Sea Surface Temperatures

[Summer Sun]

Seems possible. If it did come off, depending on how quickly it engaged with the atmosphere, we could well feel the effects during the latter half of Winter.

 

Best keep an eye on things, see if rapid warming begins http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssn&inv=0&t=cur

 

What could the effects be? cold?

[BornFromTheVoid]

What could the effects be? cold?

 

Couldn't say. Depends on what the other teleconnections are up to at the time and how ENSO interacts with them.

Having ENSO transition from -ve to +ve during winter would be yet another headache for long range forecasters though.

[Summer Sun]

Couldn't say. Depends on what the other teleconnections are up to at the time and how ENSO interacts with them.

Having ENSO transition from -ve to +ve during winter would be yet another headache for long range forecasters though.

 

Thanks for the reply

 

[UV-RAY]

Couldn't say. Depends on what the other teleconnections are up to at the time and how ENSO interacts with them.

Having ENSO transition from -ve to +ve during winter would be yet another headache for long range forecasters though.

It could be very close as temp after to go above 0.5c to be classed as an official nino and judging by that graph you posted, we would just be at that level.

Edited October 13, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Recretos]

This is a very cool topic (no pun intended), so I decided to share a few words and graphics.

 

First of, the N Atlantic SSTs on 12.10.13 00z. Taken by NOAA/NESDIS geo-polar orbiter with 5km horizontal resolution. The Atlantic is still running quite warm, with positive anomalies, slightly variying from year to year, but keeping the general trend of the positive phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO).

 

 

Just to the SW, the gulf stream looking warm and healthy, connecting with the positive AMO.

 

  

 

Now for the global image. The first things that stand out are of course the warm Atlantic, cold PDO off the W USA coast, and the cold biased neutral ENSO regions. The main two players, PDO and AMO are generally staying in their respective phases over the last years, with ENSO having more colder biases than warmer, due to the cold PDO above. Too bad the USA government is in shut-down, because I could make some nice reanalysis about it, but oh well I shall work with what ever I have at the moment.

 

 

 

Now compared with the CFSv2 forecast. CFS was quite "on par" with the reality, which was kinda expected from the latest model runs. The PDO could be colder, and there is the warmer main ENSO region. 

 

As we all know by now, CFS is also forecasting a weak to moderate El Nino well into summer, while the general consensus of the climate models is more in favour of a neutral phase, with a slight possibility for an El Nino by summer. But that is too late in the forecast to have any significance just yet. The CFS kinda rushes the ENSO into the warmer phase, while I am a bit sceptical about such a fast warmup, but of course it is possible. 

 

  

 

When looking at CFS geo-potential anomaly forecasts, to me it looks like it is trending more towards an overall positive AAM (Atmospheric Angular Momentum) feeling, semi-explaining the forecasted El Nino, since ENSO is basically much more sensitive to AAM than vice-versa (a huge simplification  ).

 

 

 

What is interesting, is the UK-Met forecast. Their ENSO forecast keeps it under as a weak La Nina, while the 500z anomaly forecast look more El Nino-ish. I guess they are aiming for at least one verified forecast. 

 

 

 

Now to go away from the future and into history. Last year around this time, the PDO was more defined, north Atlantic locally warmer (while this year we are generally warmer in the Atlantic) and the warm biased neutral ENSO going soon into a cold-neutral transition. (Note: Extreme anomalies at the poles are not realistic. That is just unreliable data because of the ice cover. )

 

 

 

This would be all for now. As usually, I tried to write in a user-friendly style, so I hope that most (if not all) of the text is understandable.

Best regards.

[cooling climate]

There looks to be more of a -NAO tripole pattern starting to slowly emerge

in the north Atlantic.

It is quite obvious looking at the sst anomaly in the north Atlantic how the

up coming storm developed along a strong baroclinic line with warm waters

to the west of the UK.

Ripe for cyclogenesis

[Cheshire Freeze]

There looks to be more of a -NAO tripole pattern starting to slowly emerge

in the north Atlantic.

It is quite obvious looking at the sst anomaly in the north Atlantic how the

up coming storm developed along a strong baroclinic line with warm waters

to the west of the UK.

Ripe for cyclogenesis

sst_anom today.gif

 

Yep, warm-cold-warm banding starting to re-emerge.

[UV-RAY]

Those cold waters have expanded from the last update.

[summer blizzard]

There looks to be more of a -NAO tripole pattern starting to slowly emerge

in the north Atlantic.

