New Research

[knocker]

A diatom-based sea-ice reconstruction for the Vaigat Strait (Disko Bugt, West Greenland) over the last 5000 yr

 

Abstract

A diatom-based sea-ice concentration (SIC) transfer function was developed by using 72 surface samples from west of Greenland and around Iceland, and validated against associated modern SIC. Canonical correspondence analysis on surface sediment diatoms and monthly average of SIC indicated that April SIC is the most important environmental factor controlling the distribution of diatoms in the area, justifying the development of a diatom-based SIC transfer function. The agreement between reconstructed SIC based on diatoms from West Greenland and the satellite and modelled sea-ice data during the last ~ 75 yr suggests that the diatom-based SIC reconstruction is reliable for studying the palaeoceanography off West Greenland.

Relatively warm conditions with a strong influence of the Irminger Current (IC) were indicated for the early part of the record (~ 5000–3860 cal. yr BP), corresponding in time to the latest part of the Holocene Thermal Maximum. Between 3860 and 1510 cal. yr BP, April SIC oscillated around the mean value (55%) and during the time interval 1510–1120 cal. yr BP and after 650 cal. yr BP was above the mean, indicating more extensive sea-ice cover in Disko Bugt.

Agreement between reconstructed April SIC and changes in the diatom species suggests that the sea-ice condition in Disko Bugt was strongly influenced by variations in the relative strength of two components of the West Greenland Current, i.e. the cold East Greenland Current and the relatively warm IC. Further analysis of the reconstructed SIC record suggests that solar radiation may be an important forcing mechanism behind the historic sea-ice changes.

 

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031018214001540

 

Did the Sun tickle the diatoms of Disko Bugt?

[knocker]

Icebergs once drifted to Florida, new climate model suggests

http://www.sciencecodex.com/icebergs_once_drifted_to_florida_new_climate_model_suggests-143350

[knocker]

Using records from submarine, aircraft and satellites to evaluate climate model simulations of Arctic sea ice thickness

 

Abstract. Arctic sea ice thickness distributions from models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are evaluated against observations from submarines, aircraft and satellites. While it is encouraging that the mean thickness distributions from the models are in general agreement with observations, the spatial patterns of sea ice thickness are poorly represented in most models. The poor spatial representation of thickness patterns is associated with a failure of models to represent details of the mean atmospheric circulation pattern that governs the transport and spatial distribution of sea ice. The climate models as a whole also tend to underestimate the rate of ice volume loss from 1979 to 2013, though the multimodel ensemble mean trend remains within the uncertainty of that from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System. Although large uncertainties in observational products complicate model evaluations, these results raise concerns regarding the ability of CMIP5 models to realistically represent the processes driving the decline of Arctic sea ice and to project the timing of when a seasonally ice-free Arctic may become a reality

 

http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1839/2014/tc-8-1839-2014.pdf

[knocker]

Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100

 

We construct the probability density function of global sea level at 2100, estimating that sea level rises larger than 180 cm are less than 5% probable. An upper limit for global sea level rise of 190 cm is assembled by summing the highest estimates of individual sea level rise components simulated by process based models with the RCP8.5 scenario. The agreement between the methods may suggest more confidence than is warranted since large uncertainties remain due to the lack of scenario-dependent projections from ice sheet dynamical models, particularly for mass loss from marine-based fast flowing outlet glaciers in Antarctica. This leads to an intrinsically hard to quantify fat tail in the probability distribution for global mean sea level rise. Thus our low probability upper limit of sea level projections cannot be considered definitive. Nevertheless, our upper limit of 180 cm for sea level rise by 2100 is based on both expert opinion and process studies and hence indicates that other lines of evidence are needed to justify a larger sea level rise this century.

