3 Counties & Ea Cold Spell Discussion Part 10

[saint]

I think its more of the South East that miss out, Out of the 5 possible snow events next week () on GFS 18z We are involved in 2 or 3 of them, so its not a lose-lose situation for our region anyway. The South East would get battered by rain and probably floods on those charts. Im looking forward to next week and I still think we will see snow!

For you up there!

But then, how many times have we all said not to trust the BBC! And METO!

[BucksSnow]

I hope we see snow

do you think bucks will be lucky this time snowman

[kold weather]

Yeah you guys would probably be decently involved in at least a few of the snow events, of course the 18z is probably the extreme end of what is possible but the jet is active and its not impossible that at least 3 out of the 5 events occur. Still FI is very much at 36hrs so we cannot take anything for granted at all, it could all shift way north or even way south still, indeed if anything the trend has to take it further and further into the channel so all is not nailed just yet!

Still, for northern parts of this region, we could be looking at several very good falls, maybe not quite as mad as the Midlands but it looks interesting, Wednesday morning would be manic!

[Ben_Cambs]

I hope we see snow

do you think bucks will be lucky this time snowman

NAE suggests snowfall for most of the region on Sunday, maybe a covering but that would be it. Next week looks interesting aswell for our region, IF GFS 18z pulled off there would be plenty of snow falling in our region...

[BucksSnow]

NAE suggests snowfall for most of the region on Sunday, maybe a covering but that would be it. Next week looks interesting aswell for our region, IF GFS 18z pulled off there would be plenty of snow falling in our region...

i hope so

i just want one big last fall

[80sWeather]

The GFS 18z has great potential for us,all we need is a slight trend south or east from one of those lows then its game on,as yesterdays event showed the rain turned to very heavy snow here at 16:00,but by then the front had pretty much moved too far north.

[Tim Bland]

We should all realise that we love snow in this country because its so rare. I have family in Norway and they hate the snow because of the time it takes to clear the driveways etc and put snow chains on when it get realy deep. I think we have been spoilt this year. I expect the majority of people on this thread either drive or can aford a train ticket so why not take a trip up the M1 50 miles midweek? If you love snow that much and can afford it then stay in a b&b on the south pennines for a night and soak it all up!

[SnowAngel]

i hope so

i just want one big last fall

Same here, one last white out before Spring would be the perfect end to an amazing winter

[Bolton67]

Who left all this snow in my back garden!!

the drive up the M1 was a shock.

No snow in Luton , No snow in Milton keynes and about 5 miles south of Northampton everything became White

[Tim Bland]

Not looking too good for our region this morning. We are on the SW side of all of the lows this comming week. Maybe a slight covering first thing tommorow then Lots of rain to come I think

[Bolton67]

According to the taxi driver who picked us up from Luton airport this morning it seems the north of our region did very well thursday ??

He said that Northants had very heavy snow while in Milton keynes they had heavy rain??

Meto have left Northants out of the Advisories AGAIN..they must hate us

[PurpleButterfly]

According to the taxi driver who picked us up from Luton airport this morning it seems the north of our region did very well thursday ??

He said that Northants had very heavy snow while in Milton keynes they had heavy rain??

Meto have left Northants out of the Advisories AGAIN..they must hate us

Yer Thursday was very strange, we live in luton and had rain all day. Went for a drive to Flitwick and it was very heavy rain! Then my fella got a call from his work in Northampton and they had heavy snow!!!!

It did start snowing in luton at around 11pm and all throught the night but it just left a dusting. Think if it hadnt of rained so much we would of had a good covering!

[Snowangel-MK]

According to the taxi driver who picked us up from Luton airport this morning it seems the north of our region did very well thursday ??

He said that Northants had very heavy snow while in Milton keynes they had heavy rain??

Meto have left Northants out of the Advisories AGAIN..they must hate us

Hope you had a nice holiday and enjoyed some warm sunshine !

There was snow in MK on Thursday, not as much as where I was in Birmingham though

[PurpleButterfly]

Just had a look on the BBC weather map for Bedfordshire and it looks like we could get some snow at around 3am! Fingers crossed

Current temp/dew point 2c/0c. Sunny with a little cloud.

[Bolton67]

Yer Thursday was very strange, we live in luton and had rain all day. Went for a drive to Flitwick and it was very heavy rain! Then my fella got a call from his work in Northampton and they had heavy snow!!!!

It did start snowing in luton at around 11pm and all throught the night but it just left a dusting. Think if it hadnt of rained so much we would of had a good covering!

Thank you for that!!

Hope you had a nice holiday and enjoyed some warm sunshine !

There was snow in MK on Thursday, not as much as where I was in Birmingham though

temps of 25c to 27c , couple of rain showers!!

