Convective Weather UK

[dave48]

I was reading an article in 'Weather' (a monthly publication from the r. met society) recently from a few years back about some severe thunderstorms that struck the UK and it mentioned that CAPE of well over 2000 had been verifed post the event. I will try and dig out which issue it was.

I don't know what the return rate for 2000+ CAPE is in the UK but it must be at least 5 years, probably 10.

Have just checked and it was an article by J Webb from the June 2010 issue concerning an MCS on 19/07/2005. Sibley (2009) did indeed confirm CAPE of more than 3000!

Edited March 20, 2011 by dave48

[dave48]

Ah yes, I vaguely remember reading another article on that day. It was June 19. SBCAPE values of over 2000j/kg is pretty rare for the UK, so it's interesting to read that those values were reached, and relatively recently too!

I keep wondering whether this was the same event that brought the amazing hailstorm that I witnessed which I believe occured around the same time that year-- I posted my brief description of the events in the 'Thunderstorm Memories' thread. I initially believed it to have occured during May 2005, but it could possibly have been associated with this event. The main features associated with the thunderstorm that I'm thinking of were the hail and convective wind gusts. And judging by how dark it turned outside with the approach of the storm (and I mean real mean dark), clouds tops must have reached some pretty impressive heights.

Wish I had kept a log of all the storms I've witnessed... lol.

Well the article is titled;

'Multiple large hail events over England and Wales as mesoscale convective system develops, 19 June 2005'

So it could well be the storm you saw. I remember a few good storms in 2005 and although I didn't witness any good hail I do remember one day when the sky really was so dark, that seems to have stuck in my mind too. So perhaps I am also thinking of that day.

Also on a totally seperate note, GFS is playing with a few convectively active days at the start of April, Was on the run last night and showed up again today. Worth watching for a few days so see how the pattern holds up.

Edited March 21, 2011 by dave48

[Thundery wintry showers]

I remember 19 June 2005 quite well. I was in Lancaster that day and Lancaster missed the main area of thunderstorms but some weak cells sprouted up to the north-west of the main band and hit Lancaster, producing numerous rumbles, a few flashes and some sharp showers. However, my parents in Tyne and Wear were hit full-on by the main band and reported some pretty severe thunderstorms with torrential downpours (about 20mm of rain fell in the space of a few hours)- particularly unusual for that area of the country. It was also a hot day with a high of 27C at both locations.

The Weather article notes that a bit further south, in the Newton Aycliffe area, large hailstones were reported.

The 31st August 2005, though less intense in the "peak areas", was a repeat performance and again severe thunderstorms hit Tyne and Wear with approximately 20mm of rain in a few hours. I was again away from the area on that occasion, but that time I was in Leeds which got hit by thunderstorms of comparable severity.

[dave48]

Have checked the archive of sferics on wetterzentrale and I may well be remembering the 31st august event as the 19th june was too far north for me.

[Thundery wintry showers]

There were a few thunderstorms around in May 2005:

• 1st May 2005- an early-season Spanish plume event, most intense in the SE, but thunderstorms occurred in many other regions too (I remember a weak one at 8am in Lancaster for instance).
  
• On the 7th-9th, heavy showers with hail and thunder occurred in eastern areas from a north/north-westerly regime.
  
• Around the 21st-24th a cyclonic south-westerly type associated with returning polar maritime air brought sunshine and showers, and scattered thunderstorms with hail occurred.
  

Also, thunderstorms developed widely across the southern half of England on the 24th and 28th June 2005 and were particularly intense in the south-west, though temperatures were mostly low to mid 20s on those occasions.

[Jane Louise]

Anyone got a storm near them in the South East? The IOW thunderstorm alert has said there's one 150 miles from me lol.It did look rather stormy here today.

Checked detector but only Blitz showing something not sure if it's false.

http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/index.php

Alert message from the Isle Of Wight Weather Station, issued on Tue Mar 22 21:16:26 2011

Warning: Thunderstorm detected within 150 mi range!

Active warnings:

- CLOSE STORM WARNING

Close alarm range: 150 mi

[Mesoscale]

Anyone got a storm near them in the South East? The IOW thunderstorm alert has said there's one 150 miles from me lol.It did look rather stormy here today.

Checked detector but only Blitz showing something not sure if it's false.

http://www.blitzortu...pages/index.php

Alert message from the Isle Of Wight Weather Station, issued on Tue Mar 22 21:16:26 2011

Warning: Thunderstorm detected within 150 mi range!

Active warnings:

- CLOSE STORM WARNING

Close alarm range: 150 mi

I think it was some kind of test or glitch as all of the lightning strikes where +CC and in a straight diagonal line...! lol but i went horse racing today and it did look a bit stormy.

