Convective Potential - June 13Th >>>>

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

mmmmmmm bbc weather not saying anything on storms for sunday yet

Actually the BBC East Local Forecast had storms for Sunday

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

I see the pub run has given us quite a downgrade for Sunday

I was seeing double due to the rubbish speed of the forum tonight

Edited June 23, 2010 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[MP-R]

Points West had the thunder and lightning symbol for both Sunday and Monday afternoon so all is not lost even for here.

[A.J]

I see the pub run has given us quite a downgrade for Sunday

I was seeing double due to the rubbish speed of the forum tonight

yep, the GFS 'yo-yo' is in full effect on tonight's pub run.....no doubt a 'storm-potential' upgrade on the 00z, followed by another downgrade on the 06z.....I think i'll take all runs with a pinch of salt until 06z Saturday

[dogs32]

Points West had the thunder and lightning symbol for both Sunday and Monday afternoon so all is not lost even for here.

yes and they might be severe ...

going for OXFORD south west for the first inituation

Edited June 24, 2010 by dogs32

[Stuart]

mmmmmmm i still have this funny felling i wont see any

[dogs32]

mmmmmmm i still have this funny felling i wont see any

early days for everyone Stu......does look like its shunted further North East over night

Pete its a shame we cant meet up if your chasing....

I will have a laptop with me so we could connect through netweather to see where we are in the UK chase,,

Thats providing the Storms are not miles and miles away....

Only doing this later in the summer down south as you know

Edited June 24, 2010 by dogs32

[Stuart]

but our scottish weather not saying anything about it right now

Edited June 24, 2010 by Stuart

[Coast]

The trend has been there for a while now though......

It will be interesting to see how things develop as we get into T+72 hour territory

[dogs32]

Coast are you trying to get a point across

I see you edited it!

Edited June 24, 2010 by dogs32

[Coast]

Coast are you trying to get a point across

I see you edited it!

Double bubble!!!!! Just like our footy team, it's a slow start but starting to warm up to what we want eventually

[dogs32]

Double bubble!!!!! Just like our footy team, it's a slow start but starting to warm up to what we want eventually

Coast slightly off topic quickly...

you posted twice!!

Is this a problem in the threads as I am having problems posting.....

doesnt seem to refresh causing me to post twice also..sometimes

Edited June 24, 2010 by Coast

[Coast]

Coast slightly off topic quickly...

you posted twice!!

Is this a problem in the threads as I am having problems posting.....

doesnt seem to refresh causing me to post twice also..sometimes

No it's me being sleepy and pressing buttons too quickly!!

[dogs32]

No it's me being sleepy and pressing buttons too quickly!!

OK..its my comp then..been doing it for 2 days..

OK np

looking good for the weekend but dont fancy your chances just yet :lol:

Though maybe into next week

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

OK..its my comp then..been doing it for 2 days..

OK np

looking good for the weekend but dont fancy your chances just yet

Though maybe into next week

Sorry to stick with the OT topic,

Dogs, it's not your computer, happened to me yesterday as well, the refresh is taking forever

Back on topic, Wonder how it will develop, I see the overnight run has developed 2 intense regions of CAPE, one in the Bristol, Gloucester, Cotswolds area, (probably skirt round Cheltenham though :lol: ) and one for Western East Anglia, Peterborough, Leicester area. Brings back the 12:00 run potential which was severely degraded on the pub run

Edited June 24, 2010 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[Coast]

Current GFS 'thinking' shows temps will be nice

and as the afternoon wears on.......

[A.J]

hmm....nice eye candy from GFS again for sunday, I'll believe it if its still there 24 hours out....mind you, the good news is that its been showing insane CAPE & Lift for a couple of days now, so the trend is there for all to see...I wait with baited breath

[Casper]

Hmmmmmm........ from the lastest CAPE/LI charts Swindon is right in there! I can only hope.

[Coast]

and some rain coming in early Sunday onwards????

[Lynxus]

GFS has done sunday.

Still looking good for round here albeit shifted east ( suprise suprise )

Only time will tell. Storms NEVER seem to follow the track predicted by GFS.

[Paul Sherman]

Will be out and about on Saturday and Sunday on the Norfolk Broads, Camera and Tripod packed, nice and flat out there like the Plains, will be the Eastern England corrospondant but wont have Internet access so any pictures will have to wait until early next week.

Paul S

[Costa Del Fal]

At this rate, here wont be at risk on Sunday. Maybe Saturday however?

[Stuart]

mmmm it moved more to the east on this run so not good

[Nick F]

Some impressive potential instability still showing on 06z GFS for Sunday across central and eastern areas of England in the afternoon, especially towards the Wash. There does atm on current guidance look to be quite a strong cap in place, especially towards the SE, so storms maybe more isolated than some may hope for. Still a long-way off in storm forecasting terms, so changes are still possible.

[Costa Del Fal]

Well, other than a further adjustment further east on the 6z, GFS doesn't want to break out much convective precipitation at all on Sunday - CINH values look high enough to prevent showers or thunderstorms from forming until late afternoon period. Break the "cap" though, and this would promise some decent thunderstorms across eastern counties. Details still rather vague at this time.

I noticed this too. Showers break out on Saturdayin the West but little on Sunday. Who knows what will happen though.