Convective Weather UK

[Mumbles]

My mum is in Weymouth now and she just text me saying theres is thunder and lightning there now!

[tomp456]

awww lucky! Lets hope mother nature moves her stuff east! Im bored of waiting for thunder!

[slb97]

I've just read about reports of thunder in Weymouth too - yes let's hope they come east too - only heard one tiny measly bit of thunder last year so it would be good to be out of the no storms club in mid January lol

[Mumbles]

Just popped outside here in Sherborne and thunder, very loud and lightning in the south....i was omnly in Weymouth last night....:o(

[tomp456]

haha yeah mother nature can be a ******* at times cant she! Im going to cry if we dont get some thunder here in w.sussex tonight.

Last year was lame for me too so your not alone and yeah it would be brill to get out of the no storms club 17/18 days into the year!

[slb97]

We now have a weather warning for our area and West Sussex - doesn't mention thunder but the south west warnings don't either so anything can happen! Bet I'll be asleep if we get any lol

[Jane Louise]

awww lucky! Lets hope mother nature moves her stuff east! Im bored of waiting for thunder!

Hi tom and welcome to NW

Could you pop your location in your profile. Thanks

[tomp456]

FTW! ahhh i actually cant believe this may be happening tonight. It's like christmas come early haha I'm going to be real dedecated and STAY UP just to see the possible thunderstorm. (yeah thats how desperate i am)

[slb97]

Ah we've just had the really heavy pulse of rain but alas no thunder :wacko: so my hopes have gone down the drain a bit, together with the rain! Well, time for bed now - good luck everyone!

[Stormyking]

Wow some very impressive downpours this evening, also had a couple of rumbles of thunder and flashes of lightning but mostly out in the sea, thouht there were 2 flashes on the island too and 3 rumbles Im well happy wheyyyyyy.

[ZONE 51]

So exciting this..check that radar its coming, flash warnings out, can we get a storm....

Edited January 17, 2011 by nimbilus

[Upgrade]

rather unexpected this very heavy rain, its like a repeat run of this morning! hoping for a flash or two......

[tomp456]

.....or three....or four...five may be pushing it

[Coast]

Owww its going to be a very quiet week for convection fans:

[Jane Louise]

Not long until March though Coast.

A few of us may be lucky, but I doubt'll be me LOL

[Stuart]

sure not i dont think anything kick off tell end of spring start of summer

Edited January 24, 2011 by Stuart

[Harry]

Ok, am getting that craving now which I'm finding really annoying...am absolutely gagging for a plume or at least a decent single cell home grown storm/thundery shower.

Last year was the biggest disappointment (exc US chase) for UK storms I can ever recall. Only one, at very best moderate, plume storm in the whole of 2010, a couple of other thundery showers too.

I really really hope 2011 is much more fruitful

[Thundery wintry showers]

Yes, I'm seeing a fair "window of opportunity" for a January 1984/March 1995 type spell of westerly weather, with sunshine and squally wintry showers and an above average incidence of hail and thunder. Many western areas reported 4 or more days with thunder heard during both of those months. I'm too young to recall January 1984, but I certainly have fond memories of March 1995.

I'm not saying it will happen, because that sort of thing relies upon the UK staying mainly in polar maritime air, when in reality we often get shortwaves cropping up and keeping the UK largely locked into tropical maritime air and the cold airmasses staying locked away to the north-west, but I see more long-term potential here than in any other westerly spell since I started watching the forecast models back in 2002.

The first potential interlude crops up this coming Thursday- GFS isn't particularly bullish about it, but UKMO has a pretty blustery westerly flow and thicknesses near 520 dam which, even though it only lasts for 36 hours, could deliver some pretty vigorous convection for a time.

[Stuart]

looking not to bad for some of us nex Thursday for convection so keeping my fingers cross

[Thundery wintry showers]

"Feet on the ground" springs to mind after seeing the ECM run which keeps us locked into tropical maritime air throughout bar a brief polar maritime incursion on Thursday- convective precipitation will be rare if that run verifies!

[vortex_liam]

Well, I'll hope for something at the start of spring. Had a sefric witch had CC and CG quite offern. Around everys 2mins, So not complaining.

[Stuart]

Still looking good for some storms at midweek in parts of scotland

[Harry]

Still looking good for some storms at midweek in parts of scotland

I heard them mention on Radio 4 this morning, the risk of hail and thunder across northern and northwestern most areas of the UK

[Coast]

Looks like another quiet period to me!

Although Stuart might be on the right track:

[Coast]

Although Stuart might be on the right track:

Indeed he could be (if he was about!) Forgot all about this one today in the rush, sorry it's late but there is a bit of activity in Scotland it seems:

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 03 Feb 2011 06:00 to Fri 04 Feb 2011 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 02 Feb 2011 20:52

Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

A deep trough is located near Greece and will slowly move eastwards on Thursday. To the north, a strong westerly jet expands across northern Europe.

DISCUSSION

Scotland, North Sea, and south-western Scandinavia

A region of interest will be north-western Europe. A strong westerly flow will affect this area on Thursday. Late in the period, another, very strong mid-level jet streak is forecast to reach more than 60 m/s at 500 hPa over the northern British Isles. A frontal wave will be located to the east of this jet streak and will rapidly move eastward. Current scenario is that the moist low-level air mass will be not overlap with the deep lift near the jet streak axis, where quite cold mid-levels are forecast to lead to CAPE. So only a shallow line of convection may develop along the cold front and only sporadic lightning is forecast if any. Nevertheless, this strongly forced line may produce severe wind gusts and tornadoes given a bulk shear up to 20 m/s in the lowest kilometre. An upgrade to level 1 may be needed when sufficient instability will develop along the cold front.

To the west of the cold front, severe synoptic winds are forecast with the sting jet of the low. Weak instability in the cold air mass will likely assist for some showers that may lead to a mixing of the high winds that will be about 45 m/s at 850 hPa to the ground.

Look at these lapse rates!

and the shear!!