 

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/10/104008/pdf/1748-9326_9_10_104008.pdf

Edited October 14, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene

 

 

The major cause of sea-level change during ice ages is the exchange of water between ice and ocean and the planet’s dynamic response to the changing surface load. Inversion of ∼1,000 observations for the past 35,000 y from localities far from former ice margins has provided new constraints on the fluctuation of ice volume in this
interval. Key results are: (i) a rapid final fall in global sea level of ∼40 m in <2,000 y at the onset of the glacial maximum ∼30,000 y before present (30 ka BP); (ii) a slow fall to −134 m from 29 to 21 ka BP with a maximum grounded ice volume of ∼52 × 106 km3 greater than today; (iii) after an initial short duration rapid rise and a short
interval of near-constant sea level, the main phase of deglaciation occurred from ∼16.5 ka BP to ∼8.2 ka BP at an average rate of rise of 12 m·ka−1 punctuated by periods of greater, particularly at 14.5–14.0 ka BP at ≥40 mm·y−1 (MWP-1A), and lesser, from 12.5 to 11.5 ka BP (Younger Dryas), rates; (iv) no evidence for a global MWP-1B event at ∼11.3 ka BP; and (v) a progressive decrease in the rate of rise from 8.2 ka to ∼2.5 ka BP, after which ocean volumes remained nearly constant until the renewed sea-level rise at 100–150 y ago, with no evidence of oscillations exceeding ∼15– 20 cm in time intervals ≥200 y from 6 to 0.15 ka BP.

 

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/10/08/1411762111.full.pdf

 

Some reflections on this

 

Climate implications of Holocene Sea level changes

[jonboy]

Long_term.pdf

I found this which is an supplemented version of an article published in energy and environment in September 2011.

It's title is

Long-Term Instrumental and Reconstructed Temperature Records Contradict Anthropogenic Global Warming

This is the final sentence of the conclusion:

The hypothesis expressed here suggests that the sun could be predominantly responsible for the 100-year-long rises and falls in temperature over the last 2000 years.

Edited October 15, 2014 by jonboy

[BornFromTheVoid]

Energy and Environment isn't a proper journal, and isn't respected anywhere. 

The editor is a climate change "sceptic" and has openly said that she supports stuff that suits here political stance.

 

From the journal manifesto:

 

Perhaps more so than other European energy journal, the editor has made E&E a forum for more sceptical analyses of ‘climate change’ and the advocated solutions

 

From the editor:

 "I'm following my political agenda -- a bit, anyway. But isn't that the right of the editor?"

 

If any respectable journal editor said such a thing, other than being fired, they'd be berated and attacked the the climate denial community for years to come.

 

Energy and Environment is basically where climate change misleaders go to get published when their work doesn't meet the standard of respectable journals.

[jonboy]

 

Energy and Environment isn't a proper journal, and isn't respected anywhere. 

The editor is a climate change "sceptic" and has openly said that she supports stuff that suits here political stance.

 

From the journal manifesto:

 

Perhaps more so than other European energy journal, the editor has made E&E a forum for more sceptical analyses of ‘climate change’ and the advocated solutions

 

From the editor:

 "I'm following my political agenda -- a bit, anyway. But isn't that the right of the editor?"

 

If any respectable journal editor said such a thing, other than being fired, they'd be berated and attacked the the climate denial community for years to come.

 

Energy and Environment is basically where climate change misleaders go to get published when their work doesn't meet the standard of respectable journals.

Are you saying therefore the paper is invalid or the authors don't know what they are talking about? What would have been your comments if I had not mentioned the journal?

[jonboy]

Influence of the sunspot cycle on the Northern Hemisphere

wintertime circulation from long upper-air data sets

Y. Brugnara1,2, S. Br¨onnimann1,2, J. Luterbacher3, and E. Rozanov4,5

1Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

2Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern, Switzerland

3Department of Geography, Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Justus-Liebig University of Giessen,

Giessen, Germany

4Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos, World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland

5Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH, Zurich, Switzerland

Correspondence to: S. Br¨onnimann (stefan.broennimann@giub.unibe.ch)

Received: 15 October 2012 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 23 November 2012

Revised: 28 May 2013 – Accepted: 29 May 2013 – Published: 3 July 2013

Abstract. Here we present a study of the 11 yr sunspot cycle’s

imprint on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation,

using three recently developed gridded upper-air data

sets that extend back to the early twentieth century. We find

a robust response of the tropospheric late-wintertime circulation

to the sunspot cycle, independent from the data set. This

response is particularly significant over Europe, although results

show that it is not directly related to a North Atlantic

Oscillation (NAO) modulation; instead, it reveals a significant

connection to the more meridional Eurasian pattern

(EU). The magnitude of mean seasonal temperature changes

over the European land areas locally exceeds 1K in the lower

troposphere over a sunspot cycle.

