Convective Outlook

[Lewis]

That storm has just passed a few miles or so south of me at the moment. Skies are really dark in that direction. Not heard any thunder yet, but imagine it's dropped a fair bit of rain on it's way through. The joys of been stuck at home with no transport to go chase.... (you'd think I'd be chased out after 3 weeks in the states heh)

If things really kick off later, and we are around your area we'll give you a buzz on here and pick you up if you want mate.

That said though, I think the main action will be on the S Bank of the Humber.

Edited June 5, 2010 by North Sea Breeze

[Harry]

Not sure if I missed this on here earlier, but MetO gone orange in NE Scotland for scattered thunderstorms.

[ZONE 51]

hi all! its really exciting on here got some good towers around surrey i just love the build up , i think some unexpected displays for some later/into sunday .

[Ian Fergusson]

I agree, the proper showery, convective stuff shall hopefully arrive next week. I think this evening will just be a case of wait and see.

Yeah - having said all that, and albeit it I can't paste the modified NAE frames here to show you, it's a fairly strong shower signal from around 1900BST this evening in the likes of N Somerset, Bristol, up northwards through much of E Wales, Glos, W Mids etc., but I stress how the prognosis delivers the heavier / thundery stuff further to the east / NE.

In broadcasts yesterday morning, on the basis of the model output at that stage, I'd indicated that some BBQ's held here in the West Country on Saturday evening could get a bit of a hosing and I've no reason to modify that opinion, albeit not a widespread risk!

[Noctilucid]

The convection I mentioned previously is looking rather flat and uninspiring at present. Then again the forecast for the South East is for imported storms and instability later with the potential for home grown storms being further North so its hardly suprising.

Healthy cumulus field across Northern France, tonights imported storms may well grow out of that in an hour or two.

Interesting to note the wind is pretty Westerly here. :unsure:

OT: but I'm looking for a French website which is a big public gallery of storm photographs uploaded daily, I've forgotten the name of it. If anyone could link me to it I'd be very greatful.

Edited June 5, 2010 by jshaw

[Costa Del Fal]

Yeah - having said all that, and albeit it I can't paste the modified NAE frames here to show you, it's a fairly strong shower signal from around 1900BST this evening in the likes of N Somerset, Bristol, up northwards through much of E Wales, Glos, W Mids etc., but I stress how the prognosis delivers the heavier / thundery stuff further to the east / NE.

In broadcasts yesterday morning, on the basis of the model output at that stage, I'd indicated that some BBQ's held here in the West Country on Saturday evening could get a bit of a hosing and I've no reason to modify that opinion, albeit not a widespread risk!

Indeed i reckon Lincolnshire, Nottinghamshire and surrounding areas could do well tonight. Showers could merge too, especially on their Journey NE'wards. Id say a good risk of something Thundery around the areas mentioned and a low-moderate risk elsewhere in the shower area.

Edited June 5, 2010 by Blizzards

[Neilsouth]

We had a tower going up earlier was interesting to watch then within 30mins it had decayed rapidly

[Nick F]

Got a high-based Tcu with dark base to my north, looks like south London could cop a heavy shower soon, apparently some dark clouds over S/SE London right now.

[Ian Fergusson]

Nice looking slow-moving thunderstorm/s across parts of north-east Scotland currently- particularly nice cell north-west of Aboyne, Aberdeenshire packing some intense rainfall rates, indicated by some strong radar echoes.

Indeed so - hope the hill walking fraternity are being sensible under those conditions. We've already seen how dicy things can get, with those multiple casualties a few weeks back in Cumbria.

[Lewis]

I found a solution to my Storm Chasing problem :unsure:

I just added Iphone tethering on my business package so I can hook the iphone up to the laptop and stream whilst out tonight off a camcorder with flash media encoder . Dont know how far south we'll end up heading, hopefully the storms will come too us.

Im getting really excited now!

watch this space

[saint]

Hey people!

I see on several forecasts the chance for showers/storms this evening in the East? Is Herts at risk?

Thanks. :unsure:

[Paul]

Hey people!

I see on several forecasts the chance for showers/storms this evening in the East? Is Herts at risk?

Thanks. :unsure:

Hi, and this isn't just directed at you at all, but all those looking to find out what their chances of a storm is, there's loads in this thread, plenty of forecasts on netweather and a good deal of opportunity to answer your own question by reading those. So please try not to just clog these threads with the will it thunder in x, y or z type questions as it'll just make that info harder to find.

[Harry]

Feeling increasingly humid as the afternoon goes on - a mixture of some promising clouds around, including some Cu's trying to tower, a lot of Ac, some AcCas along with a high based mackerel sky further to the West.

[saint]

Hi, and this isn't just directed at you at all, but all those looking to find out what their chances of a storm is, there's loads in this thread, plenty of forecasts on netweather and a good deal of opportunity to answer your own question by reading those. So please try not to just clog these threads with the will it thunder in x, y or z type questions as it'll just make that info harder to find.

Sorry Paul! I haven't been on here for a while so forgot that it is annoying when people do it. Thanks for the heads-up.

[Ian Fergusson]

Hey people!

I see on several forecasts the chance for showers/storms this evening in the East? Is Herts at risk?

Thanks.

Yes. Especially as we're expecting some convergence-driven influences up across Herts northwards. And this is one weekend when I decided not to return to Welwyn Garden City. Lucky me (not).

[saint]

Yes. Especially as we're expecting some convergence-driven influences up across Herts northwards. And this is one weekend when I decided not to return to Welwyn Garden City. Lucky me (not).

Thanks for the reply Ian.

It does seem much more humid today and seems to be rising!

[Neilsouth]

Very humid and it's not gone very hazy , reminds me of the early 90's

[Kain]

I know the storm risk for up here in the W mids aint that great today, but compared to how hazy and humid it is outside, I wouldn't be in the least bit suprised, especally as through the haze convection is starting to kick off.

[Tim B]

Looks like my area is on the boundary line for any potential storms over the next 24 hours looking at the charts and revised convective outlook, sure looks good for those of you in the midlands and east though!

That system near Aberdeen at the moment is looking pretty potent in terms of precip, anyone near it right now?

[Neilsouth]

My head is pounding , a good sign of storms in my opinion!

[dogs32]

nice small trough trying to form South East of Bristol

[Ian Fergusson]

My head is pounding , a good sign of storms in my opinion!

I refer you to the recent compelling research linking migraines to thunderstorms and falling atmospheric pressure.....!

[Lewis]

My head is pounding , a good sign of storms in my opinion!

Thats what i thought but the miss's said i should quit smoking and drinking :unsure:

[Kain]

Really, migraines and thunderstorms? Always thought that was just a myth.

Sorry to go slightly off topic, was just a tad surprised.

[Anvil Crawler]

Looks like i can see some Tcu but looks a bit weak,it really starting to feel stuffy here now