Convective Weather UK

[Stuart]

good forecast nick but i wont see any lol

[Coast]

Keeping my eyes peeled today!

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sat 23 Oct 2010 06:00 to Sun 24 Oct 2010 06:00 UTC

Issued: Fri 22 Oct 2010 21:12

Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for S/SE UK and the coast of Belgium and the Netherlands mainly for isolated severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado event.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Main feature of interest is a new trough over western Europe with a rapidly developing depression moving off the eastern UK coast towards Denmark until 24th 06Z. A cold front crosses S/SE UK already during the morning hours with strong to isolated severe wind gusts and marginal hail. An isolated tornado event along the coastal areas is possible with onshore flow and good veering along the front itself. The same risk also exists along the coast of Belgium, the Netherlands and NW-Germany thereafter. During the night, it becomes more difficult to distinguish a convectively enhanced gust from the intensifying background wind field and with very limited CAPE in place, no organized DMC is forecast.

Conditions for thunderstorms become more supportive SW of Sicily (00Z onwards) with scattered to widespread thunderstorms gradually developing. However no severe is forecast with marginal shear and modest CAPE.

The rest of Europe remains covered by a cool/cold and modified continental air mass with limited to non-existing thunderstorm probabilities.

Storm Forecast Issued: 2010-10-22 20:28:00

Valid: 2010-10-23 00:00:00 - 2010-10-23 23:59:00

Regions Affected

Wales, Midlands, East Anglia, SE, CS + SW England and Ireland (all of the United Kingdom is included in the WATCH)

Synopsis

Low pressure "Ursula" (FU Berlin) centred over the North Sea will dominate the weather across the country on Saturday.

Behind an eastward-moving cold front, clearing the east by late morning, a cold rPm airmass is advected across the majority of the country, steepening lapse rates. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to affect many parts of the country, particularly nearer the coasts.

Given the airmass, hail is likely in many of the showers, perhaps locally large in diameter, particularly (but not exclusively) in southern counties of England. There exists the potential for a spout to form. Gusty, blustery winds will accompany heavier showers.

Showers are forecast to decrease in coverage rapidly during the evening hours, becoming increasingly confined to the coast

[DeepSnow]

We have our first thunderstorm of the year here! heard a fair bit of thunder and seen some lightning now too

[Jane Louise]

Fingers crossed for today lol

[SteveB]

Had a rumble of thunder here too. Nice

[Nick F]

Woke up with hail rattling on the window around 5.30-6am this morning, with the wind really gusting and sure I heard thunder too, was some interesting echoes on the radar on the rear-side of the cold front which cleared SE England earlier:

We now have an unstable Pm airmass across southern UK in wake of the cold front which has cleared the SE now, quite a few sferics off north Devon and Somerset coast, should be interesting across there in next few hours.

[NL]

ESTOFEX have issued a level1 severe forecast for the areas pointed out by Nick F in the storm forecast he issued yesterday.

A level 1 was issued for S/SE UK and the coast of Belgium and the Netherlands mainly for isolated severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado event.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Main feature of interest is a new trough over western Europe with a rapidly developing depression moving off the eastern UK coast towards Denmark until 24th 06Z. A cold front crosses S/SE UK already during the morning hours with strong to isolated severe wind gusts and marginal hail. An isolated tornado event along the coastal areas is possible with onshore flow and good veering along the front itself. The same risk also exists along the coast of Belgium, the Netherlands and NW-Germany thereafter. During the night, it becomes more difficult to distinguish a convectively enhanced gust from the intensifying background wind field and with very limited CAPE in place, no organized DMC is forecast.

[Coast]

ESTOFEX have issued a level1 severe forecast

and more!!!!: netweather.tv/convective potential forecast

Quite a howler this morning but has cleared to blue sky now! :unsure:

[Nick F]

ESTOFEX have issued a level1 severe forecast for the areas pointed out by Nick F in the storm forecast he issued yesterday.

Main threat of severe weather, especially tornadoes, should now have passed away eastwards with the cold front that has cleared the SE. The front is where the strongest deep layer and low-level shear with the parallel strong jet streak and backing wind profiles were.

However, still threat of some stronger showers/storms with moderate-size hail, lightning and gusty winds across SW England, Wales and central southern England through the day I think.

[Nick F]

Some decent hail with thunder perhaps across Dorset atm, judging by the radar returns. Central-S and perhaps parts of SE England looking interesting early this afternoon.

Some decent looking towering Cu shooting past gleaming white in the sunshine here now in S London.

[butler_son]

Some decent hail with thunder perhaps across Dorset atm, judging by the radar returns. Central-S and perhaps parts of SE England looking interesting early this afternoon.

Some decent looking towering Cu shooting past gleaming white in the sunshine here now in S London.

Got a feeling I was just under that red patch - good shout! For the record, was very thundery, small sized hail that fluctuated with rain. But the thunder rumbles were impressive. Lasted about 10-15mins.

Edited October 23, 2010 by butler_son

[Stormyking]

Just had a very heavy hail shower, with some reasonable sized hail about pea sized

[MP-R]

Apparently, according to family there was thunder here in Bristol at about 8.30am but I wasn;t awake so missed that. Very heavy showers through this morning but now the sun is shining and there are some lovely solid looking cu-nimbs over towards Wales.

[Guest Quantumsnow]

Nice little storm close by here about 10 minutes ago, short but sweet with some small hail and several flashes inc CG and nice deep rumbles. Can't get on to Strikestar for some reason and they didn't seem to be showing on NW radar lightning overlay.

[xxsnowflakexx]

Big clap of thunder here in Brighton around 15 mins ago

[MP-R]

Typical that I'm in Bristol this weekend and my uni friends in Egham have had heavy hail and thunder within the last hour lol. Bright and sunny again after a squally shower moved through but more cbs to the west and northwest. I love days like these.

[TheToastPeople]

Had a few sharp showers but nothing major.

Some cool clouds in the distance though

Edited October 23, 2010 by Daveweiser

[TonyH]

Following the very heavy overnight rain (25mm) further prolonged heavy/ torrential showers today adding another 11mm since 10am.

Very cool in the heavy rain too it was below 7c at 1400! Drier and brighter now.

[philglossop]

Nice line of showers coming down from Dartmoor- here's hoping for some electrics!

[Costa Del Fal]

Very threatening sky to my North here. Shame its not thundery!

[Mesosphere]

Had a hefty hail shower at my dad's (4 miles south of here) at 11am this morning. Didnt here any thunder though

[TonyH]

Turning into quite an eventful day for convective downpours as a Cardigan Bay streamer has set in this evening giving a fresh series of heavy/ torrential showers of up to 33mm/ hour.

40mm so far since yesterday evening in under 24 hours.

[ZONE 51]

Great some got october thunderstorms. i had torrential rain it could have been hail to it rattled so loud on saturday very early morning after 5am, and then at 5.50am the most huge CG fork (i saw it!)and explosive rumble since july 2009 and first night occurence since then! it was sw direction seemed about a mile from weybridge here. another lesser rumble during afternoon.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Nice looking skies to my east within the last hour with an isolated heavy shower moving southwards, with it currently over Solihull. Be interesting to know if there's any hail falling from it, though the surface layer is relatively dry and as a result cloud height doesn't look particularly high, so perhaps not despite cold mid-levels.

He, hee.. got caught out in that shower, though the very heavy stuff missed me about half a mile to the East (really!) according to the radar, with light - moderate rain falling most of the time. Though the shower had a very wintry look to it, so quite possible that hail/soft hail may have fallen from the heavy area of the shower.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Norwich has dodged most of the showers today, but there was definitely soft hail in one of the showers this morning.