Convective Weather UK

[philglossop]

Something rumbling up the channel at the moment. Thought it was the Navy war games at first, but the dogs picked up on a louder rumble around 10 minutes ago. It was very dark to the South as well.

[Coast]

Strikes off the Cornish coast and the Brest peninsula:

[SteveB]

Looks like some beefy showers around today, hopefully a couple will have a rumble or two.

Really pleased to see this type of weather back, earlier than expected too.

[Coast]

Might be worth keeping an eye out on these:

http://www.mounthaven.co.uk/webcam.htm

http://www.blue-bar.co.uk/webcam.htm

http://www.minack.com/theatregoers/stream.html

[Stuart]

heads up for next monday risk of storms around some of uk but it sure will be downgread before then

[Jane Louise]

heads up for next monday risk of storms around some of uk but it sure will be downgread before then

Nothing showing for here yet! It will most definitely change by then if it's looking good now lol.

Now, I'm a wondering! Did anybody get a rumble of Thunder today? We had a lot of rain here , nothing exciting happened lol,

[Coast]

A disappointing week on the whole, but then we are still in February!

ESTOFEX have something going on just across the Channel which might be worth watching later:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sat 19 Feb 2011 06:00 to Sun 20 Feb 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sat 19 Feb 2011 02:28

Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued for southern Turkey and Cyprus for a chance of tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

Blocking high pressure is present over Scandinavia and eastwards. A ridge provides calm conditions over Western Europe. A significant low pressure area shifts from the central to the eastern Mediterranean Sea, affecting Greece, Turkey and Cyprus with rain and thunderstorms. A weak cold front belonging to an Atlantic low moves slowly into the Iberian peninsula, western France and British isles.

Webcam: http://www.port-aberwrach.com/index.php?LiveCam

Don't get too excited yet!!!

Its going to be another quiet one next week:

[Stuart]

I hope not be long before our storms relly kick off

[Harry]

I hope not be long before our storms relly kick off

It's quite unusual to get much thundery activity this time of year.

Normally I start getting chart happy from say mid April onwards. It is quite common even to get plume type setups from mid-April onwards, although the channel is like a serial killer that time of the year frequently mullering potent storms as they come up from France.

[Stormyking]

It's quite unusual to get much thundery activity this time of year.

Normally I start getting chart happy from say mid April onwards. It is quite common even to get plume type setups from mid-April onwards, although the channel is like a serial killer that time of the year frequently mullering potent storms as they come up from France.

If I remember Last march I think around 25th, there was actually a plume type setup, I remember Thunderstorms moved up from the South around 4pm, and were quite lively for march!

Edited February 21, 2011 by Stormyking

[Coast]

Normally I start getting chart happy from say mid April onwards.

We are all going to have to give it some serious group concentrating this year. Perhaps if we all wear something crimpoline and rub together a lot, we can create a stormy static charged atmosphere..... :unsure:

[Azores Hi]

We are all going to have to give it some serious group concentrating this year. Perhaps if we all wear something crimpoline and rub together a lot, we can create a stormy static charged atmosphere..... :unsure:

Never fear.

I'm working on a system which uses the hot air produced in the house of commons, this hot air is fed into huge tumble dryers full of soggy, shellsuit wearing rabbits. The resulting warm, electrically charged air is then released into the atmosphere producing vast supercells.

I call this new branch of science:

Parlimentary Rabbit Injection Convective Kenetics. I'll let you do the acronym...

[Mesoscale]

I think if we where landlocked with france and spain we would fare alot better with the weather in general.

I saw some great convection the other day but it didn't do much apart from making some fluffy clouds.

i think we didn't get much in the way of thunderstorms last year because they where being saved for this year.

[Jane Louise]

Oooh, as long as something encourages the storms to show up this year then I'd welcome almost anything Lol.