It is quite obvious looking at the sst anomaly in the north Atlantic how the

up coming storm developed along a strong baroclinic line with warm waters

to the west of the UK.

Ripe for cyclogenesis

sst_anom today.gif

 

Agreed. The -PDO signature looks better as well.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Guys!

 

We're told most of the current planetary energy imbalance is going into the ocean. With the splurge of recent Nina's does this mean that the ENSO region is amassing heat? In the Atlantic basin will the lack of major 'Canes this season have also lead to heat remaining trapped in the ocean? Does this hold implications for the upcoming winter? Will we see a far more mobile Atlantic and so see less 'quiet', cold, periods here in the UK? For me I see Oct is nearly out and yet this a.m. was the first real 'cool' morning with quite a warm Oct for the rest of the time (only put the hammock to bed last week!).

[summer blizzard]

A well defined Atlantic tripole pattern at the moment which would ordinarily suggest a blocked Atlantic, unfortunately it does seem that the AO is overriding that.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The PDO is looking the most neutral/positive in quite a while. That warm anomaly in the central Pacific has drifted towards the North American west coast, almost getting rid of the reverse "C" of cold anomalies entirely. 

 

............. Typical -ve PDO ............... ............... Current SST Anomalies

 

It will be interesting to see how things develop. Although the models haven't been doing great recently, they've become increasingly bullish about an El Nino developing this year. But while the -ve PDO hangs on, El Nino development will be difficult.

[Lettucing Gutted]

A well defined Atlantic tripole pattern at the moment which would ordinarily suggest a blocked Atlantic, unfortunately it does seem that the AO is overriding that.

That +AO is a pest.  That combined with the new +PDO phase means everything is set for the year without a winter.  So much for last years Arctic Ice recovery...

Edited February 2, 2014 by Craig Evans

[Gray-Wolf]

The PDO is looking the most neutral/positive in quite a while. That warm anomaly in the central Pacific has drifted towards the North American west coast, almost getting rid of the reverse "C" of cold anomalies entirely. 

 

............. Typical -ve PDO ............... ............... Current SST Anomalies

 

It will be interesting to see how things develop. Although the models haven't been doing great recently, they've become increasingly bullish about an El Nino developing this year. But while the -ve PDO hangs on, El Nino development will be difficult.

 

 

I've been looking at the PDO index monthly numbers and I would not be surprised to see another few months of positive figures popping up as we go into spring?

 

The PDO as a whole seems to be 'milding out' and if you look at the numbers back into the last century, esp. the PDO-ve values, they do not seem to go as low as we used to see?

 

As such I think we are starting to see far more periods of a kind of PDO neutral? If this is true then the onset of this PDO-ve becomes very difficult to pin down? Were it not for the Super Nino of 98' we may well have been looking at a low grade PDO-ve for a lot of the nineties?

 

I personally believe that the 'cold core' of this PDO-ve phase has now passed ( 98 to 2012) and so the next period will be a kind of 'neutral' period which will not favour Nino or Nina? That said the research pointing toward Super nino spacing's moving from every 20 years to every 10 years also appears to be an ongoing thing with only 15 years between the last two 'Supers'? Seeing as 98's 'Super' was 16 years ago we not only seem to be overdue a Nino  of normal duration ( 18 months?) but also a 'super Nino' event???

 

When you look at the depth that carried heat enough to fuel a Typhoon that Haiyan traveled over I have to wonder just how much heat is in the warm pool massed on the western side of the Pacific? Are we looking at a pool of warmth easily able to fuel a super Nino? The Dutch Uni that is trying out long range ENSO predictions is also calling for a 'large' El Nino event this, and next, year ( large being length and not intensity?).

 

I kind of think we will see a lot of denial of the PDO flip though? I guess we'll hear a lot of the " you always see positive blips in a negative phase.... look at the early noughties...."

[bluearmy]

the area between newfoundland and s greenland sees a continued warm sst anomoly together with very low thicknesses. If you want to see snow, i suggest that could be a good spot to row out to!

[summer blizzard]

Should be an interesting watch as Nino comes to the surface.

[knocker]

Current

Edited April 5, 2014 by knocker

[summer blizzard]

 

A tonne of high latitude warmth and an abnormally cool Atlantic.

[Lettucing Gutted]

 

A tonne of high latitude warmth and an abnormally cool Atlantic.

