Model Output Discussion

[Bottesford]

What's to enjoy about today and tomorrow? Mild and mostly cloudy with a bit of hazy sunshine poking through occasionally?

Yeah it's terrible - I've had to force myself not to wear a coat, not to have to put the heating on and be outside a lot more. Today I woke up to a warm house and sadly found it much easier to get up for work instead of wishing to stay in my warm bed. And the very worst bit is having to cycle home through student land and have the ordeal of seeing lots of pretty ladies in short skirts and t-shirts instead of big coats and hats (assuming I can see them at all during the darkness of winter!).

Sarcasm aside... big cooldown coming but I suspect out of the wind and in the sun it'll feel pretty pleasant. High pressure nudging in so I don't see that much rain on offer but some cold nights ahead so time to crank up the heating again!

[Milhouse]

Oh, well. Goodbye to the pleasant mild evenings, for the time being anyway. Next week will see a return to the mostly dry theme after the weekend rain, however i do hope that main area of HP shifts a bit further east.

[Andy Bown]

Could be the first of three poor bank holiday weekends this May to September,

Which model are you basing that thought on?

[Eugene]

http://www2.dmu.dk/a.../dreameu_72.gif - Looks like a hot plume of air coming down to us from the northwest from iceland for this weekend onwards :o

Sorry no it's more volcanic ash

Edited April 28, 2010 by Eugene

[mushymanrob]

lol putting a very brave face on it arent you, GFS 00Z is a terrible run for you i agree

hardly...i mean, its only going to be cool, not exactly a disaster is it for me!

http://www2.dmu.dk/a.../dreameu_72.gif - Looks like a hot plume of air coming down to us from the northwest from iceland for this weekend onwards :o

Sorry no it's more volcanic ash

:o that made me titter!

im not overly concerned about the coming cool spell, in any sun (and i think there will be plenty) itll feel pleasant enough. it doesnt have to be 18c+ to be nice. its the lack of rain thats more of a concern to me, but this looks like being addressed in the next few days.

[Archie_Lewis]

hardly...i mean, its only going to be cool, not exactly a disaster is it for me!

that made me titter!

im not overly concerned about the coming cool spell, in any sun (and i think there will be plenty) itll feel pleasant enough. it doesnt have to be 18c+ to be nice. its the lack of rain thats more of a concern to me, but this looks like being addressed in the next few days.

Lack of Rain?? Oh dear god....

Only the UK would make a song and dance over a few weeks of dry weather. Purlease.

We are an island lashed by the atlantic, im sure we will cope.

[summer blizzard]

Lack of Rain?? Oh dear god....

Only the UK would make a song and dance over a few weeks of dry weather. Purlease.

We are an island lashed by the atlantic, im sure we will cope.

I agree, all we have is a few showery days and one moderately wet day (saturday) forecast, aside from that the outlook is consistently dry from the models.

Biggest overreaction i have ever seen.

[Eugene]

A very cool and very wet sunday now on GFS 12Z then drying up but very cool with northerly winds prevailing and night frost.

[Thundersquall]

I think we're turning the clocks back to January, judging by that chart for Sunday 2nd May 2010.

Afternoon temperatures in region of +5C to +12C (1200) and +4C to +10C (18Z chart)

Despite all the cloud we saw +20C in Bristol - therefore this will be a real and unwelcome shock to the system!

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;page=5;type=free;ct=4215~Bristol;sess=#forecast

Brrr! 8C max at 10am, falling to 5C to 7C during the afternoon - not nice at all with that rain!

Edited April 28, 2010 by Thundersquall

[Eugene]

Winds turning more northeasterly later next week but still only maxs of 10C if that isn't disastrous for mushy i dont know what is oh and night frost too, hes right about the lack of rain though we do need some, well the farmers do.

I dont buy it being completely dry anyway, with northerlies and northeasterlies it can still be showery or overcast with lots of cloud coming down from the north if slightly milder air gets into the mix.

