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Convective Potential - June 13Th >>>>

Paul Sherman
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Oh dear......

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Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted

Chances of some activity developing for my birthday (22nd June) under a weak trough in the middle of the anticyclone, but too far out to have any certainty.

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted

can someone with more experience tell me why GFS is showing 30% storm risk for ireland and scotland ?

i cant see where anything could develop more than light shrs with the pressure around 1020/1025mb something set to develop from the breezes as shown on charts?

im still learning...unknw.gifsmile.gif

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Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted

Under high pressure conditions near the surface can end up unstable during the afternoon because the sun heats up the ground readily causing a large temperature contrast between the surface and upper air.

Usually such convection will encounter a strong cap under high pressure with generally sinking air, but if the cap can be overcome then you can get sharp slow moving showers and thunderstorms in the middle of a high. An upper trough (pool of colder air at 500mb) assists with that scenario, though we don't have one at the moment. Convergence around the coasts due to sea breezes is another common forcing mechanism.

The stronger the high, the less likely it is that this will happen- a slack 1015-1020mb high is more likely to be thundery than a 1025-1030mb high.

The GFS also tends to overdo convection in marginal situations, so sometimes under high pressure if it projects a 20-30% storm risk, the relevant areas end up with only a couple of isolated showers.

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted

thanks im learning and i enjoy it!

drinks.gif

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UKVoodoo Newbie

UKVoodoo

Posted
  • Location: Selby 15 miles south of York
  • Location: Selby 15 miles south of York
Posted

I cant believe how flat this season has been so far even by UK standards its been poor :)

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

With 00z GFS and ECM agreeing on an Atlantic trough moving east in across Ireland later next week and perhaps later over the UK, there maybe scope for some heavy showers or tunderstorms to develop over western areas initially into the 2nd half of next week. Early days this far off and path of the Atlantic trough trying to breakdown the ridge over the Uk subject to revision.

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

GFS 06z goes for a Cape explosion of Central and Northern areas next Wednesday and Thursday.

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The watcher Contributor

The watcher

Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
Posted

Some signs brewing for activity mid and late next week, but subject to change probably.

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

excellent something to look forward to

Great to see more thundery opportunities on the way but i hope any Lows next week dont bring bands after bands of rain. Typical it happens when i have a week off otherwise. :drinks:

If its warm and often sunny with something thundery then thats great. :doh:

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

Great to see more thundery opportunities on the way but i hope any Lows next week dont bring bands after bands of rain. Typical it happens when i have a week off otherwise. :drinks:

If its warm and often sunny with something thundery then thats great. :doh:

Not going to get to optimistic just yet after last time..

Would love to do a night chase for lightning..

look forward to see if it comes off

Edited by dogs32
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

The 25th? Not calling it at this very early stage yet :drinks:

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Indeed, its far too early to call this yet. Just good to see something a little interesting which may happen. Just dont want it to be cloudy, dull and cool most of the time.

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Not seeing an active Atlantic from the models. Jetstream looks weak, and any areas of low pressure that progress further west towards UK will be rather shallow with slack flow- bringing a notable increase in convective potential with warm or very warm temperatures and an increase in humidity, along with better upper cold pool. A very favourable for setup for deep convection and slow-moving heavy showers and thunderstorms, especially at this time of year.

Lets hope so. Havent had time to look into the models properly but good if the Jet stream is weak.

Cant wait till im off to Spain in July. Plenty of hot sunshine but the way this year is going there could be a surprise! Who knows. :drinks:

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Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted

Yes, this "slack low" is typically warm and thundery over the southern two-thirds of England and also Wales, so should provide some interest in the convection section.

I wouldn't be relishing such a setup if I was in Tyneside though- I think much of SE Scotland + NE England look like being dull and cold with low cloud from the North Sea.

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DeepSnow Community Regular

DeepSnow

Posted
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy Winters, warm stormy spring & sumemr, cool frosty Autumn!
  • Location: Barry, South Wales (40M/131ft asl)
Posted

The 25th? Not calling it at this very early stage yet unknw.gif

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Noo, i have my prom that night, so during the day would be great, but that night here has to stay storm free! someone else can have ours that night if they want if it happens!!

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Andy Bown Accomplished

Andy Bown

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
Posted

Everyone's focussing on next week but what's happening today?!

With the NW radar not working (angry because I pay for it and can't use it when needed, yet it was probably fine on all the sunny days!) the Met Office radar shows some very heavy downpours over Wales on the Western side of the Cold Front. Some threatening clouds near to West Wiltshire and it looks positively thundery towards East Somerset right now.

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited)

met office warnings alert for heavy rain wales..shok.gif

cold front not weakerned yet.

is breaking our some intense downpours over wales headin south and a larger area of rain over midlands.

did anyone expect this?

ive only just got online didnt expect to see the radar looking that active..!

Everyone's focussing on next week but what's happening today?!

With the NW radar not working (angry because I pay for it and can't use it when needed, yet it was probably fine on all the sunny days!) the Met Office radar shows some very heavy downpours over Wales on the Western side of the Cold Front. Some threatening clouds near to West Wiltshire and it looks positively thundery towards East Somerset right now.

yeah just noticed thought would be just sharp shrs around that way today..

post-11361-12768703469541_thumb.png

Edited by nimbilus
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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited)

the dew points are much higher over parts of wales 15c going by xc weather..

Edited by nimbilus
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

12z Nottingham ascent doesn't suggest the likelyhood of thunder today, with weak lapse rates and a warm nose aloft.

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted (edited)

12z Nottingham ascent doesn't suggest the likelyhood of thunder today, with weak lapse rates and a warm nose aloft.

ok thanks nick..looking good for some next wk.

whats causing the intense outbreaks over wales ? thankssmile.gif

Edited by nimbilus
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

ok thanks nick..looking good for some next wk.

whats causing the intense outbreaks over wales ? thankssmile.gif

Hi, looks like a convergence zone over East Wales looking at recent wind analysis:

post-1052-1276872773451_thumb.gif

Although the atmosphere is not conducive, this forcing may overcome warm air aloft to produce odd sferic from this line of heavy rain.

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted

Hi, looks like a convergence zone over East Wales looking at recent wind analysis:

post-1052-1276872773451_thumb.gif

Although the atmosphere is not conducive, this forcing may overcome warm air aloft to produce odd sferic from this line of heavy rain.

thanks nick
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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted

very surprised at this warning..

South West England:

Bath + NE Somerset

Bristol

N Somerset

S Gloucestershire

Heavy Rain 1800 Fri 18 2300 Fri 18

Heavy and slow-moving showers will affect some areas this evening and may give totals in excess of 15 mm in three hours.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the Highways Agency for further advice on traffic disruption on motorways and trunk roads.

Issued at: 1532 Fri 18 Jun

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