Convective Potential - June 13Th >>>>

[RichardR]

im hopeing its before thursday that something develops as im off too mexico that day!

knowing my luck ill miss out on the biggest thunderstorm london has seen in ages!

Pretty hot at the moment and a bit hazey but nothing conducive of thunderstorm or electrical activity!

This is what sky news said

I aint having none of it!

There are more storms in Mexico when you'll be there than England gets in a year I believe.

800j/kg of cape forecast in my area tomorrow. Let's see what happens.

[Supacell]

Cannot post any charts as i'm on my mobile but this mornings charts show potential for isolated but quite potent storms over southern pennines, nw england and parts of nw midlands today.

Tomorrow is also looking more interesting with high CAPE and LI across a wider area. Lightning wizard also apoears to hint at instability moving across eastern areas overnight into Monday, with areas such as East Anglia, East Midlands and Lincolnshire in the firing line. Guess its a case of seeing what subsequent charts show regarding tomorrow.

[dogs32]

Im down to 45% today according to netweather..

Also quite high for Tuesday

noticed the East Midlands to the Wash looking good for tomorrow

whats Coast take on things he's late this morning with his charts.

estofex have a warning out

edit thanks Coast....

Late night with the wine..lol

only pulling your false leg

Edited June 26, 2010 by dogs32

[Stuart]

I like the Chat for sunday this could be my 1st one of the year on sunday:D

[Coast]

whats Coast take on things he's late this morning with his charts.

estofex have a warning out

It is the weekend you know!!!!

Valid: Sat 26 Jun 2010 06:00 to Sun 27 Jun 2010 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sat 26 Jun 2010 04:48

Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

A plume of warm humid air stretches all the way from the upper low over Romania to a low pressure area over northern Scandinavia. Between those areas, the largest instability is present along a stationary N-S frontal boundary just east of the Baltic states and Finland.

Other major instability areas are situated over the northern half of the Iberian peninsula, Algeria, and Italy-western Balkan.

Storm Forecast Issued: 2010-06-25 13:27:00

Valid: 2010-06-26 00:00:00 - 2010-06-26 23:59:00

Regions Affected

NW England, W/N Midlands, E Wales and W Northern Ireland (C/S Scotland, N England, Midlands, Wales and Northern Ireland are included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

Low pressure "Ilse" approaches the United Kingdom from the North Atlantic on Saturday, whilst High pressure "Xerxes" remains firmly situated over the North Sea.

Ahead of an increasingly weak eastward-moving cold front, a convergence line is forecast to develop in a N-S direction from the Bristol Channel northwards to southern Scotland. Along this line, aided by local sea breeze effects, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. There is a slight risk of a convergence-type funnel. Showers will persist in some areas until the end of this forecast period.

Across Northern Ireland/Ireland, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the post-frontal airmass, moving northwards. These may persist into the night as they drift towards the Hebrides.

I think it might be late afternoon/early evening and you might be just on the bottom edge of it dogs!

Latest SatRep showing that low coming in later, but nothing sginificant yet

and tomorrow????

[ANYWEATHER]

These charts here show where likely some showers will pop up, with some modest cape too, so someone is likely to see perhaps a thunderstorm today....

[twister2005]

Morning all, i am very new to these charts so still learning, looking at them does this mean there is a possibility of something thundery today/tomorrow round these parts ?

[ANYWEATHER]

Morning all, i am very new to these charts so still learning, looking at them does this mean there is a possibility of something thundery today/tomorrow round these parts ?

Good morning! Forecasting thunderstorms in this country is sometimes as difficult as trying to find a needle in a haystack! But a slight chance of storms poping up around our area perhaps 20% so something to watch later ,your best tool, keep an eye on the sky and the rainfall radar....heres hoping!

[Alex95]

Both the BBC and the gfs are suggesting thundery showers in northeastern areas towards east yorkshire and lincolnshire tomorrow. I wonder if anything will happen!

