In The News

[Methuselah]

Who are these 'alarmists' anyway? I've heard Corbyn mention them a few times but, as he never seems able to name any of them, I guess we'll be forever in the dark?

[keithlucky]

Her we go ... the last line on this page several meters rise is mentioned http://www.google.co...LR_u86Azbk5vzjA

[Methuselah]

That looks like between 200 and 500mm to me. Mind you, I have had a few vodkas!

[BornFromTheVoid]

Her we go ... the last line on this page several meters rise is mentioned http://www.google.co...LR_u86Azbk5vzjA

You mean this line?

Over many centuries or millennia, sea level could rise by several metres

That hasn't claimed catastrophic sea level rise in the last 18 years. And it also points out that sea level rise is accelerating

Are you claiming the IPCC are alarmist?

More alarmist than some of the headlines in your first link? Such as

Patrick Clawson Assisting Zio-Communist Takeover of US Under Cover of Washington Institute

US Government’s Secret Army: Foreign Troops to Be Deployed After Martial Law Is Declared

Is DHS Preparing for False Flag Attack on American Shopping Malls?

I particularly like this one

Climate Change Science Nukes the Atmosphere to Measure CO2

[songster]

The sea level rise was predicted to rise by at least meter by 2100 by most Global Alarmists.

Someone doesn't understand exponential curves. If you don't know why I said that, it's probably you.

[jethro]

Someone doesn't understand exponential curves. If you don't know why I said that, it's probably you.

It would be more helpful if you explained; people learn through explanation and instruction. How about helping people to understand the subject so that we may all learn a little more, I'm sure many would find it useful.

[knocker]

Climate sceptics more prominent in UK and US media

Climate sceptics are being given a more prominent, and sometimes uncontested, voice in UK and US newspapers in contrast to other countries around the world, new research suggests.

The findings have been published today, 5 October, in IOP Publishing's journal Environmental Research Letters, as part of a study looking at how climate scepticism manifested itself in the print media of the US, UK, Brazil, China, India and France during a 3-month period which included 'Climategate' in 2009/10 and a second period which covered the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report in 2007.

In an audit of over 2,064 newspaper articles from the six countries during the first period, the authors, from the University of Oxford and University of London, found that around one in nine articles contained a sceptical voice.

In the US, 34 per cent of all climate change stories appearing in the New York Times and Wall Street Journal during this time had a sceptical voice. Of the 511 climate change articles appearing in the Guardian/Observer and the Daily/Sunday Telegraph during this time, 19 per cent contained a sceptical voice.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-10/iop-csm100312.php

[BornFromTheVoid]

NEW 4-Mile Long Oil Slick Near BP’s Gulf Oil Well

An oil sheen about four miles long has appeared in the Gulf of Mexico near the site of the worst oil spill in U.S. history, a Coast Guard spokesman said Thursday.

It was not immediately clear where the oil is coming from, said Petty Officer 3rd Class Ryan Tippets. [Although previous oil has been matched as a "dead ringer" to the BP well.]

Coast Guardsmen went to the location after seeing the oil on a satellite image, Tippets said. The response team collected samples and sent them to the Coast Guard Marine Safety Lab in Connecticut for testing.

http://www.washingto...o-oil-well.html

[4wd]

http://energybulletin.net/stories/2012-01-03/hansen-still-argues-5m-21st-c-sea-level-rise-possible

Hansen still argues 5m 21st C sea level rise possible

[4wd]

http://www.indybay.o...22/18709897.php

20 meters?

Edited October 5, 2012 by 4wd

[4wd]

http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=llJeAAAAIBAJ&sjid=AWENAAAAIBAJ&pg=5501,1378938&dq=james-hansen&hl=en

2C higher by 2006, hotter than the last 100,00 years

[knocker]

One study on the current state of play of sea level rise.

Historical sea level changes

Last two decades

High quality measurements of (near)-global sea level have been made since late 1992 by satellite altimeters, in particular, TOPEX/Poseidon (launched August, 1992), Jason-1 (launched December, 2001) and Jason-2 (launched June, 2008). This data has shown a more-or-less steady increase in Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) of around 3.1 ± 0.4 mm/year over that period. This is more than 50% larger than the average value over the 20th century. Whether or not this represent a further increase in the rate of sea level rise is not yet certain.

The two plots below show the GMSL measured from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2.

