figured nearer the time, a Northerly or North Easterly. Im not saying this is guaranteed or this is defiently going to give snow but its certainly needs to be watched over the next few days.

Meanwhile wintry showers will become more frequent tonight and may leave a dusting in places, but it will be hit and miss