Midlands Cold Spell Discussion

[Gord]

Quite heavy rain/sleet now. You can really see how there was potential for an amazing event today.

At the same time, you can also see why such amazing events are so rare! Conditions really do need to come together exactly.

Well done to all who had predicting wet snow and puddles all along. We are lucky on our midlands board to have people who can keep their feet on the ground and make realistic predictions. Although I'm sure you wouldn't have minded too much if you had predicted it wrong!

[A.J]

Right first of the NAE predictions.

The NMM.

Followed by the gfs.

Lots of precip over the 24hour period as you can see in the first pic, 850s are only between -3 and -4, Tending to be coldest the further north west you are.

The dps and temp both look to be similar at around 1c in the areas under the heavy precip but it is all very marginal still. The most likely areas possible to see sleet would be those further south and east due to the upper air temps dps and ground temp, The problem to far north west is you may not be in the heaviest precip. For those that end up bang in the middle could have fun but wouldnt enjoy being the metoffice right now especially after how much the band of precip changed track yesterday into today.

Thanks for the post.......

For the west & NW midlands, the projection is yet another 'close but no cigar' scenario....still. not set in stone.....On a side note, I've been looking back on this winter so far, and I think its fair to say that although some parts of the UK have had a sustained cold, snowy winter, the West Midlands, especially the NW Midlands has been cold with below average snowfall...I've lived here through 4 winters so far, and this winter to date has had without doubt, the lowest snowfall accumulated during the period, it just goes to show the idiosyncrasies of the British climate

[valiant]

Big flakes now .. an exact re-run of this time yesterday.

[Nick L]

Proper snow here now, good size flakes coming down moderately. Starting to settle in slushy deposits on cars.

[Higher Ground]

Quite heavy rain/sleet now. You can really see how there was potential for an amazing event today.

At the same time, you can also see why such amazing events are so rare! Conditions really do need to come together exactly.

Well done to all who had predicting wet snow and puddles all along. We are lucky on our midlands board to have people who can keep their feet on the ground and make realistic predictions. Although I'm sure you wouldn't have minded too much if you had predicted it wrong!

It's all fallen as snow here, but still only enough to give about 2.5cm/1 inch on the grass, which is a long way from an amazing event. Still we're very lucky to have even that of course.

I'm hoping it will stick around to form an icy base for a bigger snow event tomorrow, leading to ideal conditions for sledging for the people of SW Brum! Can only hope......

Still snowing moderately, but looking at radar I guess most of the precip band is nearly through now. (?)

[kar999]

I've lived here through 4 winters so far, and this winter to date has had without doubt, the lowest snowfall accumulated during the period, it just goes to show the idiosyncrasies of the British climate

Being smack bang in the middle of the Country doesnt help! We might get Cheshire gap streamers from North or NW'erlys.

The biggest snowfalls, if my memory serves me correct, are usually classic SW fronts banging into colder air and stalling over us.

I rememeber as a lad seeing over six inches of snow fall in the afternoon and evening. Unfortunately it was all but gone by next morning as the warmer air won through and it had turned to pouring rain.

Edited February 17, 2010 by kar999

[Nick L]

Showing the first signs of settling on the grass now, still coming down heavily

[Costa Del Fal]

Rubbish sleet here. Another let down.

[valiant]

I've lived here through 4 winters so far, and this winter to date has had without doubt, the lowest snowfall accumulated during the period, it just goes to show the idiosyncrasies of the British climate

Plenty of time yet.

On the night before Bruno fought Tyson, 25th Feb 1989, we were snowed in and couldn't get to hospital for the birth of my youngest. On June 2nd 1973 (ish) it snowed in Stoke and Derby. The famous "Snow Stopped Play" cricketing occasion.

Still light snow atm.

[frozencanals]

Afternoon Folks

it is raining here in Nottingham so I guess the Nottingham snow shield is in full working order at the moment :-)

Cheers

FC

[Higher Ground]

Moderately heavy again, temperature nudged down a bit.

[Costa Del Fal]

Now Snowing moderately. Tomorrow looks better. Nice Meto warning too.

[ANYWEATHER]

It's all fallen as snow here, but still only enough to give about 2.5cm/1 inch on the grass, which is a long way from an amazing event. Still we're very lucky to have even that of course.

I'm hoping it will stick around to form an icy base for a bigger snow event tomorrow, leading to ideal conditions for sledging for the people of SW Brum! Can only hope......

Still snowing moderately, but looking at radar I guess most of the precip band is nearly through now. (?)

Glad youve got a covering! Nothing here except some sleety rain ,just shows elevation is what matters in these very marginal setups. Looks as though youve got a bit more to come in the next hour or so!

