New Research

[Nouska]

This is far from new research but I was wondering if anyone had Institutional access to the old journal archives to get the gist of what was being discussed.

 

In light of what we now know about the 'Pause', standing waves, Arctic amplification and solar variability, the abstract from this paper seems to have been quite prescient.

 

 

In the hypothesis proposed here for explaining Sun-weather relations, downward winds following the geomagnetic storm onset are generated in the polar cap of the thermosphere and penetrate to the stratosphere and troposphere, where the atmospheric response can be observed as a sudden increase of pressure and temperature. The subsidence effects along the northern margin of the subpolar high pressure areas (mainly the Siberian high) are accelerated and strong eastward winds participate in the intensification of the northern jet stream and in the successive zonalization of flow in mid-latitudes. It is shown that at a time of low geomagnetic activity planetary waves with large amplitudes prevail in the northern hemisphere due to the orographic effect of the Rocky Mountains and Greenland. On the other hand, at a time of high geomagnetic activity, an intensification of the winds can be observed not only in the thermosphere but also in the troposphere. A strong northern jet stream participates in the intensification of the westerly zonal flow and in the increase of temperature successively in the eastern part of North America, in Europe and northern Asia. These relations are clearly detectable not only in monthly averages of the pressure and temperature distribution but also in the daily variations of atmospheric circulation. The results enable us to test a causal link of the Sun-weather processes, to explain strong interannual climate and weather changes in several key regions of the northern hemisphere, mainly in winter, and to study possible causes of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

The results obtained contribute also to the study of the occurrence of long-term cyclic changes which were observed both in solar and geomagnetic activity and temperature T, as well as in the radioactive Δ¹⁴C, and have a similar trend. A composite curve was suggested by summing up sinusoidal curves with periods 70, 200, 800 and 2400 years roughly representing changes of all three mentioned parameters (aa, T and Δ¹⁴C) during the past 1600 years and their probable trend for the next 800 years. The results seem to imply that the global warming could be slowed down in next decades, because the natural component influencing the increase of temperature in the 20th century will most probably decrease in the next century due to the weaker external geomagnetic forcing which was suggested to modify natural meteorological processes.

 

 

 

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364682697001193

[jonboy]

There is a new paper out from John MaClean Titled Late 20th Century warming and variations in cloud cover which demonstrates a linkage between the two

Late 20th century warming and variations in cloud cover.pdf

[knocker]

Not very convincingly

 

Come on, be more skeptical!

Edited October 31, 2014 by knocker

[jonboy]

 

Not very convincingly

 

Come on, be more skeptical!

 

Is that the best you can do Knocks or is this your modus operandi find a blog post that dishes a piece of research that might counter the mantra that 'its settled its CO2 you idiot'

[knocker]

 

 

Is that the best you can do Knocks or is this your modus operandi find a blog post that dishes a piece of research that might counter the mantra that 'its settled its CO2 you idiot'

 

The blog in question is written by a physicist but more to the point do you refute the points he makes? I wish you would stop this nonsensical rhetoric as he didn't dish the research he made some scientific criticisms which I assume you consider invalid.

 

And I didn't find a blog as you quaintly put it as I'd already read it before you posted.

 

As a matter of interest did you find it on the Bishop Hill denier blog?

Edited October 31, 2014 by knocker

[jonboy]

Never heard of Bishop Hill I got it from Laymans Sunspot Count site

When one of the first comment is this about the paper 'So, no role for anthropogenic forcings? Really?' then unfortunately I tend to turn off as it sets the tone for whats to come.

[VillagePlank]

Since this is published by a reputable (?) journal, perhaps this physicist should debunk the claims in 'letters'? Or is scientific endeavour the sole proprietary of bloggers? If we can start debunking published scientific articles simply by writing a blog ....

[knocker]

Since debunking scientific articles, scientists of international repute. reports such as the IPCC and accusations of fraud, all without a shred of scientific evidence, have attained the status of an art form in the sceptic thread I take it that's an attempt at irony.

