What Are People’S Expectations For 2010/11 Winter?

[stewfox]

I know we haven't seen the end of this winter yet but

1) the chances of long lying snow diminish as we go into March .

2) the model thread /cold weather discussion threads get less busy accordingly as the masses retreat.

Will people's expectations for 2010/11 winter be greatly enhanced because of this winter ?.

I know im going to start looking for snow in London in late September and moan if we have had wide spread snow by late October .

Are we going back to Barletts and South Westerly's .

or is the new era the old era are the 2010s the new 1980s , 1970s or 1740s.1680s

[Azores Hi]

Winter, 2010/11 is over.

Do I win a prize for the earliest winter is over post?

Seriously though, it's surely too early for this, we got a whole spring of beefy showers, a summer of storms and an autumn of wild gales to get through yet!

[Bottesford]

Crikey these get earlier and earlier!

Thinking about next winter is a bit like thinking "oh I wonder how miserable Monday morning will be" as you head to the pub on a Friday night with a whole joy filled weekend ahead! Maybe that's just me

[Rollo]

Surely the question after such a long winter is "what are peoples expectations for the summer of 2010". At this stage next winter as far as I am concerned can take care of itself-come September I may well feel differently.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Although this Winter has, so far, turned out be cold, frosty, and in some aspects, quite snowy, especially for Eastern/South-Eastern and Northern areas, I think next Winter could be a warmer one I think.

Perhaps not much warmer than this Winter, and the frequent stoppage of the usual mild South-Westerly winds, which happened this Winter, may continue for the next few Winters. Afterall, the Winter before this was on the cold side (although not quite as cold as this one). And this could mean that we are going through a period of some very chilly Winters ahead, with chilly Northerly and Easterly winds, and the blocking of mild Atlantic weather.

However, one reason why I still think next Winter would be warmer is that this and last Winter could be one offs, and if I had to look at the history of our Winter seasons, there would probably be some years where it was cold one Winter and that was then followed by a milder one. And then a chillyier Winter happened after that...

Also, should the rest of this Winter suddenly become much warmer (even though it looks set to be cold and drier for the next two weeks), then this could be a set up for what the weather could be like, generally, for the rest of the year. This would also include the beginning of Winter 2010/11. Then again, this may depend on the developement of lengthy warm/hot spells and the frequency. Should it suddenly become really hot and dry in the Summer, this could show the lack of South-Westerly/Westerly winds, which would bring the cooler weather in the Summer, and that the Easterly or South Easterly winds are dominating the country. These winds may continue to be a popular trend, with the continued barrier to the West stopping the Atlantic winds breaking through, although I do get a feeling that once we get towards Autumn, this pattern may be destroyed - and areas of low pressure may try and push away the high pressure from the South.

I reckon this would then help the South Westerly winds to return; and bring in some mild Autumn weather. Alot of power may be generated from the Atlantic, particularly if the winds are strong and were constant - the cooler winds may struggle to win against the Atlantic, at times. These South West/West winds may contain a lot of moisture, too, and building up intense precipitation to our areas. It is this eventual cause, I think, will help make next Winter warmer, and probably wetter. With the Atlantic blocking to consider, I do think this will still make some come backs, and high pressure should still set in from time to time, therefore not making Winter 2010/11 overly mild.

Note: This is probably unlikely happen (since this is mostly based on my opinion), and I am still learning how the Atlantic blocking works and how the placement of the high and low pressure determines what the weather will do (as well as convection). But I hope this still gives one or two ideas about what Winter 2010/11 could be like.

[Optimus Prime]

I think the whole point of this was to see whether this cold winter has effected peoples judgements for the next...quite simple really!

Of course I expect next winter to be cold. But I have a nagging feeling normal service will be resumed. Mild

[Cookie]

I want it to be mild wet and windy all winter next time around, that would suit me fine.

[stewfox]

I think the whole point of this was to see whether this cold winter has effected peoples judgements for the next...quite simple really!

Of course I expect next winter to be cold. But I have a nagging feeling normal service will be resumed. Mild

Yes !

I wasnt looking at detailed forcasts just yet (leave that till September)

Expectations will be very high I guess, if you any snow put it in the fridge for next year just in case

[BlueHedgehog074]

Yes !