Edited February 17, 2010 by ANYWEATHER

[The Wolf]

Heavy snow with me, just outside Wolverhampton. Showing signs of trying to settle.

[Nick L]

After about half an hour of heavyish snow with good sized flakes, it has now gone back to crappy small flakes, which do nothing but melt on impact.

Lawn has gone a bit white now though.

[Higher Ground]

Glad youve got a covering! Nothing here except some sleety rain ,just shows elevation is what matters in these very marginal setups. Looks as though youve got a bit more to come in the next hour or so!

Thanks. Well currently it's as heavy as it's been, though with the sun showing through the clouds......

[Costa Del Fal]

Meto have us slap bang in the middle of those warnings but other models want us to miss out. February has been a disappointing month overall. Hope tomorrow is our luck.

[kold weather]

Tomorrow still looks marginal for you guys further west, the NAE has got lower dew points but they were too low with todays dew points. The GFS 06z run has dew points a little higher and therefore everything is going to be every bit as marginal as today it seems.

Anyway very marginal today, some location have snow whilst others are struggling with just rain and sleet, further NE I suspect temps should become less marginal due to the overnight hours.

Same should occur tomorrow for the East Midlands.

[Crimson_Sprite]

Afternoon Folks

it is raining here in Nottingham so I guess the Nottingham snow shield is in full working order at the moment :-)

Cheers

FC

Just got back from the post office and what a typical Notts Day out. My ACME rockets failed me AGAIN an the sheild lives on, and surprise-surprise its RAINING in Notts!!!! I dont need weather maps and computer models, anyone who lives in Notts knows it will rain in the winter and distant rumbles of thunder in the summer with far away anvils throwing lightning everywhere outside city limits hahahaha!! OK- Im exagerating before I get a tyraid of posts quoting my signature. but still- although we have had snow showers on many days, no real accumalting snow, so will make my YEAR if we get a good 4inch or more in the next week.

My prediction for today and tonight for Notts City

RAIN

low 1.6C

high 4.3C

[Arctic Hare]

Interesting to observe here (if not quite as interesting as I would have liked!) - I came up from Kidderminster to here on the bus about half an hour ago, and it was like this:

* Kidderminster town centre (about 40-50m asl): rain for the most part but turning sleety when it got heavier

* Bewdley town centre (25m): just about managing to settle in an extremely wet way on a few bits of grass

* Top of Bewdley by-pass (120m): quite heavy snow, settling easily and sticking to the front of vehicles

* Home (90m): a nearly full white, if thin and a bit slushy, covering on the grass and car roofs, some slush on pavements and mostly just wet on the roads

I also noticed that vehicles coming down the A456 from the west - Clows Top, Clee Hill etc - mostly had substantial snow on them. None seemed to have been cleared, which implied that the snow fell after their journeys had started.

Currently sleet and 1.1°C here.

[Higher Ground]

Stopped here. Final total just over 3cm on grass. Very marginal.

(Edit: still a few flakes, and not ruling out possibility of further outbreaks later judging by radar.)

Edited February 17, 2010 by Higher Ground

[drgl]

Heviest snow all winter here now!!!

[Costa Del Fal]

Interesting to observe here (if not quite as interesting as I would have liked!) - I came up from Kidderminster to here on the bus about half an hour ago, and it was like this:

* Kidderminster town centre (about 40-50m asl): rain for the most part but turning sleety when it got heavier

* Bewdley town centre (25m): just about managing to settle in an extremely wet way on a few bits of grass

* Top of Bewdley by-pass (120m): quite heavy snow, settling easily and sticking to the front of vehicles

* Home (90m): a nearly full white, if thin and a bit slushy, covering on the grass and car roofs, some slush on pavements and mostly just wet on the roads

I also noticed that vehicles coming down the A456 from the west - Clows Top, Clee Hill etc - mostly had substantial snow on them. None seemed to have been cleared, which implied that the snow fell after their journeys had started.

Currently sleet and 1.1°C here.

...and here near Merry Hill at about 120m ASL, Sleet with the odd burst of snow.

Dont like the way most models think we will miss tomorrows snow yet the Met Office seems confident enough we would get it fine.

[Nick L]

Stopped here now, and due to a gap in the precipitation it looks like that's my lot. The result: A rapidly melting slushy dusting on the grass.

[locneverstop]

Been holding off posting just in case magic happened

Rain with a bit of sleet most of the day in B'ham Centre. Judging by Blizzards posts it's not looking much better back home either!

I am inclined to follow Met Office's warnings, they have access to an insane amount of technology to help with short range forecasts, and to post an orange suggests a lot of confidence. If you compare it to today's event where they only had advisories out, it seems quite close to the mark.

Edited February 17, 2010 by locneverstop