Convective Weather UK

[jello]

ok im pretty sure we are getting thunder here. or what certainly sounds like thunder? but sounds rather strange its defo not an aircraft tho.

yes defo thunder getting hail stones now. wasn't expecting that tonight

Edited November 18, 2010 by jello

[ZONE 51]

As at 1am (meto)radar shows heavy showers running up the dover straight clipping kent coast, something heavy in south wales and large downpours over parts of scotland(take note of water that needs to come down from high ground into rivers) MET OFFICE WARNINGS OUT- DO CHECK.

Edited November 19, 2010 by nimbilus

[Coast]

All this talk of snow and I almost forgot this:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 25 Nov 2010 06:00 to Fri 26 Nov 2010 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 24 Nov 2010 13:51

Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for southwestern Turkey mainly for excessive rain.

SYNOPSIS

A broad upper trough will encompass much of Europe through the period. Secondary short-waves will rotate around its base from the western British Isles to the Mediterranean and farther into the Black Sea region. At the surface, the associated frontal boundary is forecast to make only slow progress over the south Mediterranean and the Black Sea region. Late in the period, the western fringe of this boundary is expected to be returning ahead of an ejecting strong vort-max over western Europe.

DISCUSSION

Bay of Biscay, central Mediterranean

At the cold side of the frontal boundary, cold mid-level air and rather warm sea surface temperatures create steep lapse rates on Thursday. Ahead of a strong vort-max ejecting over western Europe, slightly backing surface winds are forecast to result in weakly recovering low-level moisture. Especially low-level CAPE that may result is indicated by latest model output.

Low-topped convection is forecast along and to the south of a cold front that moves over the Bay of Biscay in the morning hours and travels across the west Mediterranean in the afternoon and evening hours. With relatively warm equilibrium-level temperatures, only isolated lightning is forecast. The severe potential is expected to be quite weak as the storms will likely be too shallow to profit from the strong deep layer vertical wind shear. Strong wind gusts are possible mainly because of the strong synoptic wind field

[Coast]

The UK's convective storm shield seems to be working full stretch today according to ESTOFEX:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Fri 26 Nov 2010 06:00 to Sat 27 Nov 2010 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 25 Nov 2010 15:32

Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A cold and extensive upper trough is placed over Europe, assisting in the advection of a cold and dry air mass, which covers all of Europe (beside the southern most parts). Any convective activity will be bound either to some moisture source (oceans) or to spots where a combination of favorable diurnal heating, some BL moisture and very cold mid-levels exist.

The central Mediterranean will see an active day with widespread showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms with a gradually developing depression. With some moisture advection from the south, modest CAPE may build up over the Tyrrhenian Sea, the Ionian Sea and the Adriatic Sea. Despite CAA atop warm SSTs of the Mediterranean (some LL CAPE forecast), LL wind field starts to respond to the strengthening depression over Italy with increasing shear throughout the day. That's not the best environment for long-lived/well structured convergence zones and an attendant waterspout risk. Nevertheless an isolated event can't be ruled out. Heavy rain accompanies that activity along coastal areas, especially along the east coast of the Adriatic and Ionian Sea.

We went with a level 1 for heavy rainfall over the NE Aegean Sea with repeatedly developing thunderstorms. The same for the Strait of Gibraltar and to the west.

Otherwise, an extensive low probability thunderstorm area was issued for a few short-lived thunderstorms over parts of NW Europe.

[Arron]

Lol! That's the best shield I've seen

[Nick F]

Lol! That's the best shield I've seen

You must be able to see the Pembrokeshire Dangler (convergence zone convection) out over the Irish Sea?

Most lightning strikes seem to have been over NE Scotland coasts over the last 24 hours.

[ZONE 51]

earlier cloud sat image, 2nd take a look at where i have circled ,watch it grow on sat24 is this a thunderstorm growing? its blows from a dot to a round disk its impressive.

amazing all the action going on with the snow!

Edited November 27, 2010 by nimbilus

[Coast]

Not sure if this is worth highlighting or not:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 29 Nov 2010 06:00 to Tue 30 Nov 2010 06:00 UTC

Issued: Mon 29 Nov 2010 04:22

Forecaster: DAHL

A level 1 was issued across the southwestern and southeastern Balkan States as well as the northern Aegean Regions into the western Black Sea mainly for severe wind gusts and Tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued across the Iberian west coast mainly for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.

