Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Convective Weather UK

Coast

By Coast
in Storms & Severe Weather

 Share

Recommended Posts

Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

Thanks Stuart and thanks Backtrack for the info :).My storm risk has gone down lol, but that is to be expected as it's still a few days out yet..

To be honest, I'm not sold on the fact that warming air temperatures are going to have a big effect on the temperature of the Irish Sea...the energy required to heat seas and oceans by just 1C alone is astronomical, think of how much energy is required to heat a kettle full of water...a rise in temperature for a few days won't have much impact in my view.

What could however warm the Irish sea, is the swell from the deep depressions/storms lining up in the atlantic...this is far more likely to warm the Irish sea as storms and possible surge drive warmer currents northwards towards the British Isles. This IMO is far more likely to raise the sea temperatures and increase the risk of convection. If the air temperature is 13-15C and the sea is 11C, then convection is most likely to trigger inland as opposed to the coast, as this is where the greater temperature gradients are.

As I say, this is my opinion as an enthusiast not as someone who is qualified

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

It's going to be touch and go, but I wouldn't dismiss it (or otherwise) until Wednesday into Thursday:

MU_London_avn.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

It's going to be touch and go, but I wouldn't dismiss it (or otherwise) until Wednesday into Thursday:

MU_London_avn.png

I have to say, that chart looks very nice :D (albeit at the moment)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

I have to say, that chart looks very nice :D (albeit at the moment)

It's got a way to go, but Friday night into the weekend + then Monday could be worth homing in on and watching. NW storm risk is a bit too far out for any reliability for me:

post-6667-0-04422400-1294670201.jpg

I'm really breaking a self imposed rule anyway - looking at convective potential more than 2 days ahead!

ukstormrisk.png

post-6667-0-04422400-1294670201_thumb.jp

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

It's got a way to go, but Friday night into the weekend + then Monday could be worth homing in on and watching. NW storm risk is a bit too far out for any reliability for me:

post-6667-0-04422400-1294670201.jpg

I'm really breaking a self imposed rule anyway - looking at convective potential more than 2 days ahead!

ukstormrisk.png

Completely agree...I'm not getting remotely excited...especially considering historically, what GFS says storm wise doesn't often come off...many a time storms have been progged UK wide singling out the SE as getting nothing, when its been the SE who has ended up bagging something while others cry blue murder.

This time of year tends to produce odd sparks as opposed to full on thundery showers/thunderstorms, with coastal areas tending to do better than inland...interesting period nonetheless coming up with a slightest slither of optimism! :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

Completely agree...I'm not getting remotely excited.

Had a quick look this morning Friday into Saturday and not looking that special I'm afraid for us. I'l have another look tomorrow morning but lapse rates, shear, TT values and CAPE etc are all marginal to poor currently.

Mind you, look at Ireland on Saturday:

gfs_stp_eur66.png

gfs_srh_eur66.png

Perhaps England and Wales wil be in for a stormy Sunday? :unknw:

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jane Louise Aficionado

Jane Louise

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
Posted

Very true Stuart.Still a couple of months to go yet,:)

My storm risk for Friday has disappeared now. I think i was rather hoping to much Lol. Plenty more storm opportunities to come yet. as Winter leaves us and Spring arrives.:D

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stuart Experienced

Stuart

Posted
  • Location: Nairn
  • Location: Nairn
Posted

Very true Stuart.Still a couple of months to go yet,:)

My storm risk for Friday has disappeared now. I think i was rather hoping to much Lol. Plenty more storm opportunities to come yet. as Winter leaves us and Spring arrives.:D

good luck for your storms this year i may be moved before summer in a no storm area :wallbash:

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

i may be moved before summer in a no storm area :wallbash:

Cheltenham?! :unsure:

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jane Louise Aficionado

Jane Louise

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
Posted

Cheltenham?! :unsure:

I like that Coast lol :lol:Cheltenham is definately the place to move to where you're guaranteed no storms lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jane Louise Aficionado

Jane Louise

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
Posted

And here's the Estofex forecast for tomorrow.:)

Good luck everyone.:D

... Ireland, Scotland and UK ...

Numerous time frames occur, where thunderstorms could evolve:

a) Morning hours mainly over UK. First tongue of high PWAT content overspreads the area with gradually cooling mid-levels as region resides at the cyclonic side of an intense mid-/upper streak. Cold front passage during the morning hours could spark a few isolated thunderstorms as MUCAPE increases from the SW and even surface based convection can't be ruled out given BL quality. However confidence in strong updraft evolution is still marginal at best, so severe risk will be on the lower end side with gusty winds and marginal hail. Don't want to mention explicitly the word "tornado" in this part despite marginally enhanced LL CAPE along the front itself, but overall conditions don't hint on any enhanced tornado risk right now.

http://www.estofex.org/

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

And here's the Estofex forecast for tomorrow.:)

:good: + their map:

post-6667-0-16723200-1294996759.png

They are out on their own with this one as UKASF and TORRO currently have no forecast. What do the others say?

21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_18.gif

21OWS_ATLANTIC-EUROPE_FITL_THUNDERSTORM-STANDARD_24.gif

PGNE14_CL.gif

gfs_cape_eur12.png

gfs_layer_eur12.png

gfs_kili_eur12.png

gfs_lfc_eur12.png

gfs_spout_eur12.png

gfs_lapse2_eur12.png

gfs_stp_eur12.png

zsfclcldif.curr.1300lst.d2.png

Perhaps its a case of North-West is best today?

post-6667-0-16723200-1294996759_thumb.pn

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Have issued the first N-W convective/storm forecast of the year for today :) :

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jane Louise Aficionado

Jane Louise

Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms :D
  • Location: Cheltenham,Glos
Posted

Thanks Coast and Nick :) At the moment it is dull and breezy here. Would be nice to see some sunshine appear. Will be glued to the radar today Lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Author
Posted

Thank I keep my eyes and ears open maybe 1st of of the year :)

You may need to be in Inverness Stu! :rofl:

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Andy Bown Accomplished

Andy Bown

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
Posted

Some convective interest at the moment with lines of heavy showers moving from W-E across NE Somerset/Bath/Wiltshire, however there is

extensive cloud cover so it's not possible to make out any towers or embedded CBs if there are any.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Yes, some notable convective lines across central southern England along a post cold front trough, a random sferic further east over Norfolk.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Sferics showing up west of London with some cells with red echoes on the N-W radar. Should have extended the area for storms a little further south and east on my storm forecast map :rolleyes: .

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Latest Weather News

    April 2024 - Was it that cold overall? A look at the statistics

    General perception from many is that April was a cold month, but statistics would suggest otherwise, with the average temperature for the whole month coming in just above the 30 year average for the UK as a whole. A warm first half to to the month averaged out the cold second half. View the full blog here

    Nick F
    Nick F | 
    Latest weather updates from Netweather 1

    Bank Holiday Offers Sunshine and Showers Before High Pressure Arrives Next Week

    The Bank Holiday weekend offers a mix of sunshine and showers across the UK, not the complete washout some forecasting models were suggesting earlier this week. Next week, high pressure arrives on the scene, but only for a relatively brief stay. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts | 
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Bank Holiday weekend weather - a mixed picture

    It's a mixed picture for the upcoming Bank Holiday weekend. at times, sunshine and warmth with little wind. However, thicker cloud in the north will bring rain and showers. Also rain by Sunday for Cornwall. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts | 
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...