We also analyse surface data to address the question

whether the solar signal over Europe is temporally stable for

a longer 250 yr period. The results increase our confidence in

the existence of an influence of the 11 yr cycle on the European

climate, but the signal is much weaker in the first half of

the period compared to the second half. The last solar minimum

(2005 to 2010), which was not included in our analysis,

shows anomalies that are consistent with our statistical results for earlier solar minima.

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

Are you saying therefore the paper is invalid or the authors don't know what they are talking about? What would have been your comments if I had not mentioned the journal?

 

Whenever something is posted up here of interest to me, I check the journal reference.

 

I'm saying that if there work was valid, they should have published it in a reputable journal. There are loads of shoddy journals out there that people can get published in, whether they follow an ideology or pay enough. There is a reason why research scientists try to get published in the major journals, it shows your work has passed high scientific standards.

 

Ludecke's paper/s have been ripped apart all over the internet, even Judith Curry posted up a thorough rebuttal of it by Richard Toll. 

 

http://judithcurry.com/2011/11/08/tols-critique-of-the-ludecke-et-al-papers/

 

More recent, similar work (but published in a better journal) has also been thoroughly debunked, for example, by Tamino.

 

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/02/25/ludeckerous/

[knocker]

Can Big Data Crack Climate Science Puzzles?

 

Powerful data processing techniques, known as Big Data, have not helped climate science as much as other fields because of problems with the data that need to be addressed, according to a new paper in an information technology journal.

 

The paper by two computer scientists from the University of Minnesota–Twin Cities Minneapolis highlights the fact that the data that climate science uses “violate many of the assumptions and practices held in traditional data scienceâ€. Despite having an abundance of data, the climate science community faces the significant challenge of dealing with a continuously changing observing system, they believe.

 

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/can-big-data-crack-climate-science-puzzles.html

[knocker]

Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985–2012

 

Combining satellite data, atmospheric reanalyses, and climate model simulations, variability in the net downward radiative flux imbalance at the top of Earth's atmosphere (N) is reconstructed and linked to recent climate change. Over the 1985–1999 period mean N (0.34 ± 0.67 Wm^−2) is lower than for the 2000–2012 period (0.62 ± 0.43 Wm^−2, uncertainties at 90% confidence level) despite the slower rate of surface temperature rise since 2000. While the precise magnitude of N remains uncertain, the reconstruction captures interannual variability which is dominated by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Monthly deseasonalized interannual variability in N generated by an ensemble of nine climate model simulations using prescribed sea surface temperature and radiative forcings and from the satellite-based reconstruction is significantly correlated (r∼0.6) over the 1985–2012 period.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060962/full#.VD6UI63911o.twitter (open access)

[jonboy]

 

Whenever something is posted up here of interest to me, I check the journal reference.

 

I'm saying that if there work was valid, they should have published it in a reputable journal. There are loads of shoddy journals out there that people can get published in, whether they follow an ideology or pay enough. There is a reason why research scientists try to get published in the major journals, it shows your work has passed high scientific standards.

 

Ludecke's paper/s have been ripped apart all over the internet, even Judith Curry posted up a thorough rebuttal of it by Richard Toll. 

 

http://judithcurry.com/2011/11/08/tols-critique-of-the-ludecke-et-al-papers/

 

More recent, similar work (but published in a better journal) has also been thoroughly debunked, for example, by Tamino.

