In The News

[Waterspout]

Hi cynical!

So you don't think there is a chance the Arctic may be ice free in summer within the next 10 years?

Call me picky, but! An "Ice Free Summer" is no ice from about June to August (or whatever 3 month rolling period you define as Summer).

To say this might be only 1,2, or even a couple of days of complete loss in the height of Summer, is certainly not the same as "Ice Free Summer"

I do agree, however, that within 10 years we might have "A Day (or 2) of No Ice in Summer" Notice the rewording from "An Ice Free Summer", which I don't agree with.

[BornFromTheVoid]

UCL are running the cryosat2 mission, so they have the very best data available to make the predictions.

It's easy to grab a few words or a phrase out of context in order to misconstrue the entire interview/article. The 10 years prediction seems reasonable, considering we've over 50% of the September ice volume in the last 10 years alone

[BornFromTheVoid]

Call me picky, but! An "Ice Free Summer" is no ice from about June to August (or whatever 3 month rolling period you define as Summer).

To say this might be only 1,2, or even a couple of days of complete loss in the height of Summer, is certainly not the same as "Ice Free Summer"

I do agree, however, that within 10 years we might have "A Day (or 2) of No Ice in Summer" Notice the rewording from "An Ice Free Summer", which I don't agree with.

Headline grabbing papers will do that, whether it's with science, politics, sports or anything else! At least it's the paper you disagree with then.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_9744000/9744378.stm

The interview is above and he did indeed say it might mean 1 day but only as a "we might see and ice free summer by 2020" statement? As you know i suspect that we shall see the first 'ice free year' before 2020 as , should the perfect storm synoptic respect the past 2 storms 10yr spacings then 2017 would be the date . After what we have seen this year i have to wonder if it will need to be so delayed after all?

The other thing I did pick up on, that waterspout did not mention, is that the figures for ice volume causing the stir in the media were for min volume Last Minimum and not currently? I wonder what the real volume is at the moment considering how low volume has gone this summer? we may need to up the "50% faster" soundbite?

[4wd]

You would think they would be more cautious with these rash predictions since they are easily picked up for mockery later.

The models don't really have a handle on the main drivers which suggests to me they could as likely be wildly wrong altogether.

It's very naive to point to graph showing steady decline and assume it will continue the same when the driving mechanism is not understood.

It really isn't as simple as more CO2=warmer=less ice.

[BornFromTheVoid]

You would think they would be more cautious with these rash predictions since they are easily picked up for mockery later.

The models don't really have a handle on the main drivers which suggests to me they could as likely be wildly wrong altogether.

It's very naive to point to graph showing steady decline and assume it will continue the same when the driving mechanism is not understood.

It really isn't as simple as more CO2=warmer=less ice.

But when the ice is disappearing quicker than the vast majority of predictions and models, with no sign of a slow down, it's not unreasonable to think that will continue.

Whatever the cause, without even taking the CO2 "debate" into it, the ice is disappearing quickly and on all measurement types. That's simply the situation.

[4wd]

But when the ice is disappearing quicker than the vast majority of predictions and models, with no sign of a slow down, it's not unreasonable to think that will continue.

Whatever the cause, without even taking the CO2 "debate" into it, the ice is disappearing quickly and on all measurement types. That's simply the situation.

This suggests they don't understand the mechanism though.

Anyone can extend the line on a graph but in nature most things follow undulating sine wave patterns.

[BornFromTheVoid]

This suggests they don't understand the mechanism though.

Anyone can extend the line on a graph but in nature most things follow undulating sine wave patterns.

There are probably several mechanisms involved, and they may have just missed or underestimated one.

The sign wave pattern doesn't appear visible for sea ice on decadal scales at least, which is now the time frame given for a seasonal pack.

[Methuselah]

You would think they would be more cautious with these rash predictions since they are easily picked up for mockery later.

The models don't really have a handle on the main drivers which suggests to me they could as likely be wildly wrong altogether.

It's very naive to point to graph showing steady decline and assume it will continue the same when the driving mechanism is not understood.

It really isn't as simple as more CO2=warmer=less ice.

What else are they to do, 4wd? Do and say nothing? It's hardly their fault that Right Wing politicians and media hacks don't understand the words 'could' and 'might'?

Would you have gagged those who assured us (about 10 years' back) that, due to Solar cycles, the globe is going to cool down? After all, that one turned out to be a little wide-of-the-mark too?

Science is, after all, about making predictions? being allowed to get them wrong applies equally to both sides...

[Methuselah]

This suggests they don't understand the mechanism though.

Anyone can extend the line on a graph but in nature most things follow undulating sine wave patterns.