... SYNOPSIS ...

A large, positively tilted, quasi-stationary upper longwave trough is anchored over the northwestern parts of Europe, yielding an intense and deep southwesterly flow along the frontal zone over the Mediterranean. Jet streaks are present amidst this frontal zone and maintain the SFC low analyzed over central Italy on Sunday evening, and an upstream frontal wave that should cross the western and central Mediterranean on Monday.

[Coast]

So as the charts start getting into a more reliable time frame, can we expect thundersnow?

Thursday:

Friday early:

Will be interesting to see what the low on Sunday brings with all that lovely deep cold air above us - some convective snow for us coast dwellers surely?

[Jane Louise]

Oh, good luck Coast. I would love to experience thundersnow

I'm going to be optimistic and hope that I may get some blowing inland lol ( now, how many times have I said that lol)

[Stuart]

Good Luck Coast :lol:

[NL]

Slight risk for the eastern extremities and north facing coasts of East Anglia to catch a thunderstorm according to ESTOFEX.

http://www.estofex.org/

[Mesoscale]

I was hopeing for some thundersnow earlier but got none but i was happy with the snow i did get!

[Coast]

Neighbours told me they had a terrific lightning flash and instantaneous thunder yesterday morning travelling around Herstmonceux. It would have been during the immense hailstorm that left about an inch on the ground that still remains.

[Interitus]

I forgot to post it at the time but I spotted that on the Saturday 18th xcweather showing Shoreham reporting a tornado - not something you see everyday!

Turned out as might be expected to be a couple of waterspouts off the coast as the front went through, according to members on uk.sci.weather

Check the VCFC in the metar (funnel cloud in the vicinity) -

10:50 AM 2.0 °C 0.0 °C 87% 989 hPa 10.0 kilometers WSW 22.2 km/h / 6.2 m/s - N/A Tornado Scattered Clouds

METAR EGKA 181050Z 24012KT 9999 9000E VCFC SCT012 SCT025CB 02/00 Q0989 RESHGS 20591091

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/EGKA/2010/12/18/DailyHistory.html

[ZONE 51]

Mild air moving in, GFS showing thunder risk along south coast and sw england. today(friday) and saturday.

Any one want to add some charts?

[Coast]

Nothing on ESTOFEX, UKASF or TORRO. 21st OWS have an area under watch in the Western Channel:

as do the aviation, mid level Sigwx charts:

Otherwise, just rain and mess I think:

[Jane Louise]

Somebody on my daughters Facebook reported a huge thunderstorm in Cornwall last night!:o Did anybody see or hear anything?

[knocker]

Somebody on my daughters Facebook reported a huge thunderstorm in Cornwall last night!:o Did anybody see or hear anything?

I didn't hear or see anything but I notice Camborne and Culdrose reported a thunderstorm between 0300 and 0600.Presumably associated with the frontal system.

Edited January 7, 2011 by weather ship

[gottolovethisweather]

Butler_son reported Thunder and Lightning near Verwood, Dorset according to the status updates as well.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited January 7, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[Damone]

We did have a thunderstorm last night, and fortunately I slept through it! I was told the worst part of it was the torrential rain. In fact the rain seems to have woken more people up last night than the thunder did. It also managed to set off the burglar alarm at work.

[Jane Louise]

Looking at the storm risk for my area this morning.I have a 51% chance of a storm on Friday.:cc_confused:I guess it will change but it's something to keep an eye on.

[Stuart]

Looking at the storm risk for my area this morning.I have a 51% chance of a storm on Friday.:cc_confused:I guess it will change but it's something to keep an eye on.

Good Luck Jane

[Backtrack]

There will be some convection for Western areas of the UK this coming mild spell.

The Irish Sea will be warming up with surface air temperatures approaching a lovely 11C. Since the Irish Sea is so cold atm from all the freezing weather we have been having, the warm up will help create some good convection. So those of you in the Western parts of the UK should be seeing some beefy showers from the Irish Sea as the winds change to a more Westerly direction. They wont be Westerly for very long, but that window of opportunity is there!

[Jane Louise]

Thanks Stuart and thanks Backtrack for the info .My storm risk has gone down lol, but that is to be expected as it's still a few days out yet..