That setup has a range of both good and bad points for winter and cold fans.

 

Good Points:-

-The warm pool around Labrador and Greenland would aid in Greenland and High Mid Latitude North Atlantic Blocking and a Negative Arctic Oscillation Phase (AO) and a Negative North Atlantic Oscillation Phase (NAO) and a Southerly Tracking Jetstream.

-The warm pool in the Extra-Tropical Northwest Pacific would likewise aid in Bering Sea Blocking and a Negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation Phase (PDO) and a Positive Pacific North America Pattern Phase (PNA), -AO, -NAO and a Southerly Tracking Jetstream.

-The Tropical Pacific looks like a mixture of both weak La Nina cool pools and weak El Nino warm pools which means there should be less deep Tropical Pacific forcing on the Jetstream to go north with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phase being near neutral which also aids in a -PDO, +PNA, -AO and -NAO.

-The cold pool in the Mid Subtropical North Atlantic allied to the above Blocking will aid in a -AO, -NAO and a Southerly Tracking Jetstream.

 

Bad Points:-

-The warm pool off the Eastern Seaboard of Newfoundland and USA will aid in a -PNA, +AO, +NAO and a Northerly Tracking Jetstream.

-The warm pool in the Extra-Tropical Northeast Pacific will aid in a +PDO, -PNA, +AO, +NAO and a Northerly Tracking Jetstream.

-The warm pool in the High Latitude Northeast Atlantic will aid in a +AO, +NAO and a Northerly Tracking Jetstream via a Euro and Scandi Ridge.  This warm pool will also heavily modify any Northerly Blasts crossing it decreasing their potency and increasing marginality of any snow events.

Edited August 13, 2014 by Craig Evans

[Blessed Weather]

Global Analysis Report for August 2014 issued by NOAA states:

 

.....the August global sea surface temperature was 0.65°C (1.17°F) above the 20^th century average of 16.4°C (61.4°F). This record high departure from average not only beats the previous August record set in 2005 by 0.08°C (0.14°F), but also beats the previous all-time record set just two months ago in June 2014 by 0.03°C (0.05°F).

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/8

[Froze were the Days]

See the area off the Alaska/Canada coast isn't as positive an anomaly as it was a few weeks back but certainly large in extent of warm Pacific off the west coast of the States (which was completely the opposite when we had the series of cold winters a few years back).

 

Also interesting how the north of the Baltic sea has become really quite cold compared to the very positive anomalies a couple of months back.

[Blessed Weather]

Report published on the BBC News website today 5th Oct 2014:

 

The deeper half of the ocean did not get measurably warmer in the last decade, but surface layers have been warming faster than we thought since the 1970s, two new studies suggest.

Because the sea absorbs 90% of the heat caused by human activity, its warmth is a central concern in climate science.  .....Dr Zika added that the heat content of shallow layers is a particular concern, as that warmth is more likely to return to the atmosphere. "If it were getting really deep down, then we might think that it's basically stuck there," he said.

 

Full story: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-29474646

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

Report published on the BBC News website today 5th Oct 2014:

 

The deeper half of the ocean did not get measurably warmer in the last decade, but surface layers have been warming faster than we thought since the 1970s, two new studies suggest.

Because the sea absorbs 90% of the heat caused by human activity, its warmth is a central concern in climate science.  .....Dr Zika added that the heat content of shallow layers is a particular concern, as that warmth is more likely to return to the atmosphere. "If it were getting really deep down, then we might think that it's basically stuck there," he said.

Blessed Weather....

The above is a good find and needs to go into the climate discussion...

Can you find the url and place it in the climate chnge evidence and reasons thread?

MIA

 

Full story: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-29474646

 

[cyclonic happiness]

How come not much is being said about all the cold water anomalies in the Northern hemisphere? 

 

Surely it's going limit the amount of energy and temperature differentials, which fueled last winters' record breaking storms?

 

Looks almost the opposite to me.....any thoughts? 

[jonboy]

 

How come not much is being said about all the cold water anomalies in the Northern hemisphere? 

 

Surely it's going limit the amount of energy and temperature differentials, which fueled last winters' record breaking storms?

 

Looks almost the opposite to me.....any thoughts?

 

Most likely lack of comment is because it doesn't fit in with the general dogma that the oceans are warming

I do agree that with these colder anomalies it is less likely that we will see the same intense storms coming off the atlantic this winter and what is likely they will be more southerly as well.