Where are the UK thunderstorms?

[ZONE 51]

This summer is becoming rather note worthy for the lack of thunderstorms, so were are they?

whats different about this summers set up to previous ones, and will things change?

[Noctilucid]

West Germany

[Hathers]

I wish I knew. This year has