Sea Surface Temperatures

[summer blizzard]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

Seems to have been a weakening of the -PDO in the Pacific although El Nino seems to limited in how far west it can travel.

Atlantic looks like supporting the pattern we have for a while yet with an Atlantic ridge and Scandinavian Trough.

[BornFromTheVoid]

SSTA animation since January 1st

Interesting to see the transition from La Nina to the beginning of the next El Nino.

[Gray-Wolf]

Seeing as we are now exiting the time hardest for prediction i think June's forecast will show how strong the coming Nino might be. Seeing as the last 'moderate' one lead to global temp spikes that near rivaled the 'old' super Nino this might prove interesting/

If we have a moderate 'Nino' that rivals (in temp) the 98' event it will say a lot about our changing climate

[Village]

Even more interesting is that virtually the whole of our region of the world has seen the SST's fall down to become well into the negative. Even most of the Mediteranean and I can vouch for that because I went for a swim in it yesterday and it was absolutely freezing....no more than the low teens.

[summer blizzard]

Fairly strong signal for blocking over the USA and Atlantic which would likely mean a trough over the UK, so basically no change.

[Harve]

Even more interesting is that virtually the whole of our region of the world has seen the SST's fall down to become well into the negative. Even most of the Mediteranean and I can vouch for that because I went for a swim in it yesterday and it was absolutely freezing....no more than the low teens.

You can't "vouch for most of the Mediterranean". Temperatures on the coast sometimes don't reflect actual sea surface temperatures. I remember the sea being rather baltic off the coast of south-eastern Ireland in July 2010 - it had apparently been rather warm a few days before and was prone to fluctuations. Out in the sea, you can see that large anomalies take a few weeks to form or disappear.

However in this case there is a reflection.

[Coast]

Well, here is the SST for the Mediterranean today, possibly not a great deal different from yesterday:

http://gnoo.bo.ingv....icators/SST.htm

10-May-2012 Sea surface Temperature

mean: 19.11 °C

max: 23.66 °C

min: 15.03 °C

Here is the Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature [°C] basin mean evolution since 1999:

[Village]

You can't "vouch for most of the Mediterranean". Temperatures on the coast sometimes don't reflect actual sea surface temperatures. I remember the sea being rather baltic off the coast of south-eastern Ireland in July 2010 - it had apparently been rather warm a few days before and was prone to fluctuations. Out in the sea, you can see that large anomalies take a few weeks to form or disappear.

However in this case there is a reflection.

Yes, you are right in what you say. Rider on the Storm has posted the latest map above and it confirms that the whole of the northwest of the Med is below average, as is Biscay and the Atlantic where we are. I swam in the sea near Barcelona so I had inadvertently picked the coldest place!

[BornFromTheVoid]

The latest SSTs, from January 1st to June 3rd.

It's 3.7mb so it may take a few moments to load...

Edited June 4, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[summer blizzard]

Pretty good triplole pattern right now, West Pacific looks cool as well.

[Village]

Is it just me or does that chart clearly show a global cooling ano,mally taking place? It seems to be cooler almost planet wide with the exception of El Nino.

[Evening thunder]

Looks roughly equal amounts of above/below average to me, it would be interesting to know what reference period those charts use for their anomalies.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just remember, the images I used for the animation have 0C to +1C as light blue, making the SSTs look below average, when there actually slightly above.

The difference can be seen in these 2 charts, showing exactly the same temperatures but with different colour scales. The old having 0C to +1C as light blue and 0C to -1C as darker blue, and the new having 0C to +1C as yellow and 0C to -1C as blue.

Old

New

Unfortunately the archive data only uses the old colour scale, which is why I use it for the animations.

[Weather-history]

The latest SSTs, from January 1st to June 3rd.

It's 3.7mb so it may take a few moments to load...

Anyone notice that cold pool between Iceland and Norway since the start of the year?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Anyone notice that cold pool between Iceland and Norway since the start of the year?

Anomalous surface northerly winds through that area, especially since the beginning of April when the -ve anoms really deepened.