 

http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/02/25/ludeckerous/

Well if thats the best you can do the use of the usual tactics an methods I give up and you accuse me of not having an open mind

[BornFromTheVoid]

 

Well if thats the best you can do the use of the usual tactics an methods I give up and you accuse me of not having an open mind

 

What are the usual tactics? Why is it you act like these papers are worth defending, but not the vast majority of papers that say the opposite? Open mind and all that? I'm all for researchers working on the links between the sun and our climate, then publishing in respected journals, like Mike Lockwood does.

However, you have to have at least some standards by which to judge things, otherwise you end up believing in healing crystals, creationism or plots to control the world with green taxes!

We can all close our eyes and block our ears and pretend that every guest post on WUWT or every article on a politically motivated journal, that matches our beliefs, is the highest standard of science, or we can live in reality.

[knocker]

The Worst North American Drought Year of the Last Millennium: 1934

 

Abstract

During the summer of 1934, over 70% of Western North America experienced extreme drought, placing this summer far outside the normal range of drought variability and making 1934 the single worst drought year of the last millennium. Strong atmospheric ridging along the West Coast suppressed cold season precipitation across the Northwest, Southwest, and California, a circulation pattern similar to the winters of 1976–1977 and 2013–2014. In the spring and summer, the drying spread tothe Midwest and Central Plains, driven by severe precipitation deficits downwind from regions of major dust storm activity, consistent with previous work linking drying during the Dust Bowl to anthropogenic dust aerosol forcing. Despite a moderate La Niña, contributions from sea surface temperature forcing were small, suggesting that the anomalous 1934 drought was primarily a consequence of atmospheric variability, possibly amplified by dust forcing that intensified and spread the drought across nearly all of Western North America.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL061661/abstract

 

Synopsis

 

http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/1934-had-worst-drought-of-last-thousand-years/#.VD_fSmez1X4

[knocker]

Pretty eye watering temp. rise at Barrow.

 

Strong Temperature Increase and Shrinking Sea Ice in Arctic Alaska

 

 

Abstract: Barrow, the most northerly community in Alaska, observed a warming of 1.51°C for the time period of 1921-2012. This represents about twice the global value, and is in agreement with the well-known polar amplification. For the time period of 1979-2012, high quality sea ice data are available, showing a strong decrease in sea ice concentrations of 14% and 16% for the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, respectively, the two marginal seas bordering Northern Alaska. For the same time period a mean annual temperature increase of 2.7°C is found, an accelerated increase of warming over the prior decades. Looking at the annual course of change in sea ice concentrations, there is little change observed in winter and spring, but in summer and especially autumn large changes were observed. October displayed the greatest change; the amount of open water increased by 44% and 46% for the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, respectively. The large amount of open water off the northern coast of Alaska in autumn was accompanied by an increase of the October temperature at Barrow by a very substantial 7.2°C over the 34 year time period. Over the same time period, Barrow’s precipitation increased, the frequency of the surface inversion decreased, the wind speed increased slightly and the atmospheric pressure decreased somewhat.

 

http://benthamopen.com/toascj/articles/V008/7TOASCJ.pdf

[knocker]

Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades

 

Over the past decade, severe winters occurred frequently in mid-latitude Eurasia^{1, 2}, despite increasing global- and annual-mean surface air temperatures³. Observations suggest that these cold Eurasian winters could have been instigated by Arctic sea-ice decline^{2, 4}, through excitation of circulation anomalies similar to the Arctic Oscillation⁵. In climate simulations, however, a robust atmospheric response to sea-ice decline has not been found, perhaps owing to energetic internal fluctuations in the atmospheric circulation⁶. Here we use a 100-member ensemble of simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model driven by observation-based sea-ice concentration anomalies to show that as a result of sea-ice reduction in the Barents–Kara Sea, the probability of severe winters has more than doubled in central Eurasia. In our simulations, the atmospheric response to sea-ice decline is approximately independent of the Arctic Oscillation. Both reanalysis data and our simulations suggest that sea-ice decline leads to more frequent Eurasian blocking situations, which in turn favour cold-air advection to Eurasia and hence severe winters. Based on a further analysis of simulations from 22 climate models we conclude that the sea-ice-driven cold winters are unlikely to dominate in a warming future climate, although uncertainty remains, due in part to an insufficient ensemble size.

