Model Watch For Tour 2

[gpspete]

perhaps we ought to buy safety specs to wear in car

SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL OUTBREAK OF SUPERCELLS

CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES

worried about car windows

what a forecast looks to start with some action on sunday then a big day monday almost definitely same tuesday then some more wednesday possibly thursday and a suspicion/hints of a do it all again from other stormchase forums the next weekend

[dogs32]

yes I reckon its trough after trough through-out the week and the following..

USA GFS have been real good at picking this up way back last week...

If anything they are getting more better..

just packed all camera's and now my clothes....

On a coach to London in 17 hrs -ish

edit...im getting jet stream charts when its suppose to be CAPE....even the charts are over excited

edit..back to normal now

Edited May 6, 2010 by dogs32

[Stuart]

someone as informed me of a good possible outbreak next week

my lucky dip as paid off

nice find Pete

leaving in 20hrs time

a quote from Reed Timmer.....

Next week looks like the apocalypse.

give it to me baby...lol..!!!

does anyone know the next update time on the GFS.

Have a safe Trip over hope you see lots of super Cell

[dogs32]

cheers Stu..

looking at the charts at the temps it looks like some cold weather spreading down from the North

to nice air masses meeting with a nice strong jet moving in

Edited May 6, 2010 by dogs32

[Dorsetbred]

cheers Stu..

looking at the charts at the temps it looks like some cold weather spreading down from the North

to nice air masses meeting with a nice strong jet moving in

Come on now don't use it all up before tour three begins, save some for us.

Edited May 6, 2010 by Dorsetbred

[dogs32]

Come on now don't use it all up before trip three begins, save some for us.

...still looking stormy for quite a while yet to come..

but the charts sometime's chop and change...But hats off to the GFS for this year

I hope the cold weather doesnt spread to far South we will be snow nado chasing

Edited May 6, 2010 by dogs32

[Paul Sherman]

Yes

The Outlook is Amazing and it looks like we will see the 4th "High Risk" in 2 Weeks here which in itself is outstanding as the average is 2 to 3 per year!

Monday looks the biggie - Let's just hope the Models continue to show the same over the next crucial 48 hours or so.

Just as an aside, spoke with my good StormChase Buddy who works with the legendary Gary England (This guy saved most of the lives in the 1999 Outbreak) and he is saying this has similar hallmarks to the 3rd May 1999.

We shall see..................

Paul S

[dogs32]

Yes

The Outlook is Amazing and it looks like we will see the 4th "High Risk" in 2 Weeks here which in itself is outstanding as the average is 2 to 3 per year!

Monday looks the biggie - Let's just hope the Models continue to show the same over the next crucial 48 hours or so.

Just as an aside, spoke with my good StormChase Buddy who works with the legendary Gary England (This guy saved most of the lives in the 1999 Outbreak) and he is saying this has similar hallmarks to the 3rd May 1999.

We shall see..................

Paul S

yes the tornado trend is shooting up now....according to SPC,may it continue to shoot vertical...and of course without loss of life

looking awesome Paul...

Edited May 6, 2010 by dogs32

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Yes

The Outlook is Amazing and it looks like we will see the 4th "High Risk" in 2 Weeks here which in itself is outstanding as the average is 2 to 3 per year!

Monday looks the biggie - Let's just hope the Models continue to show the same over the next crucial 48 hours or so.

Just as an aside, spoke with my good StormChase Buddy who works with the legendary Gary England (This guy saved most of the lives in the 1999 Outbreak) and he is saying this has similar hallmarks to the 3rd May 1999.

We shall see..................

Paul S

A high risk day would be amazing! Last year we were lucky to just get a slight risk, just one on the tour I was on if I remember right.

Can't wait to get out there, hopefully we'll have something on Sunday too which would be a good warm up for the big event!

[dogs32]

A high risk day would be amazing! Last year we were lucky to just get a slight risk, just one on the tour I was on if I remember right.

Can't wait to get out there, hopefully we'll have something on Sunday too which would be a good warm up for the big event!

Mark do you and Jo land Sunday?

a bit confused as Im going earlier than expected and all the time differences ect..

Edited May 6, 2010 by dogs32

[Gray-Wolf]

Hope you Guys on tour 2 are thinking 'safety first'!!! I'm already excited at the prospects for early next week!

[dogs32]

Vortex 2 is targetting OK next week at present....

Cant see how they already know where to go this far out

while Kansas I feel as a few good possabilities...But im NO expert

I think the Sherminator will know near the time :lol:

and Texas..well whole hell might let loose there in my favourite place called Childress

with free drinks from the Indian man as you watch the Supercells

edit..

US news tonight Travis Meyer said possible Major Severe Weather Outbreak across Oklahoma and Kansas.

cheers Mark

edit..thx Jo..I thought it was 8 hrs behind.....Im in confused.com

Edited May 6, 2010 by dogs32

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Mark do you and Jo land Sunday?

a bit confused as Im going earlier than expected and all the time differences ect..

No we land Saturday, hopefully the last quiet day for a while.

[TornadoJo]

Mark do you and Jo land Sunday?

a bit confused as Im going earlier than expected and all the time differences ect..

Hey

Dave, Mark and I land on Saturday the 8th (same day arrival as flight) and get home a day after we leave.

Dallas is 6 hrs behind uk time.

Hope you Guys on tour 2 are thinking 'safety first'!!! I'm already excited at the prospects for early next week!