[CardiffStorm]

Lightning does seem to have been detected but not quite a storm:

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html - uses Met Office data (I think)

[Jane Louise]

Hmmm, no reports from any members yet. Met Office radar is quiet regarding rain. Today was so warm and it had that thundery feel and look about it but nothing happened.Was hoping I'd get a storm out of the blue lol

[virtualsphere]

I think it was some kind of test or glitch as all of the lightning strikes where +CC and in a straight diagonal line...! lol but i went horse racing today and it did look a bit stormy.

I'm sure this must be some kind of glitch as pressure is currently very high over the UK circa 1040Mb, and there are no obvious fronts or surface troughs in the area to force any kind of convection. Not sure if you can access old charts but the current GFS CAPE/LI doesn't support any sferic activity:

[Stuart]

Looking at the latest Gfs there are hint at the End Of the Morth there maybe storms but still in the fi :whistling:

[Jane Louise]

Ahh yes Stuart , just had a look myself.But like you mention it's all in fi at the moment and knowing our luck it will continue to stay that way lol.But still we can always hope and pray it comes off Lol.

[Stuart]

O dear me and it gone on 6z run but it could come back on the next run

[ZONE 51]

Can't see much around yesterday.

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some thundery conditions possible next week

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Let me know if im reading the charts wrong!!

[Jane Louise]

Can't see much around yesterday.

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some thundery conditions possible next week

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Let me know if im reading the charts wrong!!

It'll change by then lol I think we are all getting used to it now.

[Harry]

You're reading it correctly - if it's still saying that next Tuesday/Wednesday then I'll get a lot more excited...I'm hankering at the bit now, even more so as this time last year I was getting v excited about the US chase...I miss it so much, will probably be inconsolable when Tour 1 head out lol

[Stormyking]

Right I know this is really far out into fi but thought I might aswell put these on to show Solid plume and 21c this would sweet if this came off especially with that cape and LI high into the S and SE.

It probably won't happen but still gotta love this chart!

[Coast]

It probably won't happen but still gotta love this chart!

Remember the previous day leading into any of this potential is April Fools! :lol:

[Stormyking]

Remember the previous day leading into any of this potential is April Fools! :lol:

Haha thats true but this is the day after Aprils fools day, so probably extra bit more potential :L

Would be funny but cruel if it was an April fools joke, actually it probably is knowing FI lol

[Coast]

Would be funny but cruel if it was an April fools joke, actually it probably is knowing FI lol

Just too far ahead to contemplate at the moment. Trends a week away are OK, maybe 12 hours beforehand I might get a little more excited!

[Harry]

Just too far ahead to contemplate at the moment. Trends a week away are OK, maybe 12 hours beforehand I might get a little more excited!

Indeed Coast...the same mistake is made year on year...indeed those charts are encouraging and may I say, exceptionally pleasant after best part of 6 months lack of convection.

Even if the charts are reading the same this time next week, bear in mind our mate the channel...most years, such events are dampened by a very cold channel, leading to very elevated storms (if any)

[Stormyking]

Just too far ahead to contemplate at the moment. Trends a week away are OK, maybe 12 hours beforehand I might get a little more excited!

Still nice to see the firs tof these type of charts, as you know summer is getting closer

If its still there by 12z or 18z then ill get more into it, pity its so far away :/

[Thundery wintry showers]

I mentioned in MOD that a lot will hinge on the development of that large anticyclone to the south at around T+168.

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110324/12/168/h500slp.png

Indeed, it's all about "amplification". A flat pattern from there will keep most of the UK dull and drizzly, but if the high pressure can surge northwards in front of the next Atlantic low, we could get an evolution like 17-19 March 2005 or 17-19 June 2005:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120050317.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120050318.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120050319.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120050617.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120050618.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2005/Rrea00120050619.gif

Although it's a bit early in the season, we can certainly get some significant thundery activity from southerly incursions in late March/early April (usually not affecting large areas of the country though), and as some of us have noted in the "earliest plume" thread there have been numerous examples of this in the recent past.

[Stormyking]

I wasn't saying I was getting excited about it, I only put them on for a bit of encouragement, I know its too far out I already said that I only put them on because it was nice to see.

18z stil looks pretty thundery but too far out I know!

[Mesoscale]

Yeah our friend the channel.... pah! lol Ive always said that If we where still connected to france we would get much better weather then we do now. Stupid channel ruining everyones day. And we might get more homegrown storms if we where connected as any system wouldn't have contact with any water from the south of france all the way to scotland.

Ive been dissapointed too many times from the charts I don't believe it untill I actually see it, some of the best storms have been the surprise ones that you arn't expecting at all.

Edited March 25, 2011 by Mesoscale