Edited October 31, 2014 by knocker

[jonboy]

I would prefer that research papers that are posted in this thread are left without comment. If they are not research but just comment then fine otherwise if you think the paper has no merit then comment in the appropriate climate thread thus allowing others to make up their own mind up without undue influence from unnecessary comment

[knocker]

I would prefer that research papers that are posted in this thread are left without comment. If they are not research but just comment then fine otherwise if you think the paper has no merit then comment in the appropriate climate thread thus allowing others to make up their own mind up without undue influence from unnecessary comment

 

Fine I don't have a problem with that but may I respectfully add it's not a bad idea to check out the publishers of a particularly paper.

[knocker]

Forecast cooling of the Atlantic subpolar gyre and associated impacts

 

 

Abstract Decadal variability in the North Atlantic and its subpolar gyre (SPG) has been shown to be predictable in climate models initialized with the concurrent ocean state. Numerous impacts over ocean and land have also been identified. Here we use three versions of the Met Office Decadal Prediction System to provide a multimodel ensemble forecast of the SPG and related impacts. The recent cooling trend in the SPG is predicted to continue in the next 5 years due to a decrease in the SPG heat convergence related to a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. We present evidence that the ensemble forecast is able to skilfully predict these quantities over recent decades. We also investigate the ability of the forecast to predict impacts on surface temperature, pressure, precipitation, and Atlantic tropical storms and compare the forecast to recent boreal summer climate.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL060420/pdf

[BornFromTheVoid]

Far-infrared surface emissivity and climate

 

Significance

We find that many of the Earth's climate variables, including surface temperature, outgoing longwave radiation, cooling rates, and frozen surface extent, are sensitive to far-IR surface emissivity, a largely unconstrained, temporally and spatially heterogeneous scaling factor for the blackbody radiation from the surface at wavelengths between 15 μm and 100 μm. We also describe a previously unidentified mechanism that amplifies high-latitude and high-altitude warming in finding significantly lower values of far-IR emissivity for ocean and desert surfaces than for sea ice and snow. This leads to a decrease in surface emission at far-IR wavelengths, reduced cooling to space, and warmer radiative surface temperatures. Far-IR emissivity can be measured from spectrally resolved observations, but such measurements have not yet been made.

 

Abstract here: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/10/29/1413640111

Paper PDF here: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/10/29/1413640111.full.pdf+html

 

Review from phys.org is below

 

Berkeley Lab scientists identify new driver behind Arctic warming

http://phys.org/news/2014-11-berkeley-lab-scientists-driver-arctic.html

 

[knocker]

A framework for benchmarking of homogenisation algorithm performance on the global scale

 

 

Abstract. The International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) is striving towards substantively improving our ability to robustly understand historical land surface air temperature change at all scales. A key recently completed first step has been collating all available records into a comprehensive open access, traceable and version-controlled databank. The crucial next step is to maximise the value of the collated data through a robust international framework of benchmarking and assessment for product intercomparison and uncertainty estimation. We focus on uncertainties arising from the presence of inhomogeneities in monthly mean land surface temperature
data and the varied methodological choices made by various groups in building homogeneous temperature products. The central facet of the benchmarking process is the creation of global-scale synthetic analogues to the real-world database where both the “true†series and inhomogeneities are known (a luxury the real-world data do not afford us). Hence, algorithmic strengths and weaknesses can be meaningfully quantified and conditional inferences made about the real-world climate system. Here we discuss the necessary framework for developing an international homogenisation benchmarking system on the global scale for monthly mean temperatures. The value of this framework is critically dependent upon the number of groups taking part and so we strongly advocate involvement in the benchmarking exercise from as many data analyst groups as possible to make the best use of this substantial effort.
 

 

http://www.geosci-instrum-method-data-syst.net/3/187/2014/gi-3-187-2014.pdf

 

Discussion

 

http://variable-variability.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/participate-in-best-validation-study.html

[knocker]

Total volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depths and implications for global climate change

 

Abstract

Understanding the cooling effect of recent volcanoes is of particular interest in the context of the post-2000 slowing of the rate of global warming. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) above 15 km have demonstrated that small-magnitude volcanic eruptions substantially perturb incoming solar radiation. Here we use lidar, AERONET and balloon-borne observations to provide evidence that currently available satellite databases neglect substantial amounts of volcanic aerosol between the tropopause and 15 km at mid to high latitudes, and therefore underestimate total radiative forcing resulting from the recent eruptions. Incorporating these estimates into a simple climate model, we determine the global volcanic aerosol forcing since 2000 to be −0.19 ± 0.09 Wm^−2. This translates into an estimated global cooling of 0.05 to 0.12 °C. We conclude that recent volcanic events are responsible for more post-2000 cooling than is implied by satellite databases that neglect volcanic aerosol effects below 15 km.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL061541/abstract