[ANYWEATHER]

OOUUCH!!Anyone fancy a trip up some of our Beautiful Mountains in England, Scotland,and Wales better take there Winter gear with them, temps close to freezing at 2,500 ft and any precip will be WINTRY!! Welcome to May folks!! :whistling:Oh and Ireland!!

Edited April 28, 2010 by ANYWEATHER

[Stormyking]

This would be amazing if it was still January or february or even march or december LOL.

But even though its interesting, but I Just want warmth and thunderstorms now, If anyone is a cold lover then its great to have.

I just hope this cool/cold spell coming up dosen't affect my fishing or bowls but oh well its all part of the fun with weather and model watching.

[damianslaw]

OOUUCH!!Anyone fancy a trip up some of our Beautiful Mountains in England, Scotland,and Wales better take there Winter gear with them, temps close to freezing at 2,500 ft and any precip will be WINTRY!! Welcome to May folks!! :lol: :whistling:Oh and Ireland!!

Indeed its going to be preety cold on the hills this weekend and into next week, with freezing levels dropping to around 700m I imagine, any precipitation will be wintry with some temporary snow cover above about 500-600m I suspect at times especially in Scotland.

Early May is when temp gradients with height are at their most pronounced. A northerly in early May can be every bit as cold as one in Dec on our mountains, thanks to the lag in temps at upper levels.

Longer term - strong heights to our north west for foreseeable future meaning a flow between north west and north east, meaning below average temps so a cold start to May is very much on the cards, quite a typical synoptical pattern for this time of year nothing unusual I have to say.

[TonyH]

Should be pleasant enough here next week, quite sunny and mainly dry, just a touch fresh. Not a bad outlook for Spring by any means.

[mushymanrob]

Lack of Rain?? Oh dear god....

Only the UK would make a song and dance over a few weeks of dry weather. Purlease.

We are an island lashed by the atlantic, im sure we will cope.

I agree, all we have is a few showery days and one moderately wet day (saturday) forecast, aside from that the outlook is consistently dry from the models.

Biggest overreaction i have ever seen.

your perception would be different if your livelyhood depended on grass growing guys, after losing a grand in takings after the coldest winter for thirty years the last thing i want is a drought! no rain = no grass (eventually).

Winds turning more northeasterly later next week but still only maxs of 10C if that isn't disastrous for mushy i dont know what is oh and night frost too, hes right about the lack of rain though we do need some, well the farmers do.

I dont buy it being completely dry anyway, with northerlies and northeasterlies it can still be showery or overcast with lots of cloud coming down from the north if slightly milder air gets into the mix.

pardon me whilst i go and slit my wrists... ILL be the judge of what 'disasterous' is for me thank you! and the current cool outlook isnt.

current runs suggest the coolest may for some considerable time, whilst many mays have had brief cold snaps whats currently progged would certainly push may 2010 towards the record book if the suggested pattern holds... and i doubt its going anywhere fast.

[Frosty.]

That has to be the most shocking GFS 00z run for warm weather fans I have seen in a while, temperatures look depressed from this weekend until the end of the run although i'm sure things will evolve differently in the longer term but the general pattern appears to suggest high pressure out to the west and with low pressure to the northeast and the uk exposed to whatever decides to attack us from between NW & NE.

[cyclonic happiness]

your perception would be different if your livelyhood depended on grass growing guys, after losing a grand in takings after the coldest winter for thirty years the last thing i want is a drought! no rain = no grass (eventually).

pardon me whilst i go and slit my wrists... ILL be the judge of what 'disasterous' is for me thank you! and the current cool outlook isnt.

current runs suggest the coolest may for some considerable time, whilst many mays have had brief cold snaps whats currently progged would certainly push may 2010 towards the record book if the suggested pattern holds... and i doubt its going anywhere fast.

Very stupidly cold looking charts again this morning, i agree we really do need some rain and warmth, the garden centre/nursery industry is suffering too.