[A.J]

Pat, Ian.....looking at the charts, I'd say we're in with a fighting chance of seeing some storm action today, even tomorrow looks a damn sight better than it did 24 hours ago

[r6 steve]

I know it's off topic but has anyone noticed the dust symbol on the

met office at 19:00 today? What's that all about?

Back on topic surprise surprise...not no storms here not even a drop

of rain it is nice the warm weather but I'm getting bored of it. Lol

[ANYWEATHER]

Pat, Ian.....looking at the charts, I'd say we're in with a fighting chance of seeing some storm action today, even tomorrow looks a damn sight better than it did 24 hours ago

Hi, Aj. Yep does look better than 24hrs ago, just hope we get something out of this very warm weather, otherwise, Im gonna have a moan and say this weather is a little bit

[Guest]

We're in a good position here to see an isolated thundery shower develop. It'll take a bit of luck for one to form overhead, but I don't mind a short journey if one pops up nearby today

Tomorrow it looks like the usual eastern areas at risk.

[Stuart]

I will keep my eys on the sky over the nwxt few days i could be in luck

[Alex95]

I know it's off topic but has anyone noticed the dust symbol on the

met office at 19:00 today? What's that all about?

Poor boston. Yestersay they were forecast a temperature over 200°C and now a dust storm.

Edited June 26, 2010 by alza

[Craigers]

id take this any day

if this was to happen then id be right in the highest cape area!

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS downgrades tomorrow again.

Really is just isolated risks this weekend. Get a storm and your very very lucky!

[dogs32]

GFS downgrades tomorrow again.

Really is just isolated risks this weekend. Get a storm and your very very lucky!

completly agree with you..

not seeing a great potoentail this weekend...

Maybe some northern areas but apart from that zero.

Im now looking at Tues onwards for any possible risk.

Edited June 26, 2010 by dogs32

[Alex95]

The 06z is a massive disappointment for NE England. Some eastern areas such as Lincolnshire and East Yorkshire might still get an isolated thunderstorm, and Scotland and Northern Ireland should see widespread showers with a few thundery ones.

[A.J]

This damn forum upgrade is a nightmare!...just spent 20 mins compiling a post for this thread, only for it to throw a wobbly!...

I've given up with GFS for storm prediction, and atm it seems the GFS super-computer doesnt know its backside from its elbow, with the wild fluctuations within such a small time period.....anyhoos back on topic, lapse rates are better today (according to NMM) than previously forecasted so potential for today (25C lr for the west midlands - thats borderline storm territory, especially with the other factors coming into play, lift, CAPE, convergence, moisture levels etc)

[NUT]

As ever, Any storms will be completely isolated. However, If you are lucky enough to get one? You will know all about it I reckon.

[Paul]

One or two sharp showers getting going over northern Ireland now, no lightning yet but wouldn't be surprised to see a strike or two.

[A.J]

now then, 2 possible areas of interest this evening....1) over the pennines towards the NE coast, nice CAPE, LI & a well defined convergence zone running north to south resulting in some torrential downpours.....and 2) a little feature over the SW Midlands/west country, a nice pool of energy and lift, with a SW/SE low level convergence zone setting up....will something develop in area 2?

still relatively shallow lapse rates though (25C

[Alex95]

Ligh - moderate showers at the moment, with enormous drops of rain, but its still warm. Very black to my south.

[NL]

now then, 2 possible areas of interest this evening....1) over the pennines towards the NE coast, nice CAPE, LI & a well defined convergence zone running north to south resulting in some torrential downpours.....and 2) a little feature over the SW Midlands/west country, a nice pool of energy and lift, with a SW/SE low level convergence zone setting up....will something develop in area 2?

still relatively shallow lapse rates though (25C

Dont know if they'll hold together to give a light show here right on the coast but ive got the camera ready just incase. Theres a pretty strong sea breeze coming from the SE cooling the coast quite considerably down to 15.8°C so hoping the cool inflow wont destroy these very potent/promising cells.....

Just checked the radar and it appears the cells are holding together as they approach from the SW,still got a few miles to go yet so not a dead cert by any means..