What Are People’S Expectations For 2010/11 Winter?

[MP-R]

For this summer my expectations are:

Nothing amazing but certainly better than last year, perhaps more akin to June last year which had a bit of everything including some hefty rainfalls, one or two frontal rains, but a lot of sunshine and a hotter final third with some storms. I'd be happy with that for each summer month as it doesn't have to be anticyclonic to be sunny. In fact, the clearer days come in more cyclonic periods when the sun feels stronger than hazier anticyclones.

As for next winter:

December to be zonal during the first half then becoming colder and more anticyclonic with frost and fog. Then the high moving northwestwards bringing much colder uppers for January but with Atlantic lows trying to make inroads allowing for some frontal events like 13th Jan and 20th Jan this year. Then the Atlantic buggering off in February allowing for plenty of cold air to move from the continent to the UK.

I think if there was one thing that disappointed me the most about this winter after Jan 16th was how that high to the north was just too far south to allow an easterly blast in the first half of feb, then the numerous heavy snowfalls had from half term onwards didn't amount to anything because it had rained before and throughout it was pretty dull. So, basically, we had fantastic synoptics but all at the wrong time or position.

[Weather-history]

All this winter has done is confirm my own expectations as to the sort of winter that is still possible to experience in the UK. Indeed colder one's than this are still possible.

Yes, it has surpassed for coldness at least for the CET the winters of the 1900s, 1930s, 1950s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s

There were only one colder from the 1910s, 1920s, 1960s and 1970s with three colder from the 1940s.

It is probably the 8th coldest winter since 1900 for the CET.

There is one person who has been very quiet and that is Ian Brown. For the last few years, he has bombarded the forums with his even larger teapot, modern "era" theories etc and has been on the record saying that even a 1995-96 may not be achievable anymore. How on earth is he going to explain this? It was obvious to me even if there is a trend in one direction there were too many variables and random elememts to dismiss possibilities. Why Ian could not see this is beyond me.

His theory is in tatters, his benchmarks surpassed. This winter has been absolute disaster for him as he says he has written a book ironically called "At least it will be mild".

Edited March 1, 2010 by Mr_Data

[La Bise]

Let's be a bit wary here and not do a reverse-Ian Brown with resounding predictions of cold winters from now on due to solar minimas, etc, etc

[DAVID SNOW]

Let's be a bit wary here and not do a reverse-Ian Brown with resounding predictions of cold winters from now on due to solar minimas, etc, etc

True,but i dont think anyone is predicting a run of 20 or 30 cold winters with no chance of a mild one,that would be just bonkers

[VillagePlank]

Well, I think that the likely range for a Winter CET is something like 2.24..6.88 (Av +/- (StDev * 1.96)), for 1980 to present, so anything that falls outside that range is exceptional. This is a crude measure.

In terms of statistical analogues, using correlation testing (Pearson) where 2009 is compared to the closest correlating year, and then the following winter CET score is looked up, we have the following (post 1940) in descending order

• 1982, 4.27
  
• 1960, 4.90
  
• 1946, 1.13
  
• 2001, 5.37
  
• 1959, 4.63
  

Taking the average of these, I'd take a Winter CET of 4.06C which is exactly 0.5C under the 1980-present average.

Cool, cold at times, but not exceptionally, so.

Edited March 2, 2010 by VillagePlank

[kold weather]

I don't think the Arctic will be nearly as favourable next winter, this winter has been totally exceptional in this respect, indeed every bit as negative as the 60s, therefore this winter really should be viewed far more like a old school winter then a 'modern' winter.

El Nino may yet re-emerge briefly depsite what some of the climate models suggest in the early winter but I'd expect generally the global pattern to reflect a neutral pattern rather then anything else, eeven if El nino does slightly re develop.

I think a winter possibly like 05-06 may not be far from the truth, slightly below average but nothing like this winter...

But in all honesty, its all WAY too far out to make even an educated guess really!

[Sunset_Twilight]

Depends on the summer we have and maybe the sunspots !

[cooling climate]

With a mild, wet and virtually frost free autumn I remember several posters already

declaring winter is over. Absurd I know and I really hope it was a lesson learned considering

a coldest winter for maybe 30 years that followed.

While the UK last autumn was stuck in such a boring mild wet pattern the stratosphere

was doing anything but...

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

This played a massive part in the winter that followed along with the MMW that started

in mid-January. Despite increased activity on the sun, solar activity is still low to very

low and this along with other teleconnections should aid in further northern hemisphere

blocking.

[summer blizzard]

If El Nino persists/strengthens into next year i will be going for a more classic El Nino winter, though probably a decent February, if we are neutral/La Nina, i will go for a decent December but warmish January/February, the general theme being i don't expect anything special with a westerly QBO in place and a mature El Nino/new La Nina, though neutral ENSO conditions would probably give our best chance of a decent winter, ala 2006.