I wasnt looking at detailed forcasts just yet (leave that till September)

Expectations will be very high I guess, if you any snow put it in the fridge for next year just in case

(lol) Sorry about that.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I expect next winter to be generally mild and with only occasional marginal snow events like most recent winters have been, on the basis that this winter is probably just a blip. However I am certainly open to the possibility that we might be heading into an era of dominance of cold winter synoptics over NW Europe, in much the way that the period 1988-2008 saw predominantly mild winter synoptics, in which case we could have some more cold snowy winters to come but probably none as much so as this one.

[TEITS]

More of the same is my answer.

I firmly believe we are finished with the run of mild winters and over the next few years we're going to see a run of cold winters similiar to how the 1960s was a generally cold decade. I don't have very high hopes for this coming summer!

[Wales123098]

Below average, not as cold.

[Ben_Cambs]

I expect next winter to be similar to the one just passed, the past 2/3 winters have been getting colder, although I do think people's expectations to be very high after this winter, yes we have had a 20 year or so run of mild winters, up to 2008, but this was never going to continue for a long time. IMO we heading into a new cycle of colder and snowier winters, but for how long nobody knows.

[Weather-history]

on the basis that this winter is probably just a blip.

That is exactly what last winter was described as but it turned out it wasn't.

Interestingly 3 of the last 5 winters have been among the coldest winters of the last 20 years for the CET with the other two in that period being very mild.

2005-06 was the coldest since 1996-97 and I am sure some people were suggesting that this could be the lowest threshold that a winter could achieve these days.

2008-09 was the coldest since 1995-96 and this winter is going to be the coldest for over 20 years.

Consecutive winters with a sub 3C CET are not that common. The last occasion was 1984-85 and 1985-86 but before that you have to go back to the start of the 1940s and before that the 1880s.

So the odds don't favour a winter as cold as this one

[lukemc]

More of the same is my answer.

I firmly believe we are finished with the run of mild winters and over the next few years we're going to see a run of cold winters similar to how the 1960s was a generally cold decade. I don't have very high hopes for this coming summer!

Why do you think that this summer may be another poor one? I think that if a blocking regime continued into the summer months and if high pressure established itself over the UK the coming summer could end up being a rather warm and sunny one. After all we seem to be in quite a long period of Atlantic inactivity, and if that did continue into the summer months then a rather decent summer could be possible. I am not necessarily looking for endless days of 30C+, but if we had a protracted period of sunny weather with temperatures in the low to mid 20s I am sure all of us would be very happy event if we are entering a cooler period a good summer doesn't always mean blistering heatwaves with weeks of temperatures over 30C.

Anyway that post was a bit of self interest in some respects as unlike the last two summers, I am not going on holiday to Spain this year due to financial constraints so I need the coming summer the be a better one more than the last two as thier is no escape this time around for me if we get another poor summer!

Luke

[virtualsphere]

Why do you think that this summer may be another poor one? I think that if a blocking regime continued into the summer months and if high pressure established itself over the UK the coming summer could end up being a rather warm and sunny one. After all we seem to be in quite a long period of Atlantic inactivity, and if that did continue into the summer months then a rather decent summer could be possible. I am not necessarily looking for endless days of 30C+, but if we had a protracted period of sunny weather with temperatures in the low to mid 20s I am sure all of us would be very happy event if we are entering a cooler period a good summer doesn't always mean blistering heatwaves with weeks of temperatures over 30C.

I'm no expert but I assume that, if one of the main reasons we've experienced a couple of colder winters is the jet taking a more southerly track, this would also suggest that blocking in summer is likely to be from a more northerly source than ridging from the traditional Azores high, thus bringing colder conditions in any settled spells? Having said that I expect a continental easterly influence would probably bring warm weather.

I believe the jet normally moves northwards in the summer which brought us the warmer, dryer summers in the 1990s and early 2000s, and then sinks southwards in the winter leaving us in the path of Atlantic lows. The wet conditions over the last three summers were at least partly caused by the jet being right over the UK leaving us exposed to the lows, and now we've seen it sink south in winter bringing the cold weather. So if the jet does make its usual northward movement for the summer, it may not be far enough north to leave us in any prolonged ridging from a high with a southerly source?

