In The News

[BornFromTheVoid]

As painfull as I think it will be, I will read that 4wd, just to be fair.

But seriously, Monckton? Seriously?? Seriously???

[BornFromTheVoid]

I read it anywho. For every logical fallacy Monckton claims is used in the study, to argue against it he uses the same and more. Several of the lines in that are at least, twisted truths.

Global temperature rose rapidly till late in 2001, when the PDO switched just as suddenly to its cooling phase, since when there has been no global warming

PDO either turned negative in 1998, or according to most, 2007.

Yet the failure of temperatures to warm at all over the past 15 years is plainly evident in all the principal datasets.

Nope, only the HadCRUT surface temperature dataset shows no warming since 1998, as far as I know.

Two examples of the hypocrisy in the article, of which there are many.

He is entitled to his opinion that “the ‘flattening’ of recent temperature rise that some people claim†is not statistically significant. However, I beg to differ. Since CO2 emissions have risen at a record rate during the past 15 years, it necessarily follows that the failure of the planet to warm at all over that period points to a natural influence strong enough to overcome – at least temporarily – the rather weak warming effect of the large additional volume of CO2.

He likes to pick and choose whether he uses statistics or opinion...

The global temperature anomalies since 1850, compiled by the Hadley Centre for Forecasting, show three periods of warming that lasted more than a decade: 1860-1880; 1910-1940; and 1976-2001...

...Yet in all three periods the warming was at the same rate: just 0.17 C° per decade. The warming rate in the most recent of the three periods was – within the margin of statistical error – no greater than in the two earlier periods. This inconvenient truth vitiates Dr. Müller’s conclusion that Man is the sole cause of warming.

And another

Dr. Müller’s assertion that fluctuations in solar activity are too small to have any effect on the climate is fashionable but erroneous. At the nadir of the Maunder Minimum, the 70-year period from 1645-1715, there were almost no sunspots...

... The weather was exceptionally cold both sides of the Atlantic: the Hudson in New York and the Thames in London frequently froze over in the winter.

Rough correlations are ok here, but...

The greatest error in the Berkeley team’s conclusion is in Dr. Müller’s assertion that the cause of all the warming since 1750 is Man. His stated reason for this conclusion is this: “Our result is based simply on the close agreement between the shape of the observed temperature rise and the known greenhouse gas increase.â€

The above quote was taken slightly out of context by Monckton, but I think the point is quite clear.

Anywho, I think the statistical analysis of a Physics professor is going to generally be more reliable than that of a journalist, however flamboyant his writing style is!

Edited July 29, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[Methuselah]

As painfull as I think it will be, I will read that 4wd, just to be fair.

But seriously, Monckton? Seriously?? Seriously???

Precisely! Hardly a personage worth taking very seriously? Isn't he one of those 'creationist' types?

[Gray-Wolf]

Precisely! Hardly a personage worth taking very seriously? Isn't he one of those 'creationist' types?

He seems to do a lot of 'creating' Pete???

[Methuselah]

This is (I think?) WUWT's latest statement: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/29/press-release-2/#more-68286

[laserguy]

Your trolling powers are growing weak, LG...

Keep trying; 250 years worth of 'global warming' and we're thriving more than ever. 250 years,eh - when did the industrial revolution start? It's cobblers. And I'm not ugly,smelly,or live underneath a bridge. Troll indeed. One guy switches allegiance and it's headline news,but those who jump the Good Ship AGW are brushed under the carpet. Get a clue,guys.

[4wd]

[Methuselah]

Keep trying; 250 years worth of 'global warming' and we're thriving more than ever. 250 years,eh - when did the industrial revolution start? It's cobblers. And I'm not ugly,smelly,or live underneath a bridge. Troll indeed. One guy switches allegiance and it's headline news,but those who jump the Good Ship AGW are brushed under the carpet. Get a clue,guys.

Hi barrie!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Some line-up eh?

Anthony Watts of California, Evan Jones of New York, Stephen McIntyre of Toronto, Canada, and Dr. John R. Christy

I'm not sure who Evan Jones is, but at least they got 1 qualified meteorologist in the list with Dr. Christy!

I wonder what journal they'll submit it to?

[knocker]

Precisely! Hardly a personage worth taking very seriously? Isn't he one of those 'creationist' types?

