Convective Weather UK

[Stuart]

all i going to do is Cross My fingers and see what happen in the next few days just maybe

[Coast]

all i going to do is Cross My fingers and see what happen in the next few days just maybe

Well, little signs starting to emerge for you:

Nothing to get overexcited about yet, but it's a start!

[Stuart]

Thanks Coast but to Far North for me :lol:

[Coast]

Thanks Coast but to Far North for me :lol:

Well you'll have to get on the bus then! Seriously, it's a long shot anyway but more encouraging for you than it is for me!

[dave48]

Interesting forecast from Estofex for Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of northern England.

http://www.estofex.org/

[NL]

Will be keeping an eye on developments here today.

ESTOFEX

Speaking of northern half of Great Britain and SW Norway, convection will be clearly post-frontal with little forcing from synoptic-scale system. Too many uncertainities remain to warrant a Level 1 counting with the development of a strongly forced line close to or low-topped supercells behind the front with attendant marginally severe wind gusts and weak tornadoes risk. Nevertheless, these areas might experience isolated thunderstorms and will be monitored for a possible update.

[Coast]

Hmmmmmm:

May be a little too far off shore today?

[Stuart]

I keep my eyes open for today

[Jane Louise]

I keep my eyes open for today

Good luck Stuart. Keep us updated if you get one.

[Stuart]

Thanks Jane I need all the luck in the World :lol:

Edited March 9, 2011 by Stuart

[Coast]

Scotland in the spotlight again today:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 10 Mar 2011 06:00 to Fri 11 Mar 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 09 Mar 2011 20:32

Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Two cut-off lows affect southern Europe: One quasi-stationary to the west of Iberia and the other over Turkey that gradually weakens and moves eastward. Both cut-off lows are connected by a zone of relatively weak mid-level geopotential across the Mediterranean during the period. Farther north short-wave troughs travel eastward across northern Europe with a strong westerly flow. An embedded jet streak spreads from the British Isles and the North Sea into northern Germany and Poland. At low levels, cold and dry air masses are present over east Europe, whereas some low-level moisture spreads into Europe from the south-west.

DISCUSSION

North Sea region

An intense surface low will move over the North Sea, leading to severe winds. The convective potential is expected to be weak as low-level moisture is rather poor. Some showers may be capable of producing isolated lightning, but organized convection that would enhance the severe weather threat is not forecast.

[Stuart]

This time Coast it to far northwest from me :lol:

[Coast]

This time Coast it to far northwest from me :lol:

You are never in the right place Stu - why don't you buy a caravan?! :lol:

[Stuart]

lol coast to much money and dont have a car but i get my 1st 1 in may most of the time

[Harry]

lol coast to much money and dont have a car but i get my 1st 1 in may most of the time

I've not got a great deal of time to do a nice weather chart binge, but if the MetO pressure chart prevails we could be in for some lively weather over the weekend across most of the country - certainly I would anticipate some pretty significant and persistent, possibly torrential rainfall in many areas.

A relatively weak but large area of Low pressure, drawing up some very warm and unstable air from Southern Europe on the Eastern side, while on the Western side drawing some arctic air down from the North. I don't think I've ever seen this type of setup before, so don't know how the mechanics would work...

But by seeing the source of the southerly air flow, if this was summer I'd be getting quite excited about plume type weather

What are other people's views?

Edited March 10, 2011 by Harry

[Mesosphere]

got some fairly gusty winds here at the moment accompinied with hail

[Stuart]

we haveing a hail Shower and gusty winds

[conor123]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs303.gif

A very small bit of potential tommorow in East Wales, West Midlands and North West England for convective showers breaking out along the front as a cool pool of Upper Air heads eastwards with temperatures of 13-15c widely ahead of it.

Edited March 14, 2011 by conor123

[Coast]

I think its a long shot at this time of year:

[Andy Bown]

Must learn to stop being so optimistic......

Anyway, medium range outputs from the GFS and ECMWF show a largely high pressure-dominated pattern taking hold across the UK. Absolutely nothing showing on the models that's of any interest. Just horrible.

But where have the sharp, even heavy, showers over Wiltshire, Somerset, Dorset and Bath areas popped up from this eve!?

I have more rain in my gauge from the last 2 hours unexpected rain than in the previous 2 weeks put together!!

[Coast]

Must learn to stop being so optimistic......

Oh I don't know, I think its a good trait!

Anyway, medium range outputs from the GFS and ECMWF show a largely high pressure-dominated pattern taking hold across the UK. Absolutely nothing showing on the models that's of any interest. Just horrible.

However, little to get optimistic about currently as you say..

[Stuart]

Look like there no risk of storms at the weeknd and into next week :huh:

[Thundery wintry showers]

Meanwhile I am still (!) waiting for my first sighting of a cumulonimbus since the 9th January!

[Stuart]

O yes I can Rember That 1 will but that did not happen

[dave48]

Can't wait until we have some charts like that this year! Especially if they turn out to be correct.