This one shows it with the seasonal signal removed:

And this shows it with the seasonal signal left in:

http://www.cmar.csir...st_last_15.html

IPCC AR4 sea-level projections - an update

Projections for global averaged sea-level change for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) were based on global climate model simulations completed as part of an internationally organized set of climate simulations called CMIP-3. For the twentieth century, the models used observed changes in greenhouse gas concentrations and other climatic forcings while, for the twenty-first century, they used greenhouse-gas emissions from the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES).

The sea-level projections (see the figures and tables below) include changes in ocean heat content and thus ocean thermal expansion, changes in glacier mass, surface mass balance changes for the ice sheets and changes in ice-sheet flow. Recognising that land ice contributions did not adequately take account of dynamic ice-sheet processes, Meehl et al. (2007) calculated an additional "scaled-up ice sheet discharge" term as an estimate of possible contributions from a dynamic response of the large Ice Sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. The effect of this term is also shown in the figure below. It should be noted that there is no firm theoretical or observational basis for this scaled-up ice sheetdischarge. The AR4 explicitly states that larger rises cannot be excluded and its projections for sea-level rise do not give a best estimate or an upper bound. Note that since publication of the AR4, Pfeffer et al. (2008) have argued that a rise in excess of 2 metres is "physically untenable," and that a maximum rise of 0.8 metres (near the upper end of the IPCC AR4 projections) is more plausible.

This figure shows projections of global-averaged sea-level rise for the greenhouse gas scenarios from the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios(SRES) to 2100 with respect to 1990. The shaded region shows the full (5- to 95-percentile) range of projections, without scaled-up ice sheet discharge. The continuous coloured lines from 1990 to 2100 indicate the central value of the projections, including the scaled-up ice sheet discharge. The bars at right show the 5- to 95-percentile range of projections for 2100 for the various SRES scenarios. The horizontal lines/diamonds in the bars are the central values without and with the scaled-up ice sheet discharge. The observational estimates of global-averaged sea level based on tide-gauge measurements and satellite-altimeter data are shown in black and red, respectively. The tide-gauge data are set to zero at the start of the projections in 1990, and the altimeter data are set equal to the tide-gauge data at the start of the record in 1993. The projections are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), as reproduced in Church et al. (2011a)

http://www.cmar.csiro.au/sealevel/sl_proj_21st.html

Edited October 5, 2012 by knocker

[Devonian]

http://news.google.c...es-hansen&hl=en

2C higher by 2006, hotter than the last 100,00 years

No, you've either misread or you're misquoting. Clue : Farenhiet....

[4wd]

OK, I blame Americans (but it doesn't say F or C just degrees), but was 2006 hotter than the last 100,000 years?

Various posters implied there were no alarmist predictions about sea level but there are plenty, in fact I think there was quite a competition to be as alarmist as possible for a while.

Anyone could think they had an agenda.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.indybay.o...22/18709897.php

20 meters?

The 'Tahiti' paper from March this year shows us that meltwater pulse '1A' took only 340 years to raise sea levels by 18 to 22m (40mm/year). It was thought that a rapid disintegration of the Antarctic ice sheet lead to the majority of the pulse (the northern ice sheets collapse constituting the second pulse).

This would seem to suggest that Antarctica is the true 'Canary in the coal mine' and that the Arctic (not associated with SLR) and Greenland (only 7m rise?) are mere distractions and we should be looking more closely at the Pine Island complex, which is the biggest drain of the W.A.I.S. and Ross, the biggest drain of the E.A.I.S., for signs of upcoming collapses and rapid SLR's?

Sadly the big calve expected from Pine this year is just such a signal.

[Devonian]

OK, I blame Americans (but it doesn't say F or C just degrees), but was 2006 hotter than the last 100,000 years?

Various posters implied there were no alarmist predictions about sea level but there are plenty, in fact I think there was quite a competition to be as alarmist as possible for a while.

Anyone could think they had an agenda.

To answer your question, probably not.

I'd submit your agenda is to call anyone you disagree with wrt AGW an alarmist.

Or, for example, would you say my moderate, middle of the scientific road view of a likely 2C warming effect by 2100 and a probable 1m+ of sea level rise is not alarmist? Go on surprise me

Edited October 5, 2012 by Devonian

[4wd]

20 metre sea level rises IS alarmist, sorry.

[4wd]

Why would anyone come out with such an alarmist statement unless they had an agenda to scare the public into accepting draconian energy related legislation?

Which we have now got see news about coal fired power stations being closed with risk of power cuts.

