Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[The Wolf]

Looks like game over for today

[NorthantsSnow]

It seems to have been even more marginal then was progged by the models, I did think last night though that anywhere east of B'ham was going to get just rain and it seems like its been even marginal west of the longitutde of B'ham, any heavier bursts will still help to dig the snow level down yet further.

Tomorrow probably favours the east Midlands more due to the timing of the front, there will stil lbe snow for the western Midlands but timings suggest it won't settle, whilst East Midlands has more of a chance in that respect.

I agree. At the moment the East Mids is favoured but it could still change as we saw in the 18z output last night. At the moment though the NAE, NMM and GFS all seem to be in broad agreement for where the heaviest ppn will be and the ingredients do seem to be just about there for a big snow event to occur. I'm just anxious now that it's all going to downgrade as we get closer. Hope not, haven't had a significant snow event in Northamptonshire yet this winter. (max 5cm)

[Nick L]

"Classic" 50-50 sleet now, not exactly exciting!

[Hailsowen]

Still snow here, although it's changing strength faster than mentionable.

[MKN]

Largely sleet here occasionly snow in the heavier bursts, not going to come to anything today, those further north could do well later. Tommorow looks very interesting although as has already been said those in the east may do better if it arrives after dark. Suprised the orange warning zone from the metoffice doesnt extend further east.

[NorthantsSnow]

Largely sleet here occasionly snow in the heavier bursts, not going to come to anything today, those further north could do well later. Tommorow looks very interesting although as has already been said those in the east may do better if it arrives after dark. Suprised the orange warning zone from the metoffice doesnt extend further east.

Yes the NMM would at least add N Cambridgeshire / Peterborough into the bullseye zone so perhaps we might see some eastward adjustment or extensions to the warning zone if this is correct.

[Nick L]

Wow, all of a sudden it has switched back to pure snow, I feel that this is going to be the theme of the day - changing every 2 minutes, that's marginality for you though I guess.

[A.J]

WOW!!.....The increase in precip intensity has made one helluva difference!

Its raining a lot heavier now!!

[Crimson_Sprite]

I agree. At the moment the East Mids is favoured but it could still change as we saw in the 18z output last night. At the moment though the NAE, NMM and GFS all seem to be in broad agreement for where the heaviest ppn will be and the ingredients do seem to be just about there for a big snow event to occur. I'm just anxious now that it's all going to downgrade as we get closer. Hope not, haven't had a significant snow event in Northamptonshire yet this winter. (max 5cm)

Same here in Notts city, this entire winter, we have had a max of 2" of snow, and 1.75" was our biggest fall. I darent get excited about tomorrw yet, as I am so tired of having my heart be pulverised into atomised pieces from snow let downs.. It would be really ace if we had one decent snowfall before winter leaves. Hopefully tomorrow will pan out, if not there is some potential come week-end, although I had friday and then saturday as good potential snow days, only to be severely downgraded in the last run.. Monday next week was ace for 3 days, and now poo, and then Tuesday looked bang-on yesterday and now its just flurries... we shall see!!!!

here to some hope for the east midlands to have potential snow tomorrow

[Turnedoutniceagain]

I must admit I'm finding it difficult to keep my ramping under control this afternoon. The latest NMM is a peach with precipitation rates of 5mm/an hour progged:

(chart copyright Netweather Extra- please subscribe for more)

The NMM actually suggests as much as 23mm of precipitation tomorrow.

The potential here is massive. Please don't downgrade!

Nurse - tissues !!

[SalopWatcher]

been "snowing" since i first posted (about a hour and a bit ago) but its so light... had reports from people further south (from a footy messageboard) that places like Bishops Castle are getting heavy snow....

[Hailsowen]

Oh well, it was fun while it lasted - turned completely to rain.

And now completely back to snow. This is confusing, at the least. :-P

Edited February 17, 2010 by Hailsowen

[conor123]

The heavy stuff going East of us by 5 miles now leaving us in the drizzle gap.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wm/wm_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

METO seem excited !!

[MKN]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/wm/wm_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

METO seem excited !!

Makes a nice change for them to say 5-10cms expected quite widely especially over hills rather than 5-10cms over hills with 2-5cms elsewhere

[valiant]

Light snow here and the frost has gone off the trees.........

[MKN]

Light snow here now. Earlier it wouldnt only snow when it was heavy

[Hansona]

Turning readily back to sleet here in Birmingham, Large flakes of snow mixed in too.

[Higher Ground]

a total write off here, sleety at the moment, never going to accumulate at this rate, having had rain for a good 30 mins beforehand. whats it like up the lickeys higher ground?

Been busy for a few hours, trying not to get too distracted by snow outside!

We've got 2cm or so on grass, less on pavements etc where it's rather slushy.

[TinManDerby]

Light snow here in South Normanton Derbyshire, (M1 J28)

Temp 0.6 dropping

DP -0.3 dropping

Overcast with some fog

Edited February 17, 2010 by TinManDerby

[Hailsowen]

Very heavy snow now, rather large flakes. I can see ice building up on zé old car, that' usually a good sign.

[A.J]

hmm...I know its an age old cliche spouted on these boards, but I'm really puzzled why the lack of snowfall IMBY....I've some elevation 100m asl, dew point is around 0C, WBT seems ok, and plenty of reports of snowfall within a 20 mile radius, and moderate precip overhead on radar, yet its rain, with just the occasional hint of wintryness....something to do with local topography perhaps?......odd.....

[drgl]

Been snowing lightly here for over an hour but now heavy & settling, still the horrible wet stuff mind.

[kar999]

I've just been out for supplies. It's not nice out there. It's alternating between rain and very wet sleet in some of the heavier bursts. Ground is sodden and temperatures and dew points still too high @ +2ºC.

[MKN]

Right first of the NAE predictions.

The NMM.

Followed by the gfs.

Lots of precip over the 24hour period as you can see in the first pic, 850s are only between -3 and -4, Tending to be coldest the further north west you are.

The dps and temp both look to be similar at around 1c in the areas under the heavy precip but it is all very marginal still. The most likely areas possible to see sleet would be those further south and east due to the upper air temps dps and ground temp, The problem to far north west is you may not be in the heaviest precip. For those that end up bang in the middle could have fun but wouldnt enjoy being the metoffice right now especially after how much the band of precip changed track yesterday into today.

Just to add to that i think those further east that do see settling snow might be better off for it remaining on the ground as we would be heading into night by then and the temps should start to fall away, the risk to those further west is that there may be a period of light rain/drizzle as the heavy stuff moves east thawing some of what has accumulated in the day.

Edited February 17, 2010 by SnowTornado