 

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2277.html

 

Synopsis

 

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/10/new-study-strengthens-link-between-arctic-sea-ice-loss-and-extreme-winters/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+carbonbrief+%28The+Carbon+Brief%29

[Gray-Wolf]

So I wonder what ice loss on the Pacific side leads to? We have been seeing low ice conditions across Barentsz/Kara since the early noughties with Barentsz even having really low winter cover so was there some 'lead time' in the pattern establishing ( and surely being augmented by other 'patterns' like low solar which impacts NW European blocking?)? The Beaufort side of the basin was behind the initial Atlantic side's losses so are we seeing this impact now coming to the fore with post 2012 winters seeing the jet sag into a trough over the U.S. ( instead of the ridge pattern that established post 07'?) allowing for cold snaps there as the PV migrated south?

 

With plenty of ice over the Atlantic side this summer I wonder if this hints at the winter to come ( mild and damp with only PMr air-masses bringing wintry precipitation with no 'blocking' able due to the strong jet flowing out from the east coast US?)

[knocker]

Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world

 

Abstract

An extreme heat wave occurred in Russia in the summer of 2010. It had serious impacts on humans and natural ecosystems, it was the strongest recorded globally in recent decades and exceeded in amplitude and spatial extent the previous hottest European summer in 2003. Earlier studies have not succeeded in comparing the magnitude of heat waves across continents and in time. This study introduces a new Heat Wave Magnitude Index (HWMI) that can be compared over space and time. The index is based on the analysis of daily maximum temperature, in order to classify the strongest heat waves that occurred worldwide during the three study periods 1980-1990, 1991-2001 and 2002-2012. In addition, multi-model ensemble outputs from the Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to project future occurrence and severity of heat waves, under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Results show that the percentage of global area affected by heat waves has increased in recent decades. Moreover, model predictions reveal an increase in the probability of occurrence of extreme and very extreme heat waves in the coming years: in particular, by the end of this century, under the most severe IPCC AR5 scenario, events of the same severity as that in Russia in the summer of 2010 will become the norm and are projected to occur as often as every two years for regions such as southern Europe, North America, South America, Africa and Indonesia.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JD022098/abstract?utm_content=buffer9c0d9&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[jonboy]

Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JD022098/abstract?utm_content=buffer9c0d9&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

Moreover, model predictions reveal an increase in the probability of occurrence of extreme and very extreme heat waves in the coming years: in particular, by the end of this century, 

 

will become the norm and are projected to occur as often as every two years for regions such as southern Europe, North America, South America, Africa and Indonesia.

 

So are they going to become the norm going forward or in particular by the end of this century some 86 years away? These types of comments don't help anyone do we wait 86 years or over the next 10years are we going to see these extreme heat waves every 2/3 years and if they don't occur can we call it a bust?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Moreover, model predictions reveal an increase in the probability of occurrence of extreme and very extreme heat waves in the coming years: in particular, by the end of this century, 

 

will become the norm and are projected to occur as often as every two years for regions such as southern Europe, North America, South America, Africa and Indonesia.

 

So are they going to become the norm going forward or in particular by the end of this century some 86 years away? These types of comments don't help anyone do we wait 86 years or over the next 10years are we going to see these extreme heat waves every 2/3 years and if they don't occur can we call it a bust?

 

I thought it was quite clear. It said these extreme heatwaves will increase in frequency over the coming years, to the point that by the end of the century, in the worst case scenario, they will occur every second year in the regions listed. Given that they're comparing to the Russian heat wave of 2010, the most extreme on record by their method, any summers with heat waves that bad in the next decade or two would represent an increase in their frequency. 

 

Moreover, model predictions reveal an increase in the probability of occurrence of extreme and very extreme heat waves in the coming years: in particular, by the end of this century, under the most severe IPCC AR5 scenario, events of the same severity as that in Russia in the summer of 2010 will become the norm and are projected to occur as often as every two years for regions such as southern Europe, North America, South America, Africa and Indonesia.

