Model Watch For Tour 2

[Paul Sherman]

Oh go on then and seeing as we started one for Tour 1 about 10 days ago here is a thread for Tour 2 to watch and see if anything starts to stand out.

Remember these Charts should be taken with a Pinch of Salt at this range

I am sure Nick or Nathan will keep this thread Updated if we cant whilst Chasing over the Pond

So what would Chase Day 1 look like on Sat 8th May

- Sat 8th May

Not a bad start

[dogs32]

nice.....certainly going into a unsettled pattern from yesterday..

Im getting to love the jet stream

Edited April 23, 2010 by dogs32

[Paul Sherman]

Woops

Saturday is the Changeover Day - Lets hope people dont get delayed

[Paul Sherman]

Another Update

- Tour 2 Landing Day

- 1st Chase Day Sun 9th

Still Looking like the active Pattern continues through May

Paul S

[user700]

Another Update

- Tour 2 Landing Day

- 1st Chase Day Sun 9th

Still Looking like the active Pattern continues through May

Paul S

Don't need to go far then?

[dogs32]

looks like Im going to be video-ing again at the same Hotel..how Ironic..deja-vu

Cape on that is awesome

Edited April 24, 2010 by dogs32

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Nice charts, I'm getting excited now, can't believe it's only 2 weeks!

Looking forward to following tour 1 too.

[dogs32]

still looking goods for us left for T2

just been studying the charts from different places,and by the looks of thing's we will have a pattern of 'lull's' followed by a Low or severe weather in cycles.

Looks like another Low will shoot down into Kansas,N,Texas by next Thursday or the week end....And then a lull before the next cycle...

And this pattern repeats itself..

this unsettled weather will continue with a on and off pattern right up to our Tour..and beyond

Just my opinion!!!

still learning :lol:

Edited April 25, 2010 by dogs32

[Gorky]

Just had a very brief look at the models for tour 2 again. I think things will change greatly based on a fairly dynamic week ahead for Tour 1, but if we were to take the models at face value today, the ECMWF model shows a nice trough swinging in through today and tomorrow. Sticking around through 168 and then being replaced by a ridge. Should leave Tour 1 with a fair few chase opportunities through May 4th/5th, followed by a quiet spell. The ECMWF only show progs up to the morning of the 8th, but GFS is in rough agreement with this ridge moving in. The GFS runs a bit longer and moves another trough in through the latter part of the model run with a fair few potent setups on the cards. There would be about 4 days of lower risk activity centred over the changeover days which is as good as you could hope for really, assuming the next trough comes through as advertised . Even these 'down' days with a weak flat jet and good dews limited to Texas could well provide chasable storms in the hill country which means not far for tour 1 to go when leaving or tour 2 to travel to to see their first storms.

Again, caveat is that this is T240 plus for Tour 2 still and with a dynamic week ahead, I expect things will change. The 0z runs yesterday and the day before were both quite different and quite amazing. The 12z runs both days were pretty poor in comparison. This 6z run is pretty average compared to those. (With pretty average on the American Storm Scale being the same as utterly mindblowing on a UK scale!)

I'll probably not update this thread too much until after this weeks system moves through due to lack of confidense in a good forecast but it's fun to do an occasional run down...

[Paul]

All the tour 2 final info packs have gone out this evening - if anyone hasn't received theirs please let me know and I'll resend!

[dogs32]

Just had a very brief look at the models for tour 2 again. I think things will change greatly based on a fairly dynamic week ahead for Tour 1, but if we were to take the models at face value today, the ECMWF model shows a nice trough swinging in through today and tomorrow. Sticking around through 168 and then being replaced by a ridge. Should leave Tour 1 with a fair few chase opportunities through May 4th/5th, followed by a quiet spell. The ECMWF only show progs up to the morning of the 8th, but GFS is in rough agreement with this ridge moving in. The GFS runs a bit longer and moves another trough in through the latter part of the model run with a fair few potent setups on the cards. There would be about 4 days of lower risk activity centred over the changeover days which is as good as you could hope for really, assuming the next trough comes through as advertised . Even these 'down' days with a weak flat jet and good dews limited to Texas could well provide chasable storms in the hill country which means not far for tour 1 to go when leaving or tour 2 to travel to to see their first storms.

Again, caveat is that this is T240 plus for Tour 2 still and with a dynamic week ahead, I expect things will change. The 0z runs yesterday and the day before were both quite different and quite amazing. The 12z runs both days were pretty poor in comparison. This 6z run is pretty average compared to those. (With pretty average on the American Storm Scale being the same as utterly mindblowing on a UK scale!)

