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Convective Potential - June 13Th >>>>

Paul Sherman
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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted (edited)

the radar shows the area nicely as it developed just about south of here

as the banner from Paul shows-NW has a problem but this link to UK Met, you may need to register but its free, shows

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

Edited by johnholmes
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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted

This link goes to their invent product

http://www.metoffice...ent/weathermap/

Chris

Ps You may need to select radar from the right hand side

i move the invent radar on further to saturday(tomo) and its showing heavy shrs breaking out across east anglia/se england..
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kaz Apprentice

kaz

Posted
  • Location: Barnstaple N Devon
  • Location: Barnstaple N Devon
Posted

This link goes to their invent product

http://www.metoffice...ent/weathermap/

Chris

Ps You may need to select radar from the right hand side

thanks for radar link its very good... starting to cloud over here looking a bit dark to my SE, not expecting the heavy rain to get this far west though.

kaz x

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MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted

Just had a short shower of thundery raindrops but not thundery rain if that makes sense. Very still and quite muggy out. Can see it all on the radar and ideally would move directly southwards but I think it's moving SEwards so may miss a lot of it.

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted (edited)

GFS 18z makes next weeks thundery potential just a NE thing with Cape etc massively downgraded. It will change plenty and quite often i find these situations move south some times. Start taking notice of the models around late monday or tuesday i would say.

Edited by Blizzards
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Somerset Squall Seasoned

Somerset Squall

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted

Just had a short lived, but VERY heavy downpour. Only lasted 5 minutes but recorded 5.7mm of rain in that time alone! Unfortunately, there was no thunder or lightning so this year's thunderstorm total still stands at zero.

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

CAPE will increase or decrease significantly and shift around even at t+24. I would only start looking at specifics around 1-2 days away from a day of notable convective potential. The positioning of the upper trough and associated surface Low is what dictates which places will be favoured for convective activity, and at this stage, the outlook is all too uncertain given the changes in the Low's position and timing of approach towards the UK- which is to be expected at this time.

General theme coming from the models seems to be a warm, humid and showery one for parts of the UK during the latter half of next week.

Indeed which is why i said look from about tuesday especially onwards. Gfs 18z just shows how the situation can all be so different with slight changes really.

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

well so far Im up to a 36% chance of a storm for Wednesday...keep going up plz...

I have lightning withdrawal's

Edited by dogs32
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The watcher Contributor

The watcher

Posted
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
  • Weather Preferences: Any weather will do.
  • Location: Bangor, Northern Ireland (20m asl, near coast)
Posted

No storms so far this year for me either. Not even a little rumble.

Will get some eventually, hopefully a good well organised elevated storm, my fave.

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Thundery wintry showers Accomplished

Thundery wintry showers

Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
Posted

A surprising amount of convection has resulted from this northerly across East Anglia, though it's quite shallow so I do not expect any thunder activity or any particularly heavy rain.

Got to say I'm liking the look of the charts at the moment, emphasis on low pressure to the west and high pressure to the south and east, and slack features rather than a strong Atlantic, usually leads to significant potential for convective events as well as warm sunshine. Not a lot is showing on the GFS 06Z convection-wise, apart from 24 June, but I think Weather09 is right to say we wouldn't need much of a shift for that to change.

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted

im really looking fwd to next week to see what happens with the shallow low..i think some are going to get some big storms and some a near heatwave (most likely se england) or both..unknw.gif what ever an interesting week coming upgood.gif

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted (edited)

im really looking fwd to next week to see what happens with the shallow low..i think some are going to get some big storms and some a near heatwave (most likely se england) or both..unknw.gif what ever an interesting week coming upgood.gif

No near heatwave is at all likely neither are big storms right now. Maybe a few storms or thundery showers later next week but the charts currently dont suggest much. Plenty of time for change, If the current charts were right, the best thundery potential would be further North, not the SE.

Pointless taking notice really until at least Tuesday.

Yes it could turn very warm fro Central and Southern parts at times but not hot.

Edited by Blizzards
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Mesoscale Rising Star

Mesoscale

Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
Posted

Im actually freezing today! its been stressy today as ive been buidlin my new computer all day could do with a good ol storm to relax me and give me something else to think about! but its been shockingly dull here and wednesday looks good for the north not the south/se!

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dogs32 Aficionado

dogs32

Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Posted (edited)

Ian Fergusson saying a possibility of ThunderStorms developing over the weekend...But does say its a LOW risk at present. B)

Edited by dogs32
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Possibilities retreating for this week but indeed looking better around the 28th - given that this is still a long way off yet in Fantasy Island!

MU_London_avn.png

MU_Manchester_avn.png

Rtavn13811.png

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ZONE 51 Community Regular

ZONE 51

Posted
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, squally fronts, snow, frost, very mild if no snow or frost
  • Location: Stanwell(south side of Heathrow Ap)
Posted

data GFS06z for SE uk so far looking good for thunderstorms saturday night(maybe) sunday morning and through sunday as latest shows low develop over n-france so we should pull up thunderstorms from france early hrs of sunday morning of course this is changing all the time as we know but at this stage it looks good.. drinks.gif

post-11361-12771327543794_thumb.png

post-11361-12771327588603_thumb.png

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