Model Watch For Tour 2

[gpspete]

Yep 06Z GFS continues to pick-up on a long-lived dryline set-up from Sunday evening, with some Lubbock Lunacy on the cards. Near perfect storm-chasing country down there, if you can tolerate the heat.

by the sounds of it chaser convoys and traffic jams as people are starting to plan to arrive over weekend.

[Gorky]

Vortex 2 got money to start 2 weeks early this year AFAIK so they'll be out in force next week. Good for them, and good for those who are interested in all the tech. I was in Silverton last year when they turned up en masse and the face on the Gas Station attendants face as 2 DOW's half a dozen trucks with trailers, about 10 SUV's stamped Texas Tech, The Weather Channel and MSNBC all turned up at once was priceless. He did good business that day.! I had that forecourt to my own up until that point

Could be some traffic jams next week at this rate!

[dogs32]

looks like many days of Supercell sight seeing on the cards...From Texas to Kansas..

Lets hope the Jet forces some nice moisture North from the Gulf

Loveing these Net Weather charts

looking forward to the next update

Edited May 5, 2010 by dogs32

[nsrobins]

This morning's GFS looks a little more progressive with the Sun/Mon set-up and has moved the corridor east along the I35. This will soon come into NAM range and then the specifics will start to leak out. Until then the potential is definately there of several chase opportunities from Sunday onwards.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

SPC 4-8 day update...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0328 AM CDT WED MAY 05 2010

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...

THE 05/00Z ECMWF REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH AT LEAST THE PREVIOUS TWO

RUNS IN SUGGESTING THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE

FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY ON DAY 5 /SUN MAY

9TH/...BEFORE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO THE

CNTRL PLAINS ON DAY 6 /MON MAY 10TH/. WHILE THE LATEST GFS HAS

TRENDED AWAY FROM THIS SCENARIO...PREVIOUS RUNS ARE MUCH MORE

SIMILAR...AS ARE A NUMBER OF 05/00Z MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

AN ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY OVER

ERN CO...ALLOWING FOR THE NWD RETURN OF AN AIR MASS THAT SHOULD BE

RELATIVELY MOIST GIVEN THE UNDISTURBED STATE OF THE WRN GULF OF

MEXICO. ASSUMING A SETUP SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE CURRENT ECMWF...ALL

THE INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER

EVENT ON DAY 6 ALONG THE DRY LINE FROM WRN KANSAS SWWD TO NWRN TX.

THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY LARGER-SCALE

TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WRN STATES.

HOWEVER...DETAILS IN ITS EVOLUTION ARE UNCLEAR. THEREFORE...NO

ADDITIONAL AREAS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.

..MEAD.. 05/05/2010

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

Plenty to get excited about!

[Nick F]

Yes, looking very good atm for a severe storm day next Monday ... GFS seems to be trending further east with the lee cyclone and thus severe risk, more over Ern KS/Wern MO whereas ECMWF has the risk over Wrn KS/OK and NWrn TX. Still needs firming up this far out, put could be a moderate risk E and SE of the low setting up over the High Plains with a strong jet over Kansas and some rich moisture being dragged in from the SE. May even be some play before on Sunday too. But Monday probably the big day.

[nsrobins]

06Z GFS Weds - I'm still drawn to the Sunday potential here, as there's a very well defined DL that has now shunted further west again at 00Z 10.5.10 and a SE surface flow will readily advect 60+ dps across the Caprocks. The cap looks very stout though but any storm breaking through on or just east of the DL should have no problem and a few very large high-based but discrete cells look likely - I'd be thinking Amarillo down to Plainview for a rough initiation axis.

Then we go into Monday . .

[dogs32]

:unsure: the fever is taking over...in my case months ago..lol.

watching these charts now at every update

I keep packing and unpacking checking to make sure I havent forgotten anything..

Edited May 5, 2010 by dogs32

[TornadoJo]

the fever is taking over...in my case months ago..lol.

watching these charts now at every update

I keep packing and unpacking checking to make sure I havent forgotten anything..

LOL - I'm not the only one then!

I keep changing my mind about which bag to take - think I'm going for the bigger one again.

Multiple reasons but mostly if I'm gonna have to check the bag in the hold anyway because of liquids I should use the one they're less likely to loose. Oh and the wheels! Carring a big bag across london the the tube may not be fun!

The outlook is sounding very positive and the charts look great (from what I undersatnd....)

Soooo Exciting!!!

Edited May 5, 2010 by Clippyjo

[dogs32]

LOL - I'm not the only one then!

I keep changing my mind about which bag to take - think I'm going for the bigger one again.

Multiple reasons but mostly if I'm gonna have to check the bag in the hold anyway because of liquids I should use the one they're less likely to loose. Oh and the wheels! Carring a big bag across london the the tube may not be fun!

The outlook is sounding very positive and the charts look great (from what I undersatnd....)

Soooo Exciting!!!

I have a hunch its going to be Kansas at some point for Toto next week..

so you can put your red shoes on Jo

GFS hasnt backed down on a potent potentail next week.. :unsure:

Edited May 5, 2010 by dogs32

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

You're both more organised than me, not started packing yet and probably won't until tomorrow or Friday.

Getting really excited with the models and forecasts, just want to get work sorted now and get out there.

Hope the ash keeps well away for us.

[TornadoJo]

I have a hunch its going to be Kansas at some point for Toto next week..

so you can put your red shoes on Jo

GFS hasnt backed down on a potent potentail next week..