Well,

I've packed two first aid kits and a survival kit plus I'm a qualified first aider so don't panic...

Hope I won't have to use any of that though!!

J x

Edited May 6, 2010 by Clippyjo

[Arron]

I think we'll need a few more survival kits if John and Toms wind issues dont resolve themselves :wacko:

[Tom Lynch]

Hey

Dave, Mark and I land on Saturday the 8th (same day arrival as flight) and get home a day after we leave.

Dallas is 6 hrs behind uk time.

Well,

I've packed two first aid kits and a survival kit plus I'm a qualified first aider so don't panic...

Hope I won't have to use any of that though!!

J x

Yes Dallas is 6 hours behind.

Hope not to need any kind of first aid but you never know.

Looking forward to seeing you all in Dallas.

Tom

[dogs32]

I think we are going to try to get up and personal with a Twister going across a road... :wacko:

TV station's are now picking this possible major event up...

I always thought Dallas was 8 hrs behind..

Edited May 6, 2010 by dogs32

[TornadoJo]

I think we are going to try to get up and personal with a Twister going across a road...

TV station's are now picking this possible major event up...

I always thought Dallas was 8 hrs behind..

According to the wonderious invention that is my HTC phone the time is now 11.02 in Dallas.

Edited May 6, 2010 by Clippyjo

[ANYWEATHER]

According to the Spc ,looks good for the day 4 to 8 outlook and if you read the text along with that chart Monday looks encouraging for the development of Strong Tornadic storms. So good news for tour two and judging by the latest gfs outlook ,Mondays chase will perhaps be around the Texan and Oklhahoma panhandle....anyway good luck to all!

[Nick F]

Looks very good on 12z ECM for reloading severe weather pattern across the Great Plains next week and beyond, with the mean trough staying over Rockies/Mountain West, with mean ridge over Ern USA :lol:

[nsrobins]

00GFS Fri - has backed off Sunday's potential and is now slow to return moisture into the region, but an opportunity exists further south down the DL towards Lubbock.

Monday however still looks insane, and the combined parameters support a significant event W and C OK and S C KS. When NAM emerges i wouldn't be surprised to see some eye-popping SRH values. Use Sunday as a 'training and bedding in' session, as the teams will have to have their wits about them from Monday if the charts are to be believed. 45kn storm speeds in 4000+ CAPE and off the roof shear. Phew!

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Latest SPC 4-8 day...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0342 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2010

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR SVRL DAYS AT

MAINTAINING A COHERENT UPR TROUGH AS IT EJECTS ENE FROM THE FOUR

CORNERS TO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY /DAY 4/. ALTHOUGH 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE

SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED/FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE...ALL INDICATIONS

CONTINUE TO POINT TO A STRONG SFC LOW MIGRATING ACROSS NRN KS DURING

THE AFTN WITH STRONG SLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MID-UPR 60S DEW POINTS

NWD ALONG ERN EDGE OF A STOUT EML. EXPECT STORMS WILL INITIATE

ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM CNTRL KS INTO WRN OK BY MID-MONDAY

AFTN...THEN MATURE INTO SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR

ACROSS CNTRL-ERN KS/OK DURING THE EVENING. FCST

THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF A

SIGNIFICANT SVR EVENT...INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE

HAIL.

THEREAFTER...THE UPR WAVE IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND SHEAR ENE TOWARD

THE GRTLKS REGION. IN ITS WAKE...ANOTHER MID-LVL WAVE WILL SETTLE

INTO THE GRT BASIN REGION...BUT GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON THE

HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE. ADDITIONALLY...IT IS UNCLEAR ON WHERE THE

FRONT THAT FOLLOWS THE FORMER WAVE WILL BE LOCATED GIVEN WHAT WILL

LIKELY BE A COUPLE DAYS OF EPISODIC TSTM CLUSTERS THAT WILL AUGMENT

THE FRONT. AS SUCH...BEYOND DAY 4...THE DECREASE IN PATTERN

PREDICTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE THE DRAWING OF ADDITIONAL SVR AREAS.

..RACY.. 05/07/2010

Not giving much away beyond Monday, but looks like interesting times ahead.

[kold weather]

00GFS Fri - has backed off Sunday's potential and is now slow to return moisture into the region, but an opportunity exists further south down the DL towards Lubbock.

Monday however still looks insane, and the combined parameters support a significant event W and C OK and S C KS. When NAM emerges i wouldn't be surprised to see some eye-popping SRH values. Use Sunday as a 'training and bedding in' session, as the teams will have to have their wits about them from Monday if the charts are to be believed. 45kn storm speeds in 4000+ CAPE and off the roof shear. Phew!

Monday looking like a very explosive type of day, the SPC are very agressive indeed with the wording and suggesting even at day-4 there could be a significant outbreak. I'm looking at probably a 50-50 chance that it ends up going High risk because as you've nicely laid out, the dynamics on the models at the moment for Monday are nothing short of explosive!

[BlueHedgehog074]

I really hope Monday's strong storm potential goes ahead, with some good chances of storm developement in the models, maps and charts.

Just a little worried that with Monday still a few days away, that the potential could become downgraded (or maybe upgraded more) should any changes in the pattern and/or CAPE levels occur.

Mind you, it looks like you will certainly get something big out of this and I wish you all good luck with the storms.

[dogs32]

this is looking scary...might have to pack my bags and head out of here