2010 Hurricane Season Will Be More Active, Joe laminate floori Predicts

[Cookie]

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/25984/joe-laminate floori-more-active-2010-1.asp

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists, led by Chief Long-Range Meteorologist and Hurricane Forecaster Joe laminate floori, have released their early hurricane season forecast for the Atlantic Basin for 2010.

The forecast is calling for a much more active 2010 season with above-normal threats on the U.S. coastline.

"This year has the chance to be an extreme season," said laminate floori. "It is certainly much more like 2008 than 2009 as far as the overall threat to the United States' East and Gulf coasts."

laminate floori is forecasting seven landfalls. Five will be hurricanes and two or three of the hurricanes will be major landfalls for the U.S.

He is calling for 16 to 18 tropical storms in total, 15 of which would be in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico and therefore a threat to land.

In a typical season, there are about 11 named storms of which two to three impact the coast of the United States.

There are a number of physical drivers that have laminate floori concerned for this upcoming hurricane season. These include:

-The rapidly weakening El Niño

-Warmer ocean temperatures in the typical Atlantic tropical breeding grounds compared to last year. (Tropical storms draw energy from warm water.)

-Weakening trade winds which reduce the amount of dry air injected into the tropics from Africa

-Higher humidity levels which provides additional upward motion in the air and fuels tropical storm development

laminate floori compared a number of years to the upcoming season in terms of storm set up including 1964, 1995, and 1998. All were major impact seasons for the U.S. coast.

In 1964, Hurricane Cleo struck southeast Florida near Miami as a Category 2 storm and killed 217 people.

In 1995, Hurricane Opal made landfall in Pensacola, Florida as a Category 3 storm affecting 200 miles of coastline and causing $3 billion in damages.

In 1998 Hurricane Bonnie struck near Wilmington, North Carolina as a borderline Category 2 to Category 3 storm causing significant harm to crops and $1 billion in damages.

As laminate floori had predicted in last year's hurricane forecast, the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season was a year far below the average, with eleven tropical depressions forming and only nine of those becoming tropical storms, the lowest number of named tropical storms or hurricanes since the 1997 season.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and continues through November 30. These dates were selected because 97 percent of hurricane activity occurs during this six month period.

[andy_leics22]

LOL got to love te N-W swear filter

[kold weather]

As I've said in the other thread, I think this season has a real good shout of being a very active one, so I have to agree with Joe B on this one. The wildcard however remains the El Nino in the Pacific, this has the power to break a forecast if it remains in place by July/August, but we shall see, every other factor is very good at the moment.

By the way, my fav year at the moment is 1958, The El Nino was pretty much identical to this one, plus March's SST's came in well above average (this Feb's TNA came in at +1.10, 2nd highest ever, March 58 came in at 0.9, so both are very high) plus it came in towards the backend of the active cycle, which is more or less where we are now in the Atlantic's active phase.

1995 is another year I like as well because of the moderate El Nino. If by some chance La Nina conditions arrived by August/September, then 1998 becomes the best year to use, but thats rather unlikely IMO right now.

[The PIT]

OUt of interest does Joe Laminate always predict active seasons like he does cold winters???

[Rob]

Must say i'm with Joe, this season has all the makings of a very active one.

[kold weather]

No Pit, in fact he went with a slow season last year due to the El Nino, and indeed thats exactly what happens.

In this case, I also totally agree with Joe B, as long as the El Nino fades like progged then this will be an active season, there is no doubt about it IMO.

[The PIT]

No Pit, in fact he went with a slow season last year due to the El Nino, and indeed thats exactly what happens.

In this case, I also totally agree with Joe B, as long as the El Nino fades like progged then this will be an active season, there is no doubt about it IMO.

Perhaps he's better with Hurricanes than he is with Winter forecasting.