Convective Weather UK

[Stuart]

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Turning fresher with sunshine and heavy showers over the weekend, some with hail and thunder :drunk: :drunk:

from http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

[Jane Louise]

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Turning fresher with sunshine and heavy showers over the weekend, some with hail and thunder :drunk: :drunk:

from http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Same for me here too Stuart. Yay, could be an intresting weekend.

[Stuart]

Same for me here too Stuart. Yay, could be an intresting weekend.

But you know my Luck i wont see anything

[anvilhead]

Hi Sam

Certainly a good idea! I'm sure it'll be fine to start a European convective thread and Coast will probably verify that for you.

I say it in almost every post, I know! but I do have high hopes for us lot this year lol.

France and Spain always seem to do well every year, you know! those storms that used to come across the channel once upon a time, but somehow they can't find their way over anymore Lol

Bring on the Spanish plumes I say!!

Hi Jane

There's one up and running now - fine news!

Yeah I'm more hopeful for this year too - doesn't seem to have been anything in our area for years now. The pattern that keeps these plumes tied to the continent has got to give at some point .. that's what I'm telling myself anyway

[dave48]

Looks like the models have remained consistent since late last week concerning the potential for weak storm activity for southern parts of the UK during Saturday within the post-frontal airmass, with embedded trough disturbances likely to aid convective development:

http://www.meteociel.../fax/fax48s.gif

Retreating ridge towards the east and height falls from the west will bring increasingly cold air aloft across the country on Saturday, steepening lapse rates considerably. At the surface some modest moisture remains present from the south Midlands southwards, and here the GFS generates marginal instability, with a few 100j/kg CAPE being progged on recent runs generally across southern parts of England and Wales.

Shear profile on latest output looks rather poor, so organised storms or severe convective weather looks unlikely. But with a fairly cold upper airmass in place, hail would be the main feature in the more potent showers/storms, with gusty winds also a threat.

Great summary, looks like the first 'good' post frontal set up this year, although as you say, probably limited storm activity associated with this set up.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Nothing in the way of convection expected for Saturday now- a large depression has turned up at the last moment and put the "kabosh" on the whole thing, with fronts bringing overcast weather and prolonged rain. Sunday may still see some sharp hail showers form in the northerly airstream behind the fronts.

[Costa Del Fal]

Some sharp showers still seem likely in the North and West tomorrow esp N Ireland, far W of Wales, W Scotland etc. Only the East will be under cloud and lots of rain. Sunday certainly seems likely to bring some sharp showers as you say, especially around Wales, The Midlands and SW it seems.

Edited February 25, 2011 by Blizzards

[Stuart]

Look Like Sunday will be the best day for showers and thunder now but i look like going miss out as all ways

[Costa Del Fal]

Whilst i think the thunder risk is pretty low this weekend, if i had to place somewhere the most likely to get some on Sunday it would probably be somewhere alone the line from Worcester to Oxford.

Edited February 25, 2011 by Blizzards

[dave48]

Certainly looks like the EL temps are conducive to some lightning, will be interesting to see what comes of it. About as weak a set up as you can get but still in feb.

Edited February 25, 2011 by dave48

[Coast]

ESTOFEX going with that thought today:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Sat 26 Feb 2011 06:00 to Sun 27 Feb 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sat 26 Feb 2011 04:05

Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

SYNOPSIS

Between large high pressure areas over the Atlantic Ocean and over cold Eastern Europe, a surface low pressure area and mid level trough pass over UK, N France, Benelux. Rain stays around for a long period over the UK and Benelux as the low becomes stationary and sends a backbent occlusion after the cold front. Behind its cold front, weak CAPE passes over S UK and N France with EL temperatures of -30°C can lead to showers, a few with thunder. A jet exit over western France provides forcing over the southern part of the unstable airmass. Shear will be rather weak.

A cut-off upper low sinks into the southern Mediterranean Sea around Sicily. The airmass should gradually destabilize in the area, with forcing provided by the strong differential vorticity advection and forming of a cold front south of Sicily.

Others have it in a slightly different location:

Might be interesting to see what comes up the Channel today, perhaps keeping an eye on the IOW detector after lunchtime?

[dogs32]

there were Thunderstorms down South in the early hrs...confirmed by the Beeb

Edited February 26, 2011 by dogs32

[pottyprof]

Currently 350 CAPE showing on the radar for round and about the IOW area. Looks like some beefy showers forming in that area too.

[coffee lover]

Currently 350 CAPE showing on the radar for round and about the IOW area. Looks like some beefy showers forming in that area too.

Lightning and thunder here on east side of the isle of wight

[slb97]

I'm in Portsmouth and there are some very menacing clouds about but haven't heard or seen anything yet! Here's hoping

[Stormyking]

Lightning and thunder here on east side of the isle of wight

I too can confirm Thunder and Lightning, I was out taking pictures of a dying cell to my East, then my friend picked me up to chase the cell to our North which was really close and double CG followed by Loud thunder!

3 Thunder days already this year :o

[tomp456]

pics of a heavy shower in Worthing as of about 10 minutes ago. I guess the thunder potential is over now?

[Jane Louise]

Had a little convection here, but nothing happened again lol. Tomorrow looks a bit more promising!

[dave48]

Today much as expected with some heavy showers around with isolated electrical activity.

BBC ramping up tomorrow with the lightning symbols on the main forecast.

[dave48]

Estofex going with this today:

http://www.estofex.org/

No risk area over land, looks sensible to me, BBC ramping yesterday looks unlikley to come true.Nothing more than the odd flash or two today I think.

Edited February 27, 2011 by dave48

[Lynxus]

Just had a massive hail shower, No thunder ( looking liek it should do though )

Some scary looking scud LOL

Anyway,

The hailshower lasted about 10mins and the cars look like they have been snowed on

( So far this year ( 2011 ) its already been more active than the entire last 24 months! ))

Nothing on the lightning detectors

Edited February 27, 2011 by Lynxus

[slb97]

Looking at the radar I'm wondering if we'll get some hail too! Gone cloudy now after some lovely sunshine this morning

My stepson was watching stormchasers this morning when I got up which was great as I've got him into it now (he's only 12 and asked when he would be old enough to go chasing bless him)

[Jane Louise]

Brilliant hail storm here came out of nowhere. Cheltenhams next!

[Costa Del Fal]

Yep, sferic detected not far away at all from my prediction spot of around Worcester.

[Jane Louise]

Yep, looks like better convective activity is sprouting up behind the occlusion, with clearer air and good breaks in the cloud resulting in better insolation. Was a strike detected on that hail shower a short while ago from the MET's ATD net., Jane.

Hi weather09,

No thunder or lightning for me.But my daughter reported a hail storm after me with a rumble of thunder afterwards. She lives 5 miles away. Typical it seems to kick off when it passes me lol