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South West England Cold Spell Discussion

grab my graupel

By grab my graupel
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Dartmoor_Matt Apprentice

Dartmoor_Matt

Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
Posted

That 10 over me then is going to be... 10mm of rain or 10cm of snow?

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fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted

i have just looked at the NAE and it shows the dew points to be @3c @12 noon and nothing but rain.cc_confused.gif

fromey

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

At T30 NAE extends the snow risk down through Dorset and Hampshire, much further south than previously.

If your outside of the METO advisories you will be lucky to see snow IMHO. However spot totals for the midlands and Bristol etc look very high with most of it being snow.

T36 is likely to have the most snow area in the SW I think.

Needless to say the situation still seems to be very fluid.

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Schmac Rookie

Schmac

Posted
  • Location: Emersons Green, Bristol
  • Location: Emersons Green, Bristol
Posted

i have just looked at the NAE and it shows the dew points to be @3c @12 noon and nothing but rain.cc_confused.gif

fromey

Well, I've just read Ians latest update on his blog...

It's not sounding too good for us in Somerset / Wiltshire...

Looks like it's going to be a tad further North!...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/weather/ianfergusson/

ians updated his blog .. http://www.bbc.co.uk...r/ianfergusson/

Looks like we both had the same idea at the same time!!! rolleyes.gif

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BristolBlizzard Rookie

BristolBlizzard

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

Well, I've just read Ians latest update on his blog...

It's not sounding too good for us in Somerset / Wiltshire...

Looks like it's going to be a tad further North!...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/weather/ianfergusson/

Looks like we both had the same idea at the same time!!! rolleyes.gif

great minds think alike :wallbash: lol.

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

I wouldn't like to have to bet what would happen tomorrow, even now.

However the 48hr chart from NAE is rather nice as well.

UKMET GM has things further south than the NAE and is probably more in line with the GFS 12Z.

I am not sure that things will be sorted until tomorrow morning, but still time for things to shift 30-50 miles from the NAE current position.

post-6326-12664235592817_thumb.png

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

Ian's idea of it being further north is a concern although at least he is fairly confident the mendips could see some still. whistling.gif

I would love heavy snow for bristol area though as at least id have a chance of seeing it also. I am working from 7am tomoro until 6.30pm so if it was just wet snow on hills id still miss out! lazy.gif

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Ian Fergusson Newbie

Ian Fergusson

Posted
  • Location: Bradley Stoke, South Glos. & Panshanger, Herts
  • Location: Bradley Stoke, South Glos. & Panshanger, Herts
Posted (edited)

Ian's idea of it being further north is a concern although at least he is fairly confident the mendips could see some still. whistling.gif

I would love heavy snow for bristol area though as at least id have a chance of seeing it also. I am working from 7am tomoro until 6.30pm so if it was just wet snow on hills id still miss out! lazy.gif

A quick interjection to stress that disruptive snow to low levels in Bristol and other areas subject to the warnings is still clearly a potential outcome - I'm not saying it's not, merely that it's not clear-cut (only 60% confidence). If anything, the snow threat increases later in the day into some of these slightly more southerly areas (Bristol, N Som, B&NES) and possibly for the evening rush-hour. We shall see. Next NAE (and high-res) run is critical.

Edited by Ian Fergusson
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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

A quick interjection to stress that disruptive snow to low levels in Bristol and other areas subject to the warnings is still clearly a potential outcome - I'm not saying it's not, merely that it's not clear-cut (only 60% confidence). If anything, the snow threat increases later in the day into some of these slightly more southerly areas (Bristol, N Som, B&NES) and possibly for the evening rush-hour. We shall see. Next NAE (and high-res) run is critical.

Its all so intresting this weather thanks for the update :drinks:

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Yep that band coming in for Friday is interesting, I'm also willing to bet the NAE is too slow with kicking the front away, the GFS has the whole lot gone by midnight, whilst the 12z NAE has it still not even close to clearing by 12pm. What this means is if the NAE is right that band could arrive at an even more favourable time.

Certainly higher ground could do very well though the main risk does seem to be further N/NE.

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

A quick interjection to stress that disruptive snow to low levels in Bristol and other areas subject to the warnings is still clearly a potential outcome - I'm not saying it's not, merely that it's not clear-cut (only 60% confidence). If anything, the snow threat increases later in the day into some of these slightly more southerly areas (Bristol, N Som, B&NES) and possibly for the evening rush-hour. We shall see. Next NAE (and high-res) run is critical.

Thanks Ian for that I shall await your next update with baited breath. I work in whitchurch which is a little higher i supose on the southern side of bristol but still i shall have to wait and see. dry.gif

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Dartmoor_Matt Apprentice

Dartmoor_Matt

Posted
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Cold in winter, snow, frost but warm summers please
  • Location: Kingsteignton, Devon
Posted

Looks like spring is put back again. Typical. But then if it can't be warm and sunny it might as well be cold and snowy. Rain is a no no whichever way!

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

Looks like spring is put back again. Typical. But then if it can't be warm and sunny it might as well be cold and snowy. Rain is a no no whichever way!

I thought the snow was all over Matt to be honest untill my friend just knocked on the door and told me of the possabillitie's this week :lol:

Edited by dogs32
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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Yeah i have a feeling we will all miss out on here.

It looks like the heavy stuff is north of Glos.

Im not expecting much now.

Unless these charts show it further south on the next run i fear we all will miss out.

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Wilxy Seasoned

Wilxy

Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
Posted

I think places that saw snow today would likely to see snow tomorrow and places that saw rain would most likely see rain tomorrow just seems similer to today.

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

I think places that saw snow today would likely to see snow tomorrow and places that saw rain would most likely see rain tomorrow just seems similer to today.

Humm, im not so sure.

Now the LP is SW of us and will be south of us eventually. This is gonna start to bring colder air in from the east.

So it WILL be colder over the next few days.

How cold however?

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted (edited)

Lets just wait for the latest NAE charts before we all start quiting. It looks quite possible at moment and there should be more ppn around compared to today so evaporative cooling should be stronger.unsure.gif It should be slightly colder i think than today which would be good news because there was alot of sleet around and wet snow on higher spots.

After missing most of the jan snow i am really banking on this one to just favour our region for a change.

Edited by mullender83
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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Lets just wait for the latest NAE charts before we all start quiting. It looks quite possible at moment and there should be more ppn around compared to today so evaporative cooling should be stronger.unsure.gif It should be slightly colder i think than today which would be good news because there was alot of sleet around and wet snow on higher spots.

After missing most of the jan snow i am really banking on this one to just favour our region for a change.

Oh yeah, I forgot.

Maybe you should go skiing again? It only seems to snow when your not about :clap: :winky:

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