Convective Weather UK

[Paul Sherman]

Beautiful Little Storm in C London

Thunder, Lightning, Small Hail and 40mph wind gusts, lovely Mammatus as well

Temps 54c Dew 50f

Good start to the year

Paul S

[Nick F]

Was there any clearance before the storm arrived? Or just a darkening of the cloudy skies?

Looks alright on radar, engulfing WC1:

[Paul Sherman]

No Nick

But the Cloud Base was pretty turbulent when it arrived, the back edge is as clean as a whistle with Clear Blue Skies.

This little storm has cleared the air completely around it

[Timmead]

Saw more lightning just then than I did for the whole of last year!

[MP-R]

Heard thunder twice to the north while I was in Staines half an hour ago and there was a short period of moderate rain in big drops but now clearing up, seem to have just missed what sounds like a good storm over London way.

[Stuart]

well that 1st storms down south this year

But none here :lol:

[Wet'n'Dry]

Waiting here in anticipation, heavy rain just started

Edit to add:

That was cool, extremely heavy rain and high winds. One massive CG strike no more than 300 yards from me and the loudest thunder i've heard in a long time.

I thought a Tornado was possible as locally the clouds were rotating clockwise but alas no.

All in all a superb start to the year

Edited January 14, 2011 by Wet'n'Dry

[Harry]

DON'T GET ME STARTED! I was at uni today as opposed to at work in C London - to say disappointed would be an understatement...lol! Mind you, we had it skim past uni about 45 mins ago and I knew by the rain and sky there would have likely been thunder and lightning (as I told my fellow students lol)...green tinge without question and some subtle pockets of rotation...but no sparks for me today

Edited January 14, 2011 by Harry

[Timmead]

Here's a snap of the action leaving us in NW London and heading East

Higher res if you want

Edited January 14, 2011 by Timmead

[Mike Storm]

nice pic.... the sky went very dark with lots of scuddy stuff... I was right on the southern flank still nice though and one clap of thunder

[BornFromTheVoid]

Lots of lightning across Ireland at the moment!

[ZONE 51]

lucky few, i was just south of that London storm in Surrey, amazing in january and unexpected, i was only looking at data at 4am(fri) must have changed up their in the shortterm before the storm, i did'nt spot any storm potential in the southeast, just shows what can suprise us! certainly got very heavy rain on friday. amazing NW radar image above.

Edited January 15, 2011 by nimbilus

[Coast]

lucky few, i was just south of that London storm in Surrey, amazing in january and unexpected

Not so much that a storm was unexpected - just where it came from and went!

[Stuart]

there some Lightning strikes getting pick up in northwest scotland with ATD network

[ZONE 51]

Not so much that a storm was unexpected - just where it came from and went!

I know what you mean 0-:

[ZONE 51]

GFS00z showing a risk of storms, what do others make of this, also into southeast later today..

Edited January 17, 2011 by nimbilus

[Coast]

GFS00z showing a risk of storms, what do others make of this, also into southeast later today..

Possibly.....

Storm Forecast

Valid: Mon 17 Jan 2011 06:00 to Tue 18 Jan 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Sun 16 Jan 2011 22:01

Forecaster: DAHL

... SYNOPSIS ...

A broad meandering upper westerly flow is present over Europe with a trough slowly moving into the western parts of Europe on Monday. A rather narrow plume of warm air is present east of this feature and will affect western Iberia, western France, and towards the end of the period, also Benelux and W Germany. A weak frontal wave is anticipated along the attendant cold front, reaching the Channel region on Tuesday morning.

A quasi-stationary upper low persists over the eastern Mediterranean regions.

... DISCUSSION ...

... western France into the Benelux countries ...

GFS and WRF are showing weak CAPE signals primarily just to the cool side of the theta-e plume over France. The mesoscale details of this frontal boundary remain unclear, but it seems that there exists a small chance of a stronlgy forced, shallow convection along the cold front. Shear profiles may be marginally supportive of an isolated severe wind gusts and maybe even a brief tornado over the coastal regions of western France in the late evening hours.

However, overall forcing for upward motion and shear in the lowest layers seem to be too weak to support an appreciable severe weather threat.

Very slight chance at best maybe?

[Jane Louise]

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 0850GMT on Monday 17th January 2011

Valid from/until: 0850 – 1200GMT on Monday 17th January 2011 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

SW England

THREATS

Isolated tornadoes; hail; CG lightning; heavy rain; gusty winds

SYNOPSIS

Complex upper trough across and to the SW of the UK. One shortwave trough is currently approaching SW England. Lift associated with this is generating cooling atop a moist tongue/occluded front, allowing convection to develop. This is likely elevated above a cool boundary layer, but should any root down into the boundary layer, marked low-level veering suggests a weak tornado threat. Risk may move eastwards later on.

Forecaster: RPK.

http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=41214

Nothing for my area, but some in the SW may get lucky.

[Stuart]

Good luck southwest

[Coast]

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 0850GMT on Monday 17th January 2011

Thanks for spotting that Jane Louise!

Current situation according to SatRep:

Some -IC already showing up on the radar for North Cornwall and +CG in the Channel approaches off Lands End!

[Harry]

IMO, this is quite a promising synopsis. It isn't often this time of year, that several sites/charts pick up on the same feature. Estofex, GFS, UKMO (if you run the Invent feature, indicates some pokey little cells through the overnight period, slap bang across the Thames Estuary and either side) and other sites all picking this up - not an especially high chance of thunder, BUT some nice downpours on the roof seem quite likely as I'm drifting off to sleep!

[Nick F]

Not had time this morning to have a look at today's potential, but have done a forecast now:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=

Been some storms across Cornwall earlier, but been quiet since, rain rather convective still across SW and now central-S England. 06Z GFS runs some CAPE across the far south tonight.

[ZONE 51]

-

All exciting and in January to! watching the radar at times as those downpours head my way! later and tonight the SE looking active. 2nd NW storm forecast for January! be good to see some flashes of lightning..

Edited January 17, 2011 by nimbilus

[Wilxy]

A very heavy looking cell heading towards the dorset area wonder if thunder is in that?

[tomp456]

whats the possibility of the W.sussex area getting some thunderstorms tonight? ( I honestly have no clue when it comes to weather)

cheers people!