[knocker]

New research – October 2014

http://agwobserver.wordpress.com/2014/11/09/new-research-october-2014/

[knocker]

Solar heating of the Arctic Ocean in the context of ice-albedo feedback

 

Abstract

To study the relationship of solar heat input into the Arctic open water and the variations of sea ice extent, improved satellite based estimates of shortwave radiative (SWR) fluxes and most recent observations of ice extent are used. The SWR flux estimates are based on observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for the period of 1984-2009. Ice extent information at 25-km resolution comes from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSM/I Passive Microwave Data as generated with the NASA Team algorithm developed by the Oceans and Ice Branch, Laboratory for Hydrospheric Processes, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The trends of the solar heat input into the ocean and the open water fraction for 1984-2009 are found to be positive: 0.3%/year and 0.8%/year respectively at a 99% confidence level. There is an obvious transition region separating the 26 years into two periods: one with moderate change: 1984-2002; one with an abrupt growth in both solar heat input and open water fraction: 2003-2009. The impact of the observed changes on the reduction of winter ice growth in 2007 is estimated to be about 44 cm, and a delay in fall freeze-up as about 10~36 days.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JC010232/abstract?utm_content=buffera2c80&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[knocker]

The impacts of climate change across the globe: A multi-sectoral assessment (open access)

 

Abstract

The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts. This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios.

 

http://rd.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-014-1281-2?utm_content=buffer8e791&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[knocker]

Where and when will we observe cloud changes due to climate warming?

 

Abstract

Climate models predict the geographic distribution of clouds will change in response to anthropogenic warming, though uncertainties in the existing satellite record are larger than the magnitude of the predicted effects. Here we argue that cloud vertical distribution, observable by active spaceborne sensors, is a more robust signature of climate change. Comparison of AMIP present-day and +4 K runs from CMIP5 shows that cloud radiative effect and total cloud cover do not represent robust signatures of climate change, as predicted changes fall within the range of variability in the current observational record. However, the predicted forced changes in cloud vertical distribution (directly measurable by spaceborne active sensors) are much larger than the currently observed variability, and are expected to first appear at a statistically significant level in the upper troposphere, at all latitudes.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL061792/abstract?utm_content=buffer87c10&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[knocker]

Ocean primed for more El Niño

 

The ocean is warming steadily and setting up the conditions for stronger El Niño weather events, a new study has shown.

A team of US, Australian, and Canadian researchers sampled corals from a remote island in Kiribati to build a 60-year record of ocean surface temperature and salinity.

“The trend is unmistakeable, the ocean’s primed for more El Niño events,†says lead-author Dr Jessica Carilli, now based at the University of Massachusetts, Boston.

 

http://news.anu.edu.au/2014/11/13/ocean-primed-for-more-el-nino/

[Gray-Wolf]

This just raises my level of concern over just how far the pendulum will swing once the Trade wind anoms and 'cool' natural drivers abate? I'm still thinking that late winter will see another major KW push out but with conditions already Nino primed how will it pan out?

 

We are now seeing the first signs of atmospheric cooperation so things are already looking different to past failed forecast Nino's? Watch this space!

[knocker]

On a minimal model for estimating climate sensitivity

 

Abstract

In a recent issue of this journal, Loehle (2014) presents a “minimal model†for estimating climate sensitivity, identical to that previously published by Loehle and Scafetta (2011). The novelty in the more recent paper lies in the straightforward calculation of an estimate of transient climate response based on the model and an estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity derived therefrom, via a flawed methodology. We demonstrate that the Loehle and Scafetta model systematically underestimates the transient climate response, due to a number of unsupportable assumptions regarding the climate system. Once the flaws in Loehle and Scafetta's model are addressed, the estimates of transient climate response and equilibrium climate sensitivity derived from the model are entirely consistent with those obtained from general circulation models, and indeed exclude the possibility of low climate sensitivity, directly contradicting the principal conclusion drawn by Loehle. Further, we present an even more parsimonious model for estimating climate sensitivity. Our model is based on observed changes in radiative forcings, and is therefore constrained by physics, unlike the Loehle model, which is little more than a curve-fitting exercise.

