Convective Outlook

[TheToastPeople]

Hey im new here but ive been following this topic all day and just heard 2 claps of thunder in Bedforshire

[Mesoscale]

well....it's gonna be a late nighter for me! it's 25C here in chatham atm! temp has hardly dropped at all

same with me its still 26C here.

very muggy, im cooking dinner and just had a shower so im feeling better but lets hope for tonight ay loopydreamer!

[Wilxy]

dew point here is 6! is that too low!

Yes but id expect that to soar soon as the storms move in.

[Lewis]

threads gone quiet now, they was over 120 viewers about an hour or so ago, either its not looking good for many people, or they have all gone to watch the BGT final lol.

Hammering it down in East Hull

[Paul]

Lightning strikes being detected in the cells to the north of London now:

Strikestar detector:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess=

[Winter Warmer]

i have just been sat in the garden and i dont know what the temp is but it seems to have cooled down afair bit

[Lewis]

Lightning strikes being detected in the cells to the north of London now:

Strikestar detector:

http://www.netweathe...3f38e5809c606ea

Cheers Paul,

seems all is lost here. very dissapointing again, its only early days (start of June) i normally do well every year, but this year has been a very slow start, even a few weeks ago and other times they has been vast potential but storms have just failed to materialize.

regards

pacman

[A.J]

Would think any thunderstorms that do develop would be elevated as surfaced-based convection wanes after sunset. Going on model output, there is still a risk of heavy showers and isolated thunderstorm/s across parts of the Midlands further on into this evening and into Sunday- the chance of these occuring more likely over north-east Midlands.

Dead for the West Midlands for the time being....No surface energy, no lift & no steep lapse temp drop off....However that cluster of storms/showers over north west Biscay has caught my eye...At the moment, it looks like it may well run up the western side of England overnight....I'm assuming that the forecasted Meso-system to affect SE parts will be spawned from that weak CF straddling Western France??

[Ian Fergusson]

3 Lightning strikes have been detected within the irish sea, about 20 miles from the coast of wales.

No percip has been detected in the area of these strikes

Hmmmm.... I suspect spuriously? Recorded on what system / site, out of interest? The ATDNet system we use via UKMO tends to be very accurate (to within 1km or so). It shows the only SFERICS south of Scotland within the past 25 mins from a cell just north of Elsham, west of the A15 south of the Humber (none in past 10 mins); and currently (actively so) from just north of Brogborough, Beds, (near Milton Keynes) and a tad north of there overhead Cranfield, Beds.....

[Paul]

Things are about as were forecast at this point, it was always going to be a case of fairly well scattered showers with some storm activity possible this pm, with the biggest threat of some real storm action moving up from the south later.

Btw, for those who subscribe to nw extra or lite, I've just set the lightning detector to update every 2 minutes (was 5 minutes), this is a bit of an experiment so not certain to continue, but available to use tonight at the very least:

http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=lightning;sess=

[Craigers]

well looks like its all quiet now! weird! getting a cool easterly breeze now!

[Snowangel-MK]

Just had a very heavy shower of rain with a couple of rumbles of thunder !!

Temp: 22.9 °C

Scattered Clouds

　

Humidity:

38%

Dew Point:

8 °C

Wind:

Calm

Wind Gust:

12.9 km/h

Pressure:

1013.8 hPa (Falling)

[dogs32]

Things are about as were forecast at this point, it was always going to be a case of fairly well scattered showers with some storm activity possible this pm, with the biggest threat of some real storm action moving up from the south later.

Btw, for those who subscribe to nw extra or lite, I've just set the lightning detector to update every 2 minutes (was 5 minutes), this is a bit of an experiment so not certain to continue, but available to use tonight at the very least:

http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=lightning;sess=

nice one!!

will be handy this summer when things realy kick off

If its a success maybe full time

If there are any decent Vil's this Summer that is

Edited June 5, 2010 by dogs32

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Getting pretty dark here - radar shows showers approaching from the SE. Just got back froom swimming - it's cooler out there but still feels close and there's that feel of something about to happen...