I'll probably not update this thread too much until after this weeks system moves through due to lack of confidense in a good forecast but it's fun to do an occasional run down...

thoughh early days alot could change

keep us updated Nathan....difficult to check here in Majorca with hotel security playing up with some issues on Netweather... :blush:

just managed to check out the charts...and the 11th looks interesting for the Wizard of Ozz in Toto country

Edited April 29, 2010 by dogs32

[dogs32]

Nathan thanks for update

felt like drinking more s angria heavy..now feel more hopefull...will have a drink on you

[Gorky]

Models are still a little all over the place, but again, the 6z today shows a quiet period for the last couple of days of Tour 1 and first couple of Tour 2 as moisture recovers. Thereafter, this run is a beauty with a LP system sitting over the rockies for a few days brining several rounds of severe weather to OK/KS/NE, with chasing everyday from Monday through Sunday bar a travel day back West towards the end I can only hope that stays as advertised, though I doubt we'd get so lucky

[dogs32]

maybe Odessa for the first chase :lol:

Gangster country Amigo

!

loving the charts from the 11th...looking consistant for days

need plenty of under wear..lol...looking vicious

Edited May 2, 2010 by dogs32

[gpspete]

maybe Odessa for the first chase

Gangster country Amigo

!

loving the charts from the 11th...looking consistant for days

need plenty of under wear..lol...looking vicious

i have just checked the NWS outlook for days 4 to 8 very indisisive of whats going to happen seems there may be some storm activity at the weekend but where and what type see

http://www.spc.noaa....s/exper/day4-8/

this link will update as day go on so you can start here

http://www.spc.noaa....k/day1otlk.html

and i have checked the ongoing charts also i am charging the cam & camera batteries now

Edited May 2, 2010 by gpspete

[dogs32]

i have just checked the NWS outlook for days 4 to 8 very indisisive of whats going to happen seems there may be some storm activity at the weekend but where and what type see

http://www.spc.noaa....s/exper/day4-8/

this link will update as day go on so you can start here

http://www.spc.noaa....k/day1otlk.html

and i have checked the ongoing charts also i am charging the cam & camera batteries now

cheers for t he links Pete looking more positive I feel...

will check regular..

will be getting everything ready for the CHASE OF A LIFE TIME...CANT WAIT..

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Taken from the updated 4-8 day outlook...

THE NEXT MAJOR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WRN

U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH AN ASSOCIATED

INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS

BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

[gpspete]

i am also keeping an eye on that volcano fingers crossed

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Slightly worrying that the volcano is causing problems again, but looks like the southern parts of the UK will have a NE wind keeping the ash well away from Heathrow towards the end of the week.

GFS charts still looking good, latest charts show a settled day for landing with temps in low 20's, then things look really interesting with temps rising over 30 for Sunday and Monday and CAPE up to 3000+

[Gorky]

This morning's 6z run is a thing of beauty for next week. It is starting to show the West Coast trough sticking around a lot longer, like the ECMWF has been showing, and is slower to eject the systems through the plains. This results in much more sustained moisture draw from the GOM, and some blockbuster events forecast for May 10th - May 12th. Still 6 days out and subject to change, but let's hope this is a start of a trend towards the ECM rather than just a one off!

[gpspete]

volcano starting to cause problems hope there is no repeat of a few weeks back as the outlook is looking good from sunday onwards for 4/5 straight chase days at least posters on stormtrack ramping it up http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=23871

[Nick F]

Yes, starting look good for early next week, when the next Pacific trough arrives and starts return of gulf moisture and falling heights. Latest SPC indicating next Monday a shortwave trough perhaps ejecting NE around this upper long-wave trough moving in from the west - which may serve to destabilise the warm moist air advecting north across the Plains.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0343 AM CDT TUE MAY 04 2010

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...

04/00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT

IN THE EWD PROGRESSION OF AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED

SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE GREAT

LAKES AND OH VALLEY ON DAY 4 /FRI MAY 7TH/. WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER

MOISTURE MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE

RATES...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD

CONTRIBUTE TO A FAST-MOVING...COLD FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING A SIZABLE SWATH OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THEREAFTER...MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE

DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES BY DAY

5 INTO DAY 6 /SAT MAY 8TH INTO SUN MAY 9TH/. AND THE LATEST RUNS OF

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE NEWD EJECTION OF A

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON DAY 7 /MON MAY

10TH/. HOWEVER...THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN

INTRA-MODEL VARIABILITY WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS

FEATURE. THEREFORE...NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREAS WILL BE

DELINEATED ATTM.

..MEAD.. 05/04/2010

Before then, looks to be fairly quiet, with the best risk of a severe storm over the northern Plains and NE USA.

[dogs32]

people concerned here about volcano....hope i get home to see Texas kick ass next week :drunk:

sorry im rather excited,charts have been consistant for ages with this...

looking like a stormy period coming up...

have to keep an eye on this new plume as its heading south of the UK...

Edited May 4, 2010 by dogs32

[gpspete]

just checked several models and several well known stormchasers websites for bits of info looks like we may not need to leave the prime chase area of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas till thursday at least,

a long shot still at this stage but there is a lot of anticipation that there is big severe weather event looking lightly the next 2 or 3 days models will hopefully reinforce the outlook just hoping that i will have beginners luck and it dont go bust

Edited May 4, 2010 by gpspete

[nsrobins]

people concerned here about volcano....hope i get home to see Texas kick ass next week

sorry im rather excited,charts have been consistant for ages with this...

looking like a stormy period coming up...

have to keep an eye on this new plume as its heading south of the UK...

Yep 06Z GFS continues to pick-up on a long-lived dryline set-up from Sunday evening, with some Lubbock Lunacy on the cards. Near perfect storm-chasing country down there, if you can tolerate the heat.