[Devonian]

20 metre sea level rises IS alarmist, sorry.

I think it is unlikely but I don't feel the need to go beyond that and tag such views with emotive and tendentious names. Besides, you've not answered MY question but another...

[4wd]

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-19842401

There, you got what you wanted, enjoy and revel in it - until the backlash.

Edited October 5, 2012 by 4wd

[knocker]

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-19842401

There, you got what you wanted, enjoy and revel in it - until the backlash.

I'm afraid that makes no sense to me. Who is it aimed at?

[Devonian]

http://www.bbc.co.uk...siness-19842401

There, you got what you wanted, enjoy and revel in it - until the backlash.

I'm sorry I missed who it was who wants this?

[knocker]

The 'Tahiti' paper from March this year shows us that meltwater pulse '1A' took only 340 years to raise sea levels by 18 to 22m (40mm/year). It was thought that a rapid disintegration of the Antarctic ice sheet lead to the majority of the pulse (the northern ice sheets collapse constituting the second pulse).

This would seem to suggest that Antarctica is the true 'Canary in the coal mine' and that the Arctic (not associated with SLR) and Greenland (only 7m rise?) are mere distractions and we should be looking more closely at the Pine Island complex, which is the biggest drain of the W.A.I.S. and Ross, the biggest drain of the E.A.I.S., for signs of upcoming collapses and rapid SLR's?

Sadly the big calve expected from Pine this year is just such a signal.

The Antarctic could well be the 'Canary in the coal mine' but there is huge amount of uncertainty about this. A brief summary by Turner and Marshall.

Predictions .for the next 100 years

The Antarctic

The surface mass balance ofthe Antarctic Ice Sheet is extremely important in terms ofsea level risesinceithasanannualwaterturnover of6mmsealevelequivalent(Budd, 1991).Overthe next century we expect an increase in precipitation across Antarctica as temperatures rise, with there being perhaps an increase of 20% over the current snowfall (Bracegirdle et al., 2008). The AR4 estimated that for an average temperature change of 3 °C over the Antarctic, four high-resolution AGCM simulations and 18 AR4 AOGCMs gave a surface mass balance change of -0.9 ± 0.5 mm yr-1 for the continent (sea level equivalent), in other words a sensitivity of-0.29 ± 0.18 mm yr-1 °C-1 for Antarctica. Most of the additional precipitation is expected to fall in the Antarctic coastal region, with there still being very small amounts of accumulation in the interior.

The greater precipitation and higher air temperatures will lead to a thickening of the inland areas and thinning at the margins, as a result of greater surface melting. Dynamic ice thinning may also take place close to the margins as a result of the removal of adjacent ice shelves. Warming can induce the break-up of ice shelves, which has been observed to coincide with the acceleration of nearby glacier export into the ocean (Rignot et al., 2005). This is currently a key subject of research since ice sheet dynamics are not included in the AR4 models.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has received great attention recently because ofthe considerable changes observed in the elevation ofthe glaciers that terminate in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. Here the glaciers that flow down to the coast are the fastest in Antarctica, with the catchment holding enough ice to raise sea level by 1.3 m. It is estimated that once the ice shelves are removed and glacier retreat proceeds into the more inland, deeper parts of the glacier basins, they are likely to flow considerably faster (Thomas et al., 2004).

Several groups have considered how the mass balance of the Antarctic may change over the next century and what its contribution to sea level will be. Huybrechts et al. (2004) reported that, based on a suite of climate model scenario experiments conducted for the IPCC Third Assessment Report, the Antarctic continent is expected to contribute negatively to sea level rise in the corning century, but that the associated error is the same order of magnitude as the change. In the fourth IPCC assessment it was concluded that the Antarctic ice sheet could contribute -0.12 to -0.02 m of sea level rise between 1980-99 and 2090-99 in terms of surface mass balance under the SRESAIB scenario. However, there are great uncertainties in terms of the dynamical changes that may take place within the ice sheet.

[4wd]

I'm sorry I missed who it was who wants this?

Presumably the green CO2 alarmists.

Why have the EU implemented legislation which will close perfectly good coal fired plants?

Because they were poked into premature action by IPCC reports influenced by alarmist reports such as 20 metre sea level rises this century.

[knocker]

Because they were poked into premature action by IPCC reports influenced by alarmist reports such as 20 metre sea level rises this century.

That's completely at odds with the post I posted earlier. Where did this 20 metre rise come from? Not from any scientific papers or books that I've read on the subject.