But there doesn't look like there's any light at the end of the tunnel yet, the synoptics of the winter are totally refusing to change, bring back global warming, all is forgiven :-)

[Geordiesnow]

Normally i would not mind this sort of set up coming up of a cold shot from the North as it can bring exciting weather in terms of convective showers but this one is looking like a bit of a damp squib.

There will be some rain around but it does not look like it will be in convective form so cloudy, and at times wet and rather cool(or feeling cold even especially on North sea facing coasts) sums it up. The ECM at 96 hours is the only chart i can see which looks like it might bring something more brighter and showery but its fairly short lived.

It certainly will be a change from the recent warm conditions that most of us have experienced.

[Eugene]

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1681.png shocking run so far, this is nust one of the coldest looks charts for May you'll see with cold northeasterlies and LP centred over the nearby continent, with cloud cover/rain and cold 850's some miserable May weather is likely, what a big difference sunday will be compared to this week, the scarfs,coats and even gloves will be back out for spectators at the Manchester United game at sunderland on sunday thats for sure. Edited April 29, 2010 by Eugene

[SP1986]

It does seem, on the latest models outputs anyway, that we're looking at a long-very long spell of unsettled, cool-cold weather. It's going to be interesting to see when 20C pops up again but it may not actually get above 16C in the whole of May (would that be a new record?)

Personally I think what the charts are showing now will define the summer, I can't really see any recovery from a pattern as stubborn as the one that's being shown so it seems a good bet we will get a repeat of something like 2007, but a much colder annual return!

Patterns like this make it easier to forecast long range as they usually stick around for a while, forecasters must be happy therefore with this potential pattern

[Bottesford]

I'm not prepared to write off summer because of charts on 29th April but certainly this pattern can be hard to shift.

But then it only take a subtle shift and everything realigns itself into a much 'better' pattern (like the holy grail of high pressure to our east).

This time next week we may be on about the first heatwave - I live in hope anyway!

[Snowyowl9]

Nice looking May charts in the mid 90`s style,we are overdue a cold spell in May with bonus snow falling(low ground don`t expect much)

Looking cold on sunday to start,maybe cold and wet/sleet maybe.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn781.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn7817.png

Thunder is known with these cold N/NE setups too.

[joggs]

Nice looking May charts in the mid 90`s style,we are overdue a cold spell in May with bonus snow falling(low ground don`t expect much)

Looking cold on sunday to start,maybe cold and wet/sleet maybe.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn781.png

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn7817.png

Thunder is known with these cold N/NE setups too.

What we,d give for these charts in jan

[Eugene]

Yes snowyowl any snow would be restricted to the highest ground, snow to lower levels is hard to achieve in mid to April nevermind early to mid May, some shocking ensembles though for warm weathewr fans, GFS 06Z OP which is a cold run overall wasn't even the coldest run at times

http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

What we,d give for these charts in jan

Strange comment when we had even better looking charts and the coldest January since the incredible 1987 and the coldest UK winter for over 30 years since 1962/63 in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

http://www.wetterzen...00120100101.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00120100105.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00120100106.gif

http://www.wetterzen...00120100110.gif - Yes we had to make do with these instead, how did we cold weather fans cope

Edited April 29, 2010 by Eugene

[mushymanrob]

I'm not prepared to write off summer because of charts on 29th April but certainly this pattern can be hard to shift.

But then it only take a subtle shift and everything realigns itself into a much 'better' pattern (like the holy grail of high pressure to our east).

This time next week we may be on about the first heatwave - I live in hope anyway!

ever the optimist! i dont think anyone really writing off summer just yet, but lets face it, the omens are not good and those of us who were concerned about previous summers patterns in june were proven to have our concerns justified with washout summers.

the 06z isnt so bad, i dare say the 00z was somewhat of an outlier, yes we are in for some cool weather but things might not be as bad as they first appear.