Convective Potential - June 13Th >>>>

[Tim B]

I'm out visiting family at the mo though I can see that line of showers from manc to newcastle perfectly, an interesting sight as it starts just to my S.E and each time one cumulonimbus moves north another one forms rapidly to take its place.

[Alex95]

2 rumbles of thunder here, and one flash of lightning to the south where the activity seems to be passing. I looks like the showers are weakening as they move east, but Tynemouth/Sunderland should still get a rumble or two.

So frustrating, blue sky again here and the line of showers/storms is slipping south. So close, but not close enough. Still, at least I saw one flash of lightning.

[PersianPaladin]

Light patchy rain here. It looks like the cells will scrape by to my south....

EDIT - Can hear rumbles of distant thunder.

Edited June 26, 2010 by PersianPaladin

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think the chances of Tynemouth & Sunderland getting a rumble or two are pretty low. The sea breezes on the coast are generating convergence inland, which is helping to support the heavy showers and occasional thunder that is developing, and I think that will continue for a while, with showers often merging into longer outbreaks of rain, and the odd bit of thunder and lightning. But those same sea breezes will cause the heavy rain and storms to fizzle out as they reach the coast with just a light sprinkling of rain likely within about 2 miles of the coast itself.

Should add to my previous post- perhaps I should revise the assessment of "the chances of the odd rumble being pretty low"- I remember from my days of living in Cleadon that sometimes storm clouds out to the west would give the odd rumble in this kind of setup.

Edited June 26, 2010 by Thundery wintry showers
update appended to previous post

[Alex95]

I think the chances of Tynemouth & Sunderland getting a rumble or two are pretty low. The sea breezes on the coast are generating convergence inland, which is helping to support the heavy showers and occasional thunder that is developing, and I think that will continue for a while, with showers often merging into longer outbreaks of rain, and the odd bit of thunder and lightning. But those same sea breezes will cause the heavy rain and storms to fizzle out as they reach the coast with just a light sprinkling of rain likely within about 2 miles of the coast itself.

Should add to my previous post- perhaps I should revise the assessment of "the chances of the odd rumble being pretty low"- I remember from my days of living in Cleadon that sometimes storm clouds out to the west would give the odd rumble in this kind of setup.

The problem is that the storms are passing to far to the south. If they were further north I would get a thunderstorm, whilst Tynemouth would get a decaying one.

[PersianPaladin]

Very heavy rain here now.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Those storms are inching very close to South Shields, I notice Neil Bradshaw's webcam shows strong signs of an advancing cumulonimbus, and the radar shows precipitation just five miles away from Newcastle and Sunderland and not losing much intensity yet.

The "too far south" issue could indeed prevent areas west and north of Newcastle from getting anything of note, it looks like the whole lot is set to inch very slowly eastwards with time.

[Alex95]

Those storms are inching very close to South Shields, I notice Neil Bradshaw's webcam shows strong signs of an advancing cumulonimbus, and the radar shows precipitation just five miles away from Newcastle and Sunderland and not losing much intensity yet.

The "too far south" issue could indeed prevent areas west and north of Newcastle from getting anything of note, it looks like the whole lot is set to inch very slowly eastwards with time.

Newcastle itself is missing out I'm afraid. It's moving through places to the south of Gateshead, before moving out to sea around Tynemouth (or at least it looks like it will)

Edit: third distant rumble of thunder

Edited June 26, 2010 by alza

[PersianPaladin]

This is the sort of convective weather I like. A cell approaching from the south-west that actually back-develops enough not to scrape by....a rarity.

Good stuff.

EDIT - Very nice rainbow.

Edited June 26, 2010 by PersianPaladin

[Geordiesnow]

Can here the rumbles here and the rain is getting more steadier now.

[Alex95]

Heavy rain again, back from nowhere. A fourth rumble of thunder, and it was slightly louder this time.

[Geordiesnow]

Just heard a slightly louder rumble and another as soon as i am typing

Certainly more than just the odd rumble, can't see any lightning though.

[Thundery wintry showers]

My parents have reported distant thunder and lightning from Cleadon, which is more than I'd expected that close to the coast- so this will definitely go into my weather records as a day of thunder heard.

[Geordiesnow]

The shower still seems to be going strong right at the coast TWS and there has been quite a few rumbles of thunder. the shower is just to the east of me, i'm sure i saw one flash at the corner of me eye because a rumble followed stright after it.

Not a bad end to the day, shame i'm on the outer edge of all this and that me views are not as good.

[Alex95]

6 distant rumbles of thunder, 1 closer one and 1 loud one, and 2 visible flashes of lightning. Much more blue sky now, and the temperature has climbed straight back up to 20°C. I for one am happy with what I got, though slightly jealous of those in County Durham who took a direct hit.

[The PIT]

Some tower building attempts again to the west of us. Looking at the radar one to the south west may have managed it.

[peterf]

i can see them all to my east,but it's lovely here lol.

[Guest]

Some tower building attempts again to the west of us. Looking at the radar one to the south west may have managed it.

Yes interesting to see if it intensifies now, or perhaps its too late?

[Geordiesnow]

I think the shower is dying now because the thundery actitvity has, clouds seem to be getting lighter, oh well some fairly unexpected thunder i suppose.

Tomorrow could be more interesting, there should not be a sea breeze tomorrow and it should be warmer as the winds will be coming off the land.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The shower still seems to be going strong right at the coast TWS and there has been quite a few rumbles of thunder. the shower is just to the east of me, i'm sure i saw one flash at the corner of me eye because a rumble followed stright after it.

Not a bad end to the day, shame i'm on the outer edge of all this and that me views are not as good.

Yes, I think I overestimated the power of the sea breezes- they seemed to be quite effective in decaying the shower activity around Tynemouth (which is often a no-storms hotspot in my experience) but not now that the precipitation is focused further south. There's a monster clump heading straight for Cleadon now according to the radar, which has retained almost all of its intensity.

I'm not going to complain about missing your storms, I had some in Norwich in the second week of June and it's about time that the North-Easterners had a turn.

[Alex95]

I think the shower is dying now because the thundery actitvity has, clouds seem to be getting lighter, oh well some fairly unexpected thunder i suppose.

Tomorrow could be more interesting, there should not be a sea breeze tomorrow and it should be warmer as the winds will be coming off the land.

Maybe, but the sea breeze helped intensify the showers today. Without it, there may have been no storms.

[Geordiesnow]

Maybe, but the sea breeze helped intensify the showers today. Without it, there may have been no storms.

I think the wind convergence helped the showers on the Pennines and they drifted eastwards but once they encounted the sea breeze, they never headed any further eastwards.

[Alex95]

I think the wind convergence helped the showers on the Pennines and they drifted eastwards but once they encounted the sea breeze, they never headed any further eastwards.

True, but without the convergence they wouldn't have existed at all, at least today some thunder reached the coast.

[Andy_]

Didn't expect anything tonight after weeks of dry boring weather, only managed a few rumbles and one canny loud bang of thunder anyways haha. Dieing for a change in the weather at the minute, a thundery break down sounds ideal at some point like

Perhaps tomorrow will give us a little taste of what spain and italy are experiencing at the minute, or not haha. GFS has played with the idea of storms on sunday night been at 63% at one point was at 51% on an earlier run today.

http://www.euclid.org/realtime.html

Was an impressive storm around central spain yesterday, times like these i wish our country would just slide towards the continent - even more so in winter

[The PIT]

Yes interesting to see if it intensifies now, or perhaps its too late?

You're closure than me looking like they're still building.