Obviously if this pattern does continue then we would then be in with a good chance of a cold winter again next year, providing other factors work in our favour.

This is probably way too simplistic, so don't discount summer just yet!

[TEITS]

I was thinking earlier just how much has changed since I joined this forum.

When I first started posting on this forum I was dreadfully arrogant and would constantly predict E,lys even if the models were predicting mild SW,lys. However I was told quiet frequently how E,lys have become a thing of the past. Now in recent winters the E,lys have made a return once more and if anything they are definitely becoming more frequent. The E,ly in Dec was the highlight for me this winter because generally E,lys have never been that frequent in Dec even in the past. These tend to be more frequent in Feb, March.

As for this summer and the reason why im not that hopeful is the trend in recent years of the jet being further S than normal. Now due to the behaviour of the jet this winter I see no reason why this would change for this coming summer.

What will also be interesting this spring/early summer is the effect of the below average SSTS. Now considering the first half of March is likely to be cold this certainly won't help. I pity those who decide to have an early summer holiday in Norfolk, especially if their considering having a swim. What will be interesting to see if a warm spell does arrive in April, May, June is just how much colder it will be on the coasts compared to inland due to the sea breeze. Normally there is quiet a difference but this spring/early summer the difference could be much greater than normal!

Edited February 28, 2010 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

All this winter has done is confirm my own expectations as to the sort of winter that is still possible to experience in the UK. Indeed colder one's than this are still possible.

Regarding next winter I have no idea what it will be like on the day after the current one has ended, but even if it was back to being a mild one, it still means nothing in terms of what I have just said above. The point is that much needed perspective has finally been realised in terms of the outcome of this winter

[Eugene]

Winter 2009/10 was one of the best winters i've experienced(born in the 70`s), it was like old skool winters of the 1980`s but better because of the lack of mild even cold winters had back then, next winter is very unlikely to be as good on a prolonged consistent basis so i expect alot of people moaning even more than this winter just gone.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Much the same as 08/09 I think. Southerly tracking jet to dominate.

BFTP

[andymusic]

solar minima trending downwards over the coming couple of decades will continue this cold series of winters - there may be a "blip" of a mild one over that time but generally we will all be able to enjoy winters as they should be just like the one we've had or even better/snowier again than that. So my prediction for next winter will be cold again - and as with teits talking about blocking for summer - this should lead to this summer being nice and warm - no need to holiday abroad this year!

[SteveB]

I think next Winter will continue in the same vain as the last two. Maybe not all three Months coming in below average, but equally non of these super mild Winter Months.

Possibly a sub zero Month?

[MR EXTREMES]

More of the same is my answer.

I firmly believe we are finished with the run of mild winters and over the next few years we're going to see a run of cold winters similiar to how the 1960s was a generally cold decade. I don't have very high hopes for this coming summer!

and i absolutely agree,

i think 3 pretty average or ish summers.

and the cooler winter 08/09 and colder winter 09/10,

arctic ice holding a little better,

more snow cover in the northern hemsphere,

fading el nino and low solar activity,

which only really picked up in autumn and has started to slightly fall back.

plus the neg pdo and weaker ocean conveyor southerly tracking jet,

it all seems a little unfamiliar if you look back at the last 10 years or more i think where in the turning point and now heading for a different kind of climate shift.

solar minima trending downwards over the coming couple of decades will continue this cold series of winters - there may be a "blip" of a mild one over that time but generally we will all be able to enjoy winters as they should be just like the one we've had or even better/snowier again than that. So my prediction for next winter will be cold again - and as with teits talking about blocking for summer - this should lead to this summer being nice and warm - no need to holiday abroad this year!

agreed pehapes we will get a boost of warmth due to recent activity but solar is very much way below the 90s and early 80s levels.

but we could be wrong let wait and see i hope were right on the colder winters front.

[Nick L]

I reckon it will be milder than this winter (which isn't hard!) but still pretty cold.

[Ben_Cambs]

I think we will see another winter with a southerly tracking jet, and with low solar activity, IMO another cold winter is likely, and that would truely bury the even larger teapot "era". But thats guesswork though! Im more focused on what the summer will bring, maybe a little better than last summer, which wasnt to bad here, but again, thats pure guesswork!