 

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380014004876#bib0020

[poseidon]

Very nice supercomputer simulation of carbon dioxide movement in the atmosphere, courtesy of Nasa....

 

http://www.nasa.gov/press/goddard/2014/november/nasa-computer-model-provides-a-new-portrait-of-carbon-dioxide/

[knocker]

Total volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depths and implications for global climate change

 

Abstract

Understanding the cooling effect of recent volcanoes is of particular interest in the context of the post-2000 slowing of the rate of global warming. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) above 15 km have demonstrated that small-magnitude volcanic eruptions substantially perturb incoming solar radiation. Here we use lidar, AERONET and balloon-borne observations to provide evidence that currently available satellite databases neglect substantial amounts of volcanic aerosol between the tropopause and 15 km at mid to high latitudes, and therefore underestimate total radiative forcing resulting from the recent eruptions. Incorporating these estimates into a simple climate model, we determine the global volcanic aerosol forcing since 2000 to be −0.19 ± 0.09 Wm^−2. This translates into an estimated global cooling of 0.05 to 0.12 °C. We conclude that recent volcanic events are responsible for more post-2000 cooling than is implied by satellite databases that neglect volcanic aerosol effects below 15 km.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL061541/abstract?campaign=wlytk-41855.5282060185

 

Synopsis

 

http://news.agu.org/press-release/small-volcanic-eruptions-could-be-slowing-global-warming/

[knocker]

Modeling the climate impact of Southern Hemisphere ozone depletion: The importance of the ozone dataset

 

The ozone hole is an important driver of recent Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate change, and capturing these changes is a goal of climate modeling. Most climate models are driven by offline ozone datasets. Previous studies have shown that there is a substantial range in estimates of SH ozone depletion, but the implications of this range have not been examined systematically. We use a climate model to evaluate the difference between using the ozone forcing (SPARC) used by many IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (CMIP5) models and one at the upper end of the observed depletion estimates (BDBP). In the stratosphere, we find that austral spring/summer polar cap cooling, geopotential height decreases, and zonal wind increases in the BDBP simulations are all doubled compared to the SPARC simulations, while tropospheric responses are 20-100% larger. These results are important for studies attempting to diagnose the climate fingerprints of ozone depletion.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL061738/abstract?utm_content=bufferbecc7&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

Not just about sunburn – the ozone hole's profound effect on climate has significant implications for Southern Hemisphere ecosystems

 

 

Abstract

Climate scientists have concluded that stratospheric ozone depletion has been a major driver of Southern Hemisphere climate processes since about 1980. The implications of these observed and modelled changes in climate are likely to be far more pervasive for both terrestrial and marine ecosystems than the increase in ultraviolet-B radiation due to ozone depletion; however, they have been largely overlooked in the biological literature. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of how ozone depletion has impacted Southern Hemisphere climate and highlight the relatively few documented impacts on terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Reviewing the climate literature, we present examples of how ozone depletion changes atmospheric and oceanic circulation, with an emphasis on how these alterations in the physical climate system affect Southern Hemisphere weather, especially over the summer season (December–February). These potentially include increased incidence of extreme events, resulting in costly floods, drought, wildfires and serious environmental damage. The ecosystem impacts documented so far include changes to growth rates of South American and New Zealand trees, decreased growth of Antarctic mosses and changing biodiversity in Antarctic lakes. The objective of this synthesis was to stimulate the ecological community to look beyond ultraviolet-B radiation when considering the impacts of ozone depletion. Such widespread changes in Southern Hemisphere climate are likely to have had as much or more impact on natural ecosystems and food production over the past few decades, than the increased ultraviolet radiation due to ozone depletion.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.12739/abstract?utm_content=bufferdd4b3&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Edited November 20, 2014 by knocker

[knocker]

Extreme weather in the Arctic problematic for people, wildlife

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2014-11/nuos-ewi111914.php