[Weather-history]

From accuweather

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/what-to-blame-the-heatwave-on-el-nino-global-warming/67799

[BornFromTheVoid]

SSTAs in newly developing El NIno showing +3C for the first time since I've been following at least.

The -ve PDO has been weakening quite quickly over the last 6 weeks also, from having anomalies lower than -6C to no lower than just -3.5C now.

The most stand out thing for me are the large +ve anomalies around the Arctic. The warm waters in the Beaufort sea (N of Alaska and Western Arctic Canada), the warm waters surrounding Greenland, and then to a lesser extent, the +ve SSTAs developing in the Barents sea and around the Bering strait. These may have significant effects of the N. Hemisphere weather when the latent heat is released during Autumn this year.

[Cheshire Freeze]

SSTAs in newly developing El NIno showing +3C for the first time since I've been following at least.

The -ve PDO has been weakening quite quickly over the last 6 weeks also, from having anomalies lower than -6C to no lower than just -3.5C now.

The most stand out thing for me are the large +ve anomalies around the Arctic. The warm waters in the Beaufort sea (N of Alaska and Western Arctic Canada), the warm waters surrounding Greenland, and then to a lesser extent, the +ve SSTAs developing in the Barents sea and around the Bering strait. These may have significant effects of the N. Hemisphere weather when the latent heat is released during Autumn this year.

Certainly an interesting set up at the minute in terms of ssts. I'm no expert in this field,so, how do you think the current sst pattern will influence the atmosphere during autumn?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Certainly an interesting set up at the minute in terms of ssts. I'm no expert in this field,so, how do you think the current sst pattern will influence the atmosphere during autumn?

Just based on that paper from before with regards sea ice loss reducing the thermal/thickness gradient from the tropics to the Arctic and then slowing down in the jetstream.

Some of those +ve SST anomalies in the Arctic are now up to +8C. When that heat gets released between September and November as the sea ice forms, it seems likely there'll be some very large +ve air temperature anomalies across the Arctic with an increase in the atmospheric thickness values and a reduction in the thickness gradient and thus a slower more meandering jet stream than normal.

Could encourage some very "stuck" weather patterns during Autumn, whether we find ourselves stuck in a trough or ridge remains to be seen though.

Some other factors could of course over-ride this, but those +ve SSTA can't remain through the Autumn and Winter, so the heat has to go somewhere so I'm sure it will have some effect.

[mountain shadow]

I would have thought that the warmer temperature anomalies around Greenland when interacting with the quickly cooling Greenland plateau will make for a stormy picture in the Atlantic.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I would have thought that the warmer temperature anomalies around Greenland when interacting with the quickly cooling Greenland plateau will make for a stormy picture in the Atlantic.

I've heard different things. Some say it promotes a high latitude block?

[summer blizzard]

Warm air advection over Greenland supports an upper high, hence whilst initially it may support troughing the feedback mechanisms mean that is good in the long run.

[Evening thunder]

Looking at the SST charts, I've wondered before do the anomalies we sometimes see like those around Greenland now effect atmospheric patterns more than ENSO, as they certainly appear more striking. Or is El Nino/La Nina in a strategic place that means it effects some important drivers of global climate more? Though I suspect the answer is not so clear cut.

If those anomalies around Greenland were around the UK in summer, We'd be having SST's over 20C in the south!

[summer blizzard]

Looking at the SST charts, I've wondered before do the anomalies we sometimes see like those around Greenland now effect atmospheric patterns more than ENSO, as they certainly appear more striking. Or is El Nino/La Nina in a strategic place that means it effects some important drivers of global climate more? Though I suspect the answer is not so clear cut.

If those anomalies around Greenland were around the UK in summer, We'd be having SST's over 20C in the south!

They certainly have a large impact on our side of the globe however the waters in the equatorial region tend to have the largest effect due to the placement of certain features (Himalayas, Rocky mountains).

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks like El Nino may already be running out of steam. Those warm anomalies dropping from over +3C, to +2C in the last month, and becoming much more patchy.

Plenty of other items of interest about too. Strong -ve PDO remains in place and +ve anomalies spreading further across the N. Atlantic.