[knocker]

An Anatomy of the Cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean in the 1960s and 1970s

 

In the 1960s and early 1970s, sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean cooled rapidly. There is still considerable uncertainty about the causes of this event, although various mechanisms have been proposed. In this observational study, it is demonstrated that the cooling proceeded in several distinct stages. Cool anomalies initially appeared in the mid-1960s in the Nordic Seas and Gulf Stream extension, before spreading to cover most of the subpolar gyre. Subsequently, cool anomalies spread into the tropical North Atlantic before retreating, in the late 1970s, back to the subpolar gyre. There is strong evidence that changes in atmospheric circulation, linked to a southward shift of the Atlantic ITCZ, played an important role in the event, particularly in the period 1972–76. Theories for the cooling event must account for its distinctive space–time evolution. The authors’ analysis suggests that the most likely drivers were 1) the “Great Salinity Anomaly†of the late 1960s; 2) an earlier warming of the subpolar North Atlantic, which may have led to a slowdown in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation; and 3) an increase in anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions. Determining the relative importance of these factors is a key area for future work.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00301.1

[knocker]

An analysis of rainfall across the British Isles in the 1870s

 

 

ABSTRACT

Monthly records for the period 1871–1970 from 91 stations across the British Isles are used to place very high rainfall totals during the 1870s, 1872 and 1876–1877 in particular, in context. Comparisons are drawn with 2012 and the winter of 2013–2014, both of which were exceptionally wet in parts of the British Isles. Traditional Lamb weather type count and objective measures of atmospheric circulation obtained from reanalysis of surface pressure charts are used to classify the weather conditions under which these very high rainfall totals were generated. The normally wettest locations in the British Isles, i.e. the uplands in the north and west, were not unusually wet in the 1870s, whereas locations with extremely high rainfall totals (relative to mean annual rainfall) tended to be further south and east in the lowlands. These exceptionally high totals were associated with a high frequency of cyclonic weather types and high scores for atmospheric vorticity; at the same time, the frequency of anticyclonic weather and of westerly winds tended to be very low. The winter of 2013–2014, remarkably wet in southern England, was somewhat different in that both the frequency of westerly air flow and the resultant flow were very high and so were vorticity and the frequency of cyclonic weather types; the year 2012 experienced similar atmospheric conditions. The results confirm the importance of cyclonic weather for large rainfall totals across much of the British Isles; strong westerly winds seem only to favour the uplands and northwest coastal locations.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4184/abstract?utm_content=bufferfcd35&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[knocker]

By a funny coincidence I've just been reading about this subject in Principles of Planetary Climate

 

New Study Shows Three Abrupt Pulses of CO2 during Last Deglaciation

 

A new multi-institutional study including Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, shows that the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide that contributed to the end of the last ice age more than 10,000 years ago did not occur gradually, but was characterized by three “pulses†in which CO₂ rose abruptly.

 

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2014/10/29/new-study-shows-three-abrupt-pulses-of-co2-during-last-deglaciation/

[knocker]

Full-depth temperature trends in the Northeastern Atlantic through the early 21st century^†

 

Abstract

The vertical structure of temperature trends in the northeastern Atlantic (NEA) is investigated from a blend of Argo and hydrography data. The representativeness of sparse hydrography sampling in the basin-mean is assessed using a numerical model. Between 2003 and 2013, the NEA underwent a strong surface cooling (0-450 m) and a significant warming at intermediate and deep levels (1000 m-3000 m) that followed a strong cooling trend observed between 1988 and 2003. During 2003-2013, gyre-specificchanges are found in the upper 1000 m (warming and cooling of the subtropical and subpolar gyres, respectively) whilst the intermediate and deep warming primarily occurred in the subpolar gyre, with important contributions from isopycnal heave and water mass property changes. The full-depth temperature change requires a local downward heat flux of 0.53 ± 0.06 W m^−2 through the sea-surface, and its vertical distribution highlights the likely important role of the NEA in the recent global warming hiatus.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL061844/abstract?utm_content=bufferfd3a4&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer