Model Output Discussion

[Thundery wintry showers]

Must say, while the synoptic pattern is reminisent of winter, for the most part next week should be quite dry with sunny spells away from the south east, though at this point next weekend is looking like a washout.

If this was winter, then the easterlies on the GFS is certainly over exergerated and what the UKMO is showing would be closer to the norm, it normally is in these situations and i won't be surprised if the UKMO is right again.

At the moment, the outlook looks like a fairly cloudy one and a cool one with the winds coming from the north-north easterly direction.

Two posts with opposing statements, and here I agree more with Geordiesnow. The high will be too far west to prevent large amounts of cloud toppling around its eastern periphery- these anticyclonic/north-easterly regimes often see a good deal of cloud, an extreme case being the first third of May 1991. I also agree that UKMO is more likely to be nearer the mark than GFS.

Once again ECMWF hints at a transition towards a bright showery northerly type out towards T+168, so ECM is sticking to its guns in much the way that GFS is. Whatever happens, though, temperatures look like being below average for a while with the air regularly coming down from relatively high latitudes.

[Milhouse]

Signs from both the ECM and GFS12z for low pressure to stall out to the west at around 240h. This would maintain the unsettled theme but it would become increasingly warm. Something to keep an eye on. In the meantime temperatures will still be reaching respectable levels for early may on Tuesday and Wednesday. So its certainly not all doom and gloom as some would have you believe.

[phil nw.]

theres plenty of heights to our northern quadrant throughout many runs.

In fairness Rob i did say on my previous post that i was refering to the short term and i posted a link to T96hrs. chart to show this.

Indeed even todays T96hrs chart is similar-a mid latitude high,

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm961.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn961.png

Later on in some charts there`s pointers to the Mid-Latitude high regressing North West but the jet still runs over the top.

Perhaps i am being a bit picky but I always think of true northern blocking as heights building south from above the uk with a southerly tracking jet.

[mushymanrob]

In fairness Rob i did say on my previous post that i was refering to the short term and i posted a link to T96hrs. chart to show this.

fair play phil, i stand corrected

more uninspiring charts to view, nothing exciting with plenty of below average weather on offer from the northeast generally.

[MP-R]

Not a very inspiring run again this morning, looking rather chilly for much of next week as even with sunshine the isobars indicate quite a prevalent NE wind.

Too far away from the high to get sunshine and too far west to be in the full northeasterly with some showers though nowhere near as wet as it was showing yesterday. France will get a direct hit from that:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

Way out in FI this one but signs of a pattern change with a high trying to move up from the southwest but the UK stays on the northeastern side of it before it flattens with a more westerly pattern taking hold thereafter.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3241.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3721.png

So to sum up, I think a week of sunny intervals, temperatures typically between 12-16C by day with chilly nights and a nagging northeasterly wind - seems to be the legacy of this year so far.

[Eugene]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Prolonged below average temps looking increasingly likely, a very gradual rise in temps towards the end and i do mean very gradual

[Eugene]

Perhaps i am being a bit picky but I always think of true northern blocking as heights building south from above the uk with a southerly tracking jet.

LOL, well i don't think you'll be so picky this morning, some shocking runs synoptically for May, they would be a dream for winter and i mean an absolute dream with extensive northerly blocking and i do mean extensive unfortunately just cool overcast drizzly rubbish in May.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

LOL, well i don't think you'll be so picky this morning, some shocking runs synoptically for May, they would be a dream for winter and i mean an absolute dream with extensive northerly blocking and i do mean extensive unfortunately just cool overcast drizzly rubbish in May.

The weather here is positively benign compared to what a lot of poor people in the states of Arkansas and Tennesse and others are suffering atm (PS - I am putting aside the excitement of storm chasing before I get jumped on). Towns flattened, homes and businesses destroyed, fatalities and injuries, and large areas under several feet of floodwaters means that 'cool overcast drizzly rubbish' seems like paradise to me!

Blocking to the north is very common in the Springtime. There is nothing shocking about the pattern at all - nice as some sunshine would be instead of drizzle and cloud.

Edited May 2, 2010 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Derp Patrol]

Well I've been sitting down inside all day because the weather outside is absolutely terrible! It's been raining non stop for a while and it feels freezing, only just reaching double figures. Today's max here of just 10C is the coldest May day here since 2007.

After today though, signs are for a small improvement. This week and in particular Wednesday look like having increasingly sunny and dry spells in England, and temperatures should recover a bit, albeit still cool for the time of year. 13-16C in south eastern and south western areas, and 11-13C for the midlands. Some very cool nights as well, still only 5-6C.

[frostyjoe]

Well I've been sitting down inside all day because the weather outside is absolutely terrible! It's been raining non stop for a while and it feels freezing, only just reaching double figures. Today's max here of just 10C is the coldest May day here since 2007.

After today though, signs are for a small improvement. This week and in particular Wednesday look like having increasingly sunny and dry spells in England, and temperatures should recover a bit, albeit still cool for the time of year. 13-16C in south eastern and south western areas, and 11-13C for the midlands. Some very cool nights as well, still only 5-6C.

lol, you people in london can't cope with 10c!!! Come on its not that bad, it was only about 6 weeks when we had around 2c maxes!!

[Derp Patrol]

We haven't had 2C maxes since January lol. It's more of a shock to the system, from having a few weeks of average to above average maxima in the high teens and then today with a biting northerly with lashing rain. It feels more like late February outside..

[TonyH]

lol, you people in london can't cope with 10c!!! Come on its not that bad, it was only about 6 weeks when we had around 2c maxes!!

Quite. It is only the first week of May so maxima around 10c or so are still expected. Any sunshine and out of the breeze and it feels fine to be out. Max 13c here today although cooler and cloudier around 11c much of this afternoon.

Still looks fairly dry and bright in the south and west this week 11-15c maxima.

[Cheese Rice]

The worst GFS run I have seen in a long time, those wanting warm had better hibernate for the next 2 weeks. I wouldn't mind if it was sunny but below average temp, biting easterly winds and constant drizzle, no thanks.

After today though, signs are for a small improvement. This week and in particular Wednesday look like having increasingly sunny and dry spells in England, and temperatures should recover a bit, albeit still cool for the time of year. 13-16C in south eastern and south western areas, and 11-13C for the midlands. Some very cool nights as well, still only 5-6C.

I think you are been slightly optomisitc, I cant really see highs of 13-16.c, probably 11-12.c for the south and only a few degrees cooler further north.

Edited May 2, 2010 by 10123

[Geordiesnow]

Must admit, maybe i was wrong to dismiss the GFS regarding the easterly, looks like(unfortunately) we will see winds from the east next week which often means alot of cloud and sunshine very much at a premeium, SW Scotland may be a favoured spot aswell as Western parts of Ireland.

Be interesting too see if the easterly does weaken or get shifted to the south like what happened at times during the winter gone, the GFS is normally the first to pick this up i seem to recall.

[Derp Patrol]

The worst GFS run I have seen in a long time, those wanting warm had better hibernate for the next 2 weeks. I wouldn't mind if it was sunny but below average temp, biting easterly winds and constant drizzle, no thanks.

I think you are been slightly optomisitc, I cant really see highs of 13-16.c, probably 11-12.c for the south and only a few degrees cooler further north.

It was based on if there was sunshine, which it looks like there will be. The GFS has been overestimating the impact of the northerly flow on temperatures, today it predicted 2C below the actual temperature, and it tends to under do temperatures a bit. If it stays cloudy with no sun then I would agree that 11-12C is the best to hope for.

[Ben_Cambs]

Well, I already think this is defiently going to be a below CET May from the current synoptics across all the models! Northern blocking looks like it will have a big impact on our weather this coming May. I think the trend for the first third of May has been set. A mid-Atlantic high will temporarily retrograde eastwards towards the UK, but then North-westwards, allowing a cool slack North-Easterly/Easterly flow to develop, possibly turning Northerly at times. Temperatures will probably be slightly to below average. Rainfall amounts look likely to be slightly to below average.

One thing I've been thinking is whether the pattern of the first 4 months maybe resetting itself? Just a thought.

[Snowyowl9]

Must admit, maybe i was wrong to dismiss the GFS regarding the easterly, looks like(unfortunately) we will see winds from the east next week which often means alot of cloud and sunshine very much at a premeium, SW Scotland may be a favoured spot aswell as Western parts of Ireland.

Be interesting too see if the easterly does weaken or get shifted to the south like what happened at times during the winter gone, the GFS is normally the first to pick this up i seem to recall.

Looks like your fave wind direction will be here to stay for quite while,but this is a NE-ly not easterly(which I`d rather see in May E to SE-ly)Or a N/NW-ly,seems to be a very happening wind direction this year NE,and thats since January,every month so far!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

[conor123]

There's no redeeming qualities about tonights charts, northern blocking showing no signs of shifting with plenty of cool grey weather with skies only clearing at night to give unseasonably cold temperatures.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Certainly another cool/cold update from the GFS with high pressure mostly situated to the West of the United Kingdom and lower pressure to the East allowing a Northerly or North-Easterly wind flow. It looks like eventually the high pressure to the West will shift (retrogress?) a little more Northwards with deeper lower pressure trying to spill in from the South-East. A mostly unsettled outlook, but with a good chance of drier periods between the wet weather.

[cyclonic happiness]

Oh dear , oh dear!

There seems to be no light still at the end of this tunnel, and even though someone must have said it before, we'd have killed for these synoptics in any other winter but now it's spring ....meh!

I cannot see an end anywhere tbh, no doubt something will snap.

[TonyH]

Coming into the model thread lately you would be excused for thinking the end of the World is nigh!

In reality it is a spell of benign if chilly late Spring weather- at least here.

Beautiful this morning here- sunny after an early ground frost. Heatwaves are after all a rarity in early May!

Still dont understand why GFS is held in such great esteem, it almost always models temperatures too low. Surely this mostly dry and bright weather is better than some the horror stuff we have experienced at the height of Summer in recent years?

Edited May 3, 2010 by Tonyh

[Weather-history]

How many times have we seen these synoptics since mid December?

16th December 2009

5th January 2010

9th February 2010

28th March 2010

20th April 2010

Edited May 3, 2010 by Mr_Data

[johnholmes]

How many times have we seen these synoptics since mid December?

thanks Kevin for reminding us.

Much as the jet went on a long holiday, still away it seems, and its got 'our' spring with it.

I do so hope it gives us back our summer before winter starts again!

[Milhouse]

Looking on the bright side these sort of charts have been repeated at some point in several Mays gone by, and were often followed by decent summers. 1995 being the most obvious comparison. As for what lies ahead for the rest of the month surely by the law of averages the 2nd half of the month will see an improvement. At the moment the models are looking very poor, verging on diabolical.

[Tom D]

I think some people need to be reminded of the beautiful April we've just had... cannot recall such a dry month here with so much sunshine.