I haven't even packed them.....either pair....

Just want to say a big thanks to everyone posting the outlooks and to those summerising

them for people like me who don't speak the lingo.

Much appreciated

xxx

Edited May 5, 2010 by Clippyjo

[dogs32]

I know its a long way off,but its still nice to watch..lol

just a bit of fun and wishfull thinking

laughing my backside off with the last image...

Edited May 5, 2010 by dogs32

[Stuart]

well we will nerver see high Li like that in the uk

[dogs32]

well we will nerver see high Li like that in the uk

Stuart..ARMAGADEON..L0L....

The charts..Cape are more consistant in the states than here.

though plenty of time for things to change

Edited May 5, 2010 by dogs32

[Tornado Researcher]

Hey Everyone

What's on the weather menu today so far?...

P.S It'd be cool to have some sound rolling on the live stream and have some more banter rolling lol

[dogs32]

Hey Everyone

What's on the weather menu today so far?...

P.S It'd be cool to have some sound rolling on the live stream and have some more banter rolling lol

i think they are positioning them -selves for tomorrow and hoping some discreet cells might pop up East Kansas..I think thats the plan??

Banter...Probably no sound due to swearing .. :lol:

or Tom's joke's

only kidding Tom

going to do some more research myself as I reckon this is going to be an explosive few weeks in the Plains

Edited May 5, 2010 by dogs32

[Tornado Researcher]

Cheers buddy, sounds like a plan

I haven't got round to checking any of the weather models yet, but it'll be worth a quick jeff juke and see what big mamma N is cookin up in the plains :lol:

lol, who cares about the swearing?... surely it adds a bit of color to the character of the banter lol (I don't know where the hell that phrase came from)

[craig1uk]

When does the model watch start for tour 3? I'm looking at early charts but have no idea what they mean

[gpspete]

Reed Timmer has put an article on his website about the 30th APRIL Scotland Arkansas Tornado read to bottom of his article what he thinks of next weeks outlook http://www.tornadovideos.net/component/content/article/1209

[dogs32]

:yahoo: someone as informed me of a good possible outbreak next week

my lucky dip as paid off

nice find Pete

leaving in 20hrs time

a quote from Reed Timmer.....

Next week looks like the apocalypse. :rofl:

give it to me baby...lol..!!!

does anyone know the next update time on the GFS.

Edited May 6, 2010 by dogs32

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

GFS should be updating from 10:30.

Looking forward to the SPC 4-8 day update too, shouldn't be long now.

Love that quote from Reed Timmer

[dogs32]

GFS should be updating from 10:30.

Looking forward to the SPC 4-8 day update too, shouldn't be long now.

Love that quote from Reed Timmer

10.30 IT IS THEN

going to be a stormy landing

who said this year was going to be crap

lol@ at Nick..

yes..EXCITED AINT THE WORD

HOLY COW..I NEED LIFE INSURANCE

i think Plainview will now be called the baby compared to the Mother due to arrive next week..

Her name is TOTO SUPERCELL

Edited May 6, 2010 by dogs32

[Nick F]

Boy are you guys on Tour 2 in for a treat early next week, significant tornadoes Day 5/Monday whet your appetite?

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0322 AM CDT THU MAY 06 2010

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...

06/00Z ECMWF...GFS AND MEDIUM-RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN

GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN

THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. ON DAY 4 /SUN MAY 9TH/...THE

NWD RETURN OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH THE ERN EDGE OF AN EML

DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN STATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY

UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER WRN TX. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A

WEAK...LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION MAY PROGRESS EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH

PLAINS BY LATE DAY...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING ISOLATED STORM FORMATION

ALONG THE DRY LINE...OR PERHAPS A RETREATING WARM FRONT. VERTICAL

SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS

WITH THE THREATS FOR HAIL AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. DUE TO

UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM INITIATION AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE...NO SEVERE

WEATHER AREA WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST.

ON DAY 5 /MON MAY 10TH/...MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE

NEWD PROGRESSION OF AN INTENSE...NEGATIVELY-TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH

INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED...RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE

LOW OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL DRAW A MOIST AIR MASS

NWD...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL OUTBREAK OF SUPERCELLS

CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.

ON DAY 6 /TUE MAY 11TH/...THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO

DE-AMPLIFY/FILL AS IS PROGRESSES NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM THE

UPPER MIDWEST INTO OZARK PLATEAU. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED POOR

LAPSE RATES...WEAKENING SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING/WIDESPREAD

STORMS...THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT

REMAINS IN QUESTION.

ON DAY 7 /WED MAY 12TH/...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD

AGREEMENT IN THE SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER

THE WRN STATES. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES DO EXIST IN THE LOCATION OF

NE-SW ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL STRETCH FROM WEAKENING LOW

PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THIS

FRONTAL LOCATION BECOMES EVEN MORE PROBLEMATIC WHEN FACTORING IN THE

POSSIBILITY THAT EPISODIC TSTM ACTIVITY FOR THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS

COULD POTENTIALLY DISPLACE THE EFFECTIVE FRONT EVEN FARTHER S.

WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND TO THE S OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE

SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...UNCERTAINTY IN ITS LOCATION PRECLUDES

THE ISSUANCE OF AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREA.

[TornadoJo]

This calls of a desk happy dance....

dododo, dododo, dododo