Edited June 5, 2010 by chrisbell0033944

[Stuart]

Lightning strikes getting pick up on the lightning detector to the south of me on net weather but my storm unit not picking any Lightning up

[Noctilucid]

well....it's gonna be a late nighter for me! it's 25C here in chatham atm! temp has hardly dropped at all

Looks more like an early morning than a late nighter to me.

Morning thunderstorms, haven't had them in a while.

[Ian Fergusson]

Lightning strikes getting pick up on the lightning detector to the south of me on net weather but my storm unit not picking any Lightning up

I suspect it's picking up the former flashes near the Humber (i.e., southwards of you) as there's nothing between there and you. Next nearest TS in last 25 mins north of you has delivered (very little) lightning overhead Prestonpans and Whitecraig, east of Edinburgh.

[Costa Del Fal]

I suspect it's picking up the former flashes near the Humber (i.e., southwards of you) as there's nothing between there and you. Next nearest TS in last 25 mins north of you has delivered (very little) lightning overhead Prestonpans and Whitecraig, east of Edinburgh.

Hi Ian, any points of interest do you think so far for us in the West this evening that is developing etc or will it probably stay as it is that being dry with very isolated showers at best? Thanks.

Edited June 5, 2010 by Blizzards

[StormChaseUK]

Caught the odd rumble of thunder, as the heavy but shallow showers moved north east over Aston Clinton

[Summer of 76]

Hmmmm.... I suspect spuriously? Recorded on what system / site, out of interest? The ATDNet system we use via UKMO tends to be very accurate (to within 1km or so). It shows the only SFERICS south of Scotland within the past 25 mins from a cell just north of Elsham, west of the A15 south of the Humber (none in past 10 mins); and currently (actively so) from just north of Brogborough, Beds, (near Milton Keynes) and a tad north of there overhead Cranfield, Beds.....

Ian,

Can confirm that was spot on as had a couple of rumbles of thunder as it moved over Bedford.

regards

Chris

[Supacell]

Advice needed. Are storms looking likely for Lincs and E Yorks this evening, or am i sitting out here for nothing?

It seems to have gone very quiet, albeit cloudy.

[Ian Fergusson]

Hi Ian, any points of interest do you think so far for us in the West this evening that is developing etc or will it probably stay as it is that being dry with very isolated showers at best? Thanks.

Well, I was just reading the latest briefing from the Chief F/C at Ops Centre and viewing his modified NAE graphics.... the thrust of things remains distinctly easterly for tonight in those areas previously discussed on this forum, as the upper trough arrives tonight across the SW (and it still hasn't arrived, in case people were getting vexed)..... signal for some heavy rain and showers into various parts of the west tomorrow however, but low confidence remains a key point of emphasis in terms of spatial / temporal detail.

The general theme, for all, is showery outbreaks becoming more prevalent overnight; the fresher, cooler feel being very marked tomorrow and equally, a widespread threat of showers / rain, some heavy and perhaps thundery.

Incidentally, the latest high-res models continue to offer a very thundery-looking aspect to the plume emerging northwards into E Kent, up across the Thames Estuary into E Essex and Sussex / Norfolk through the early hours (current timing suggests arrival through E Kent around 01 - 0400 BST).

[Alex95]

Overcast (mid-level white cloud) and muggy now, was this supposed to happen?

[Mesoscale]

im right on the borders of getting the MCS tonight HOPEFULLY i do, still alot of convection around here though with hazy skies!

fingers corssed

[Ian Fergusson]

Advice needed. Are storms looking likely for Lincs and E Yorks this evening, or am i sitting out here for nothing?

It seems to have gone very quiet, albeit cloudy.

0100BST onwards (into mid Sunday) looks fairly soggy for your area on latest of our modelling but I really do stress the level of sub-regional uncertainty. It's a radar-watch / nowcast gig, for sure. The same applies everywhere. Plus the discrimination between soggy v thundery needs major emphasis....!