I know I say it every year, but I honestly feel this year will be a lot better then the past few years (surely it has too)

I guess we are all a little impatient due to this long Winter dragging on , but fingers crossed it hurries up . Never fear ,Spring is near and storm season will not be to long now.

[Coast]

I know I say it every year, but I honestly feel this year will be a lot better then the past few years

You do say that every year!!!! :lol:

Good luck everyone

[Jane Louise]

You do say that every year!!!! :lol:

Good luck everyone

Yes Lol, But this years going to be great I just know it. (Hope I haven't jinxed it again)

[Stuart]

I dont see anything comeing this week

[Jane Louise]

I dont see anything comeing this week

Wont be long now Stu! hold tight, chin up it's going to be a good year Yay lol :lol:

[Stuart]

I been holding tight sice last storm here

[Harry]

While searching for a needle in a haystack, the SE just might have something to look at for Saturday, if the MetO pressure chart prevails...indicating at the moment a post frontal trough straddling the SE quarter Saturday midday period...post frontal airmasses are often more productive than the popular weather charts depict.

The post frontal airmass is in no way extreme though (i.e the drop in temperature is not forecast to be notable) and the trough may co-incide (again, if the MetO pressure chart prevails) with slight ridging from the High to the southwest.

As I say, it's a very small needle in a very dense haystack...but at this time of year, 1% risk is better than the common 0%

Edited February 23, 2011 by Harry

[Coast]

As I say, it's a very small needle in a very dense haystack...but at this time of year, 1% risk is better than the common 0%

I'll go with your sentiment, but I'm not sure that even at 1%, it may be a bit too high for you and me! If anything comes along I'd think it'll be the top of Scotland and NI.

[anvilhead]

hi all

Does anyone fancy a european convective thread ? If this summer is any way near as un-thundery as the last, I'll be trying to get on a cheap weekend flight, or eurotunnel train, or whatever else is going whenever I can - would be good to see us home in on the thunderiest spots in europe each weekend, maybe discussing travel options and costs as well - anyone have any thoughts ?

Cheers, Sam (Cirecnester)

[Jane Louise]

hi all

Does anyone fancy a european convective thread ? If this summer is any way near as un-thundery as the last, I'll be trying to get on a cheap weekend flight, or eurotunnel train, or whatever else is going whenever I can - would be good to see us home in on the thunderiest spots in europe each weekend, maybe discussing travel options and costs as well - anyone have any thoughts ?

Cheers, Sam (Cirecnester)

Hi Sam

Certainly a good idea! I'm sure it'll be fine to start a European convective thread and Coast will probably verify that for you.

I say it in almost every post, I know! but I do have high hopes for us lot this year lol.

France and Spain always seem to do well every year, you know! those storms that used to come across the channel once upon a time, but somehow they can't find their way over anymore Lol

Bring on the Spanish plumes I say!!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think during spring a lot of our storms tend to come from those cold cyclonic polar maritime setups with winds vectored from the north-western quarter of the compass. For instance, March 1995 had much above average hail and thunder activity for March, and the cold cyclonic spells of 13-18 April 1999 and 6-15 April 2008 produced widespread thundery activity just to quote two examples. Spanish plumes can deliver during March and April but often only to limited areas of the country- into May though we quite often get fairly widespread thundery activity from southerlies.

This weekend could contain some convective potential over the UK, though GFS persists in keeping an annoying frontal system stuck over southern areas on Saturday which also restricts convection further north, while the UKMO/ECM suggest sunshine and showers for all with the front staying away. Sunday shows potential for some sharp showers, probably containing a fair amount of hail, spreading southwards during the day before the high pressure noses in.

[Coast]

Certainly a good idea! I'm sure it'll be fine to start a European convective thread and Coast will probably verify that for you.

Well as we often find ourselves looking at what our friends on the continent are enjoying, I think it would be a great idea. I'll open one up and put some monitoring links to websites and webcams etc so we can see what's going on in Europe.

Also think a 'European Convective Discussion' thread would be a good idea!

Here we go!