This time yesterday i was on the beach soaking up the sun. this morning i'm looking at snow

Edited February 20, 2010 by Lancs_Northants

[kold weather]

Yep the risks for this region have gone down though its still too early to make any sort of decent call past Monday morning at the moment, and upto then you guys look like having a fair shout of snowfall...after that and whilst the ensembles are coming into better agreement, your region is close enough to the risk zone that any southwards shift would bring you into play in a big way...

Tomorrow morning does look very interesting, probably 2-4cms in northern parts of this region, timing is going to be very important, the NMM is perfect in that respect because it arrives just at the coldest point of the morning, thus you'd probably quite easily get settling snowfall I'd have thought, however if it ends up being delayed for say 2-3hrs things will beocme much more marginal.

Plenty to watch out for, don't pay too much attention to the FI, watch out for the things coming at you right now!

[Ben_Cambs]

My views haven't changed, as Kold says, its too early to make a judgement on next week, GFS in particular keeps changing about, the 18z last night and Thursday evening showed 3 snow events for us! Personally as I see it, theres no hope for people south of the M4 corridor, we still have hope and a chance for snow! Minor changes are making the biggest differences on the models and GFS 12z will be different to the 06z, whether its in favour of us and Midlands/Wales I dont know. So I wouldnt give up yet, as I see no trend from GFS at all. FI is T+48 at the moment because the models are only just starting to agree about Monday!

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

This is a post from Ian Ferguson on the model thread, make what you want of it:

Yes, that reflects the current UKMO view and even those counties just north of the M4 (e.g., Glos, Oxon, parts of Berks, Bucks etc.) will probably be very marginal.... that's IF the current evolution proves trustworthy.

Latest modified NAE output for Monday carries a rain signal across all of southern England but with the change to wintry PPN starting by ca. 06z in a line essentially from East Wales / Hereford across to Lincs and the Wash.

The real midweek snow threat based on UKMO GM (and accepting - as the MO Ops Centre does - a continuing degree of disparity between models for the Wednesday event, albeit UKMO-GM and GFS are largely similar) manifests itself central Midlands northwards; e.g., GM suggestive of up to 25-29cm snowfall (!) into northern districts / northern Ireland whilst in southern England (SW quadrant especially) it's the hefty rainfall totals, plus some quite tight gradients, that catch the eye. So, lively weather for sure, even sans snow (and indeed many might say: have we not seen enough already!?).

The UKMO 6-15d briefings now consistently offer the prospect of milder conditions developing across the south and the SIG snow risk being progressively excluded up into northern Scotland by the end of the period. I just photographed the first butterfly I've seen in 2010..... a biomarker of seasonal change afoot? We shall see.

[bluearmy]

snowman, if you're holding onto the 18z GFS run for hope then you're likely to be sadly dissappointed.

i think the southern half of our region has to accept that it no longer sits in an area likely to see anything more than transient settling snow this week. that takes us to the end of feb and march snow events, whilst possible, aren't common and generally fail to last too long before slush takes over.

even those areas north of milton keynes, which yesterday looked to be in a good spot, now look vulnerable and with the trend ever further north, i would place a bet that this particular part of the regional thread will be pretty quiet come tuesday morning.

the ecm ens for london are only offering 2 mean frosts from tomorrow onwards over the next fortnight.

i was very hopeful a couple of days ago. that hope has drained slowly away until i now have to accept that even the promising med term GEM run from this morning is too unlikely to bother with.

of course we will see parts of the country almost buried in the white stuff this week - its just that it wont be us. lets be happy for our northern posters and not bitter. spring warmth looks like being a bit late this year but i wouldnt bet against a bright and dry march.

[PurpleButterfly]

Well ive just taken a look on the met office and they have removed the weather warning from our part of the region for Monday!

Its just forcasting rain now for Luton anyway.

Even the BBC forcast has changed for Bedfordshire now, its now looking like the snow might not reach us till around 6am!!! But then again its looking like its going to be more rain than snow here in Luton

Current temp/dew is 4c/1c.

[bluearmy]

Well ive just taken a look on the met office and they have removed the weather warning from our part of the region for Monday!

Its just forcasting rain now for Luton anyway.

Even the BBC forcast has changed for Bedfordshire now, its now looking like the snow might not reach us till around 6am!!! But then again its looking like its going to be more rain than snow here in Luton

Current temp/dew is 4c/1c.

more chance of tomorrows trough behaving unexpectedly and giving luton a temp covering than mondays system reverting south with the snow risk. i'm afraid that it looks to be the case that we're too far south over the next week Boo. Boo Hoo !!! :lol:

[SnowAngel]

Just seen the met office downgrade :lol: :lol:

[angel23]

bloody met off ............. one min we r gettin it then we aint i cant keep up with this! They change so often on so quick! I think this will dissapoint loads of ppl on here well u never knw at the min everything is subject to change!

[saint]

I'm amazed by some of you, what did you honestly expect?

But then saying that, It'll probably snow now. :)

[Jason T]

See the METO warning is back ON FOR EA AND COUNTIES...