Convective Outlook

[kold weather]

Carry on with the discussion here people!

[Hodgheg]

Hoping to hear at least one rumble of thunder in the next couple of days. Not being greedy lol. Skys are a bit milking at the moment

[Anvil Crawler]

Milky and Hazy skies here and temp keeps getting to 23.8°C and dropping then back up,been doing that now for last 30 mins so fingers crossed for a bang

[richep]

A thundery feel to the weather here today, but i'm a little too far south by the sounds of it?

[angela lynne]

willl i get a thunderstorm

[Paul]

NMM High res output breaks some pretty beefy showers/storms out later:

This afternoon:

This evening:

Overnight:

Tomorrow:

Nice to see some better cape values over the UK again:

[Lewis]

After a pretty good start to the summer, hitting 29.4ºc 2 weeks ago, we have just hit 24.9c here in East Hull.

Its very close, and there is the potential for some high level thunderstorms kicking off later this evening.

[Neilsouth]

Thanks Paul ,looks fantastic for tonight

[Craigers]

makes a change for a reasonable thunderstorm risk in southyorkshire!

[kold weather]

Thanks Paul ,looks fantastic for tonight

Your area looks fine regardless of what model you look at, however it is worth noting the NMM is further west then the raw GFS and the NAE model which has done pretty well with this evolution so far for the SE so its going to be interesting to watch for anyone say west of where I am for example.

[Anvil Crawler]

What would your outlook for the Warwickshire/Northamptonshire border be Weather 09 ?

[richep]

Quick question. Is there any risk of storms breaking out across somerset, or the surrounding area?

[Wilxy]

Quick question. Is there any risk of storms breaking out across somerset, or the surrounding area?

Think it will be for the midlands. but still intresting to track

[Cableguy]

Nice 22° Circular Halo around the sun today, not seen one of those for a while, not sure if it's significant to any approaching weather though???

[dogs32]

very interesting small turkey tower's shooting up over South Glos.

very humid and hazy here with a thundery look increasing

Edited June 5, 2010 by dogs32

[Stormyking]

NMM High res output breaks some pretty beefy showers/storms out later:

This afternoon:

This evening:

Overnight:

Tomorrow:

Nice to see some better cape values over the UK again:

Okay those charts for this evening has now got me wondering and realizing that there is still hope, I am begging for something lol.

Good luck to all

[loopydreamer]

NMM High res output breaks some pretty beefy showers/storms out later:

This afternoon:

This evening:

Overnight:

Tomorrow:

Nice to see some better cape values over the UK again:

thanks paul for putting up those charts! looking good for me i think! fingers xxxxxxed

[Rob]

Looking good for Kent and Sussex tonight, have just issued a weather watch for thunderstorms on my site!

[Nick F]

The convective potential looks fairly straight-cut across central and eastern England today, dew points creeping into the mid teens over these areas right now and convergence zones will develop as pressure continues to fall and temperatures hot up, scattered heavy showers and storms look likely to develop - 30-40 kts of deep layer shear may help organise multicell storm structures or perhaps an MCS, though storm coverage still uncertain and looks isolated looking at skew-ts.

Tonight's threat for the SE still a bit uncertain IMO, even though models agree to slide ppn across far SE corner, NWP models are notoriously shaky when it comes to modelling destabilising warm moist plumes and handling where convection/storms will break out - so will be a case of wait and see.

[Paul]

Convective forecast has been updated:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

[dogs32]

wonder if this small finger of precip South of the Cornish coast will become a feature later and intensify

small showers now just off Plymouth

Edited June 5, 2010 by dogs32

[Lewis]

Certainly getting interesting,

Favourite areas for me are East Midlands, Derbyshire (North of Flyingdales) brummie, and the kent coast line.

I may get a few isolated sharp showers with the odd rumble, although its way to uncertain for this area, just a case of watching the radar to see how things develop.

[Wilxy]

I think today could be full of suprises just about anywhere.

[dogs32]

Going for Oxford later...just a hunch

[CaptainHappy]

Convective forecast has been updated:

http://www.netweathe...onvective;sess=

The edge of the main line for the stom aread is tantalisingly close to us cs englanders. lets hope storms are not always so obliging when it comes to staying within these lines very mlky skies here and feling throughly muggy and humid. nigh on overcast with a very thundery looking sky