Model Watch For Tour 2

[NL]

Owdo Pat... Hope you have a safe and plentyful stormchase, i'm sure you'll not have long to wait for 'Rotation'...

[dogs32]

Owdo Pat... Hope you have a safe and plentyful stormchase, i'm sure you'll not have long to wait for 'Rotation'...

hi mate,lol

im just sat here in this hotel room after doing some shopping for some beers...

and getting tipsy plus shattered after going to Spain as the flight had to be diverted due to ASH cloud..lol

listening to the NOA radio forecast's and there predicting a chance for severe weather on Monday

I need to be scared to death on this tour...

looking forward to seeing a F4 OR F5..wishing

[stormyskys]

Hi all, i was booked for tour 3 but had to drop out because i was made redundent last november.Hopefully i'll be there next year.Good luck to everyone on all tours.

[Paul Sherman]

Some Pretty Strong Wording from the SPC - This has all the Hallmarks of a Newsworthy Outbreak. Lets hope major Cities are not impacted!

I expect a HIGH Risk on tomorrow's Update.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0227 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO

THE MID-MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE MID-LVL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE GRT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL

EJECT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AS A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ON

MONDAY AS THE NEXT IMPULSE DROPS SEWD TO THE PAC NW. AT THE SFC...A

LEE LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER ERN CO THEN MOVE ACROSS NRN KS BY MONDAY

EVENING THEN TO SRN IA BY 12Z TUESDAY. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD TO

THE S OF THE LOW...REACHING WRN KS AND THE TX/OK BORDER AREA BY

EARLY AFTN MONDAY...THEN INTO CNTRL KS AND WRN OK BY EVENING. TO

THE E...A WRMFNT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD INTO THE MID-MS VLY.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VLY...

MONDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH

STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER

CNTRL/SCNTRL KS AND EXTREME NWRN/NCNTRL OK.

BANDS/CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY

MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS/OK OWING TO A ROBUST WAA REGIME

WITHIN A BROAD 45-50 KT SSWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PROVE

PROBLEMATIC FOR A NWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTN AND

THIS UNCERTAINTY WAS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR NOT UPGRADING TO A MDT

RISK.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH...HOWEVER...IN THE RETURN OF

MID/UPR 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS E OF THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT

INTO AT LEAST SWRN KS BY AFTN. DRYLINE CIRCULATION WILL DEEPEN WITH

APPROACH OF THE UPR TROUGH BY MID-AFTN AND STRONG HEATING WILL ERODE

CINH FOR TSTM INITIATION...MOSTLY LIKELY IN WRN KS. FARTHER

S...CINH WILL BE STRONGER AND LARGE SCALE FORCING COMPARATIVELY

WEAKER ACROSS WRN OK. BUT...ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED

OUT AS FAR S AS WRN OK/RED RIVER.

EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 55 KTS AND THE ORIENTATION OF VECTORS

PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE WILL STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. FCST

HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT STRONGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH THE

COMPLETE VERTICAL PROFILE SIGNATURES INDICATIVE OF HISTORIC STRONG

TORNADIC CASES. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR N AND E THE QUALITY WARM

SECTOR WILL EXPAND. THE MAXIMUM TORNADO THREAT MAY REALISTICALLY BE

IN NARROW ZONE ACROSS SCNTRL/CNTRL KS INTO NCNTRL OK BEFORE STORMS

MOVE TOWARD A MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. LATER OUTLOOKS CAN

ADDRESS THIS UNCERTAINTY.

OTHERWISE...STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND

DEVELOP/MOVE ENE TOWARD THE MID-MS VLY OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL THE

PRIMARY THREAT.

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Our ba flight due to leave at 11:40 has been delayed due to the ash. Jo, Dave and I should be there about 2 hours later than expected.

[user700]

Hi, anymore forecasts for tour 2

[Nick F]

12z GFS is a little faster than the 12z NAM with the surface low cutting east across Kansas on Monday PM, so if GFS came off severe storms would likely develop across Ern KS/Ern OK rather than across central KS/OK as NAM shows - which would be more ideal from a practical chasing perspective.

Looking at the WRF/NAM FWIW this far off ... at this early stage I would target somewhere like Alva in northern OK, some very moist air (Td of 65F+) beginning to advect into this area, with corresponding large CAPE values, also 0-3km SR Helicity values are very favourable for rotating storms ...

given this very moist air, backing SE winds ahead of low moving ENE, and overlap this with increasingly strong Serly LLJ and strong westerly upper jet ... good potential for tornadoes over N-central OK and S-central KS

Bit worried given the GFS that moist axis from the south will be shunted further east and thus area for severe storms to develop Monday PM will end up further east over the less chaseable terrain of Ern KS and Ern OK, need more runs to firm this up ...

[kold weather]

The good news Nick is the GFS has been overly progressive on just about every event since things kicked in during Late March, as per normal really with the GFS. That being said as you say the GFS may well have it right this time, who knows!

Either way, the set-up has the hallmarks of a possible high risk event, the only slight worry I'd have is the cap at the moment...

[Nick F]

Depends if temps can overcome the CINH, though a cap holing on until early evening is not such a bad thing in that it creates large amounts of CAPE and also produces more discrete but powerful supercells where it is eventually overcome. There is the danger of course that cap may not break until dusk when the S'erly LLJ kicks in and removes any cap and then we have the problem of nocturnal tornadoes! Particularly given the very favourable kinematics for tornadoes on Monday evening.

Anyway, going to be very interesting to follow this. Another problem will be the chaser circus likely to converge on these storms, what with Vortex2 and its myriad of vehicles likely to be on the move and all the chase tours now swinging into action. Chasing gets more popular year on year, what with all the TV programs broadcast like on Discovery etc. Going to be a mad brawl out there!