I think basically he's a raving nutter with visions of grandeur. Wasn't he going to quarantine everyone with Aids for life? That was one of the problems with eugenics, they wanted to isolate the wrong people.

Edited July 29, 2012 by knocker

[knocker]

Researchers analyze melting glaciers and water resources in Central Asia

After the fall of the Soviet Union twenty years ago, water distribution in Central Asia became a source of conflict. In areas where summer precipitation is low, glaciers play an important role when considering the quantity of available water. The Tien Shan region is a prime example; mountain glaciers in this region contribute significantly to the fresh water supply in the arid zones of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Northwestern China. Like Switzerland, Kyrgyzstan serves as a water tower for its neighboring countries.

While the impact of climate change on glaciation and water flow in the Tien Shan Mountains has already been the subject of studies, a consistent and local perspective of collected data has never before been presented. The results of this research, led by the l'UNIGE, show that the retreat of glaciers is more pronounced in peripheral areas, where summers are dry and melting ice and snow are key sources of water.

[url[http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-07/udg-ram072712.php

[knocker]

Chronic 2000-04 drought, worst in 800 years, may be the 'new normal

CORVALLIS, Ore. – The chronic drought that hit western North America from 2000 to 2004 left dying forests and depleted river basins in its wake and was the strongest in 800 years, scientists have concluded, but they say those conditions will become the "new normal" for most of the coming century.

Such climatic extremes have increased as a result of global warming, a group of 10 researchers reported today in Nature Geoscience. And as bad as conditions were during the 2000-04 drought, they may eventually be seen as the good old days.

Climate models and precipitation projections indicate this period will actually be closer to the "wet end" of a drier hydroclimate during the last half of the 21st century, scientists said.

Aside from its impact on forests, crops, rivers and water tables, the drought also cut carbon sequestration by an average of 51 percent in a massive region of the western United States, Canada and Mexico, although some areas were hit much harder than others. As vegetation withered, this released more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, with the effect of amplifying global warming.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-07/osu-c2d072712.php

[4wd]

As vegetation withered, this released more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, with the effect of amplifying global warming.

Major feedback there then.

Since the rain will have moved somewhere else I doubt any global difference especially with all these new warm areas further north.

Another of those incredibly blinkered litany of doom stories the greens love so much.

[Methuselah]

Has anyone been able to decipher WUWT's announcement yet? Is Watts just rehashing his favourite obsession with station-positioning, or what?

[Waterspout]

Has anyone been able to decipher WUWT's announcement yet? Is Watts just rehashing his favourite obsession with station-positioning, or what?

Well, it's his pet project, just wrapped up nicely in a paper with WHO approved data in it! Overstating temperasture rise by nearly 100% due to UHI in the US. It depends whether we can translate this to a global level, and then it would be very significant.

I am bemused, however, why he cancelled his holiday and suspended his site for almost 3 days! It's an interesting paper, but hardly Climategate 3 !!!

[BornFromTheVoid]

It hasn't been submitted for peer review yet, so other than posting it on his own site, it might not get published yet.

There have been numerous published studies done validating the adjustment techniques used by the NOAA (which is half of what the press release was about), so I presume they'll have to demonstrate how those previous studies were erroneous.

So, seeing WUWT went on a rant over NASA's use of the word "unprecedented" wrt Greenland and then claimed his own paper had an "unprecedented nature" and yet was just another study on the positioning of weather/climate stations, can we expect him to now verbally attack himself?

[4wd]

More about the BEST analysis here

http://www.rossmckitrick.com/

[BornFromTheVoid]

More about the BEST analysis here

http://www.rossmckitrick.com/

I'm caught with this guy. I agree with his sentiment overall, that pre-publication publicity stunts aren't right, but them I'm caught wondering why someone who only appears to have qualifications in economics is a reviewer for JGR? Also, him being part of the Cornwall Alliance doesn't help his cause.

But despite those 2 issues, I kinda agree with the guy.

[knocker]

Worldwide increase of air pollution

Atmospheric model calculates changes in air quality over the coming decades

Air pollution is one of the major current health risks of humanity. At present, urban outdoor air pollution causes 1.3 million estimated deaths per year worldwide, according to the World Health Organisation. That number will increase in coming years. Therefor Andrea Pozzer and his colleagues studied the impact of man-made emissions on air quality in different regions of the earth. They show, what could happen if no further action is taken to reduce pollutants.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-08/m-wio080112.php

[4wd]

I would say air quality in developed nations is generally better than it has been at any time in the last two hundred years.