Cyclical things do, yes. Non-cyclical things (Hooke's law or the change in the mean distance between the Earth and the Moon, over time) don't...

[knocker]

Greenland melting breaks record 4 weeks before season's end

Melting over the Greenland ice sheet shattered the seasonal record on August 8 – a full four weeks before the close of the melting season, reports Marco Tedesco, assistant professor of Earth and atmospheric sciences at The City College of New York.

The melting season in Greenland usually lasts from June – when the first puddles of meltwater appear – to early-September, when temperatures cool. This year, cumulative melting in the first week in August had already exceeded the record of 2010, taken over a full season, according to Professor Tedesco's ongoing analysis.

"With more yet to come in August, this year's overall melting will fall way above the old records. That's a goliath year – the greatest melt since satellite recording began in 1979," said Professor Tedesco.

http://www.greenlandmelting.com/

Video: Bridge destruction over Watson River, Greenland, likely a consequence of cumulative melting. (Filmed by M.Tedesco)

[Polar Maritime]

[BornFromTheVoid]

Hottest rain on record? Rain falls at 115°F in Needles, California

A searing heat wave rare even for the Desert Southwest sent temperatures soaring to record levels on Monday, with Needles, California tying its record high for the date of 118°F (47.8°C). The temperature might have gone higher in Needles, but a thunderstorm rolled in at 3:20 pm, and by 3:56 pm PDT, rain began falling at a temperature of 115°F (46.1°C).

Most of the rain evaporated, since the humidity was only 11%, and only a trace of precipitation was recorded in the rain gauge. Nevertheless, Monday's rain at 115° in Needles sets a new world record for the hottest rain in world history.

http://www.wundergro...l?entrynum=2186

[su rui ke]

The NOAA July report is out:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2012/7

The overall anomaly was 0.62C, similar to the value for recent months. It's the 4th warmest July in the series but over the continental US it was the warmest (of any) month since national records began there.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The NOAA July report is out:

http://www.ncdc.noaa...c/global/2012/7

The overall anomaly was 0.62C, similar to the value for recent months. It's the 4th warmest July in the series but over the continental US it was the warmest (of any) month since national records began there.

I think what's interesting on that, is that we're closing in on the previous warmest years and while El Nino remains, it seems the average monthly anomaly will continue to increase.

[Methuselah]

I think what's interesting on that, is that we're closing in on the previous warmest years and while El Nino remains, it seems the average monthly anomaly will continue to increase.

Not much evidence for global cooling there?

[Gray-Wolf]

The greater worry , joking aside, is what happens when we see a set of 'warm drivers' take over from the cooler ones we are told will instigate cooling?

[Methuselah]

The greater worry , joking aside, is what happens when we see a set of 'warm drivers' take over from the cooler ones we are told will instigate cooling?

Precisely! And the 'sceptics' will still keep lampooning the IPPC's predictions!

[Gray-Wolf]

Precisely! And the 'sceptics' will still keep lampooning the IPPC's predictions!

I think that some of the following of the faux sceptic blogs are feeling a bit nervous, due to world events, defections and a lack of believable leadership from their once 'infallible' spokespersons?

Due to the length of time folk have invested in fighting the evidence I believe that the prospect of having the 'proof', often demanded, arriving in every larger dollops (from all areas of climate study) will lead to an increasing number of fractious encounters being instigated by such posters? This will probably then lead to many of the faux sceptics creating a highly emotive scene and saying farewell (I do not imagine many of them saying "My suspicions have proved incorrect and the science has shown me how wrong I have been"?)

In some ways we have wasted over ten years in trying to show folk, who were unwilling to see, how dire the prospects were becoming due to the inactivity the disinformation sites had, with the help of a willing media, created.

[laserguy]

I think that some of the following of the faux sceptic blogs are feeling a bit nervous, due to world events, defections and a lack of believable leadership from their once 'infallible' spokespersons?...........

More AGW cobblers. I might as well get a job in a shoe repair shop.

[knocker]

More AGW cobblers. I might as well get a job in a shoe repair shop.

More well argued scientific observations.

[4wd]

Quite appropriate in the context of what he quoted

[keithlucky]

The NOAA July report is out:

http://www.ncdc.noaa...c/global/2012/7

The overall anomaly was 0.62C, similar to the value for recent months. It's the 4th warmest July in the series but over the continental US it was the warmest (of any) month since national records began there.

Wrong July 1901 hottest month on record in the USA 78.35.

[laserguy]

More well argued scientific observations.

You're welcome.

[knocker]

Wrong July 1901 hottest month on record in the USA 78.35.

76.91F according to NOAA.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/time-series/index.php?parameter=tmp&month=7&year=1901&filter=1&state=110&div=0