'1.3million worldwide' sounds remarkably low too, considering how many people are living in 'urban' environments.

[Devonian]

I would say air quality in developed nations is generally better than it has been at any time in the last two hundred years.

I would doubt that, but neither of us is presenting any figures...

'1.3million worldwide' sounds remarkably low too, considering how many people are living in 'urban' environments.

Sounds like a lot of people to me.

Edited August 2, 2012 by Devonian

[knocker]

Tropical climate in the Antarctic

Palm trees once thrived on today's icy coasts 52 million years ago

FRANKFURT. Given the predicted rise in global temperatures in the coming decades, climate scientists are particularly interested in warm periods that occurred in the geological past. Knowledge of past episodes of global warmth can be used to better understand the relationship between climate change, variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide and the reaction of Earth's biosphere. An international team led by scientists from the Goethe University and the Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre in Frankfurt, Germany, has discovered an intense warming phase around 52 million years ago in drill cores obtained from the seafloor near Antarctica — a region that is especially important in climate research. The study published in the journal Nature shows that tropical vegetation, including palms and relatives of today's tropical Baobab trees, was growing on the coast of Antarctica 52 million years ago. These results highlight the extreme contrast between modern and past climatic conditions on Antarctica and the extent of global warmth during periods of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.

Around 52 million years ago, the concentration of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere was more than twice as high as today. "If the current CO2 emissions continue unabated due to the burning of fossil fuels, CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, as they existed in the distant past, are likely to be achieved within a few hundred years", explains Prof. Jörg Pross, a paleoclimatologist at the Goethe University and member of the Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F) in Frankfurt, Germany. "By studying naturally occurring climate warming periods in the geological past, our knowledge of the mechanisms and processes in the climate system increases. This contributes enormously to improving our understanding of current human-induced global warming."

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-08/guf-tci080112.php

[knocker]

I would say air quality in developed nations is generally better than it has been at any time in the last two hundred years.

'1.3million worldwide' sounds remarkably low too, considering how many people are living in 'urban' environments.

I think this has to be qualified. It's no doubt true that pollution from industrial processes such as the huge copper smelting industry of South Wales and other large industrial complexes, allied with the massive reduction in private coal burning (elimination of smog with the Clear Air Act) has drastically reduced certain forms of pollution.

Against that has been the huge increase in road traffic that has caused a massive increase in low level pollution, ozone, nitrous products, small particulate matter, all of which are very damaging to health. Living in rural areas is not necessarily a safegaurd against ozone pollution as it can travel quite large distances given the right meteorological conditions.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A fine critique of the Watts et al. study here http://www.skepticalscience.com/watts_new_paper_critique.html

[Waterspout]

Tropical climate in the Antarctic

Palm trees once thrived on today's icy coasts 52 million years ago

Around 52 million years ago, the concentration of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere was more than twice as high as today. "If the current CO2 emissions continue unabated due to the burning of fossil fuels, CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, as they existed in the distant past, are likely to be achieved within a few hundred years",

By studying naturally occurring climate warming periods in the geological past, our knowledge of the mechanisms and processes in the climate system increases. This contributes enormously to improving our understanding of current human-induced global warming

I'm curious about the 'snapshot' correlation made based on conditions exactly 52m years ago. co2 was indeed twice that of today, but this was just at the end of a very cool period which lasted about 75m years when co2 was 2 to 2.5 times today. co2 was even higher before that, ranging from 2 to 4 times that of today, and we still alternated between 10's of millions of yeas of Cold and Warm cycles, which have no correlation whatsoever with the concentrations of co2 gases.

If you look at the graph below, which shows at the top Cold and Warm period using Grey and White bars, then this cycle of Warm and Cold happened irrespective of co2 levels, which varied of their own accord, and there is no direct correlation.

So, using 52m ago as a snapshot in time of a coincidence of Higher co2 with Higher temperature at only that specific point in time, and ignoring all the data spread across 500m years, is hardly very subjective evidence of what might happen if we double our current co2 concentrations.

http://www.pnas.org/content/99/7/4167/F4.expansion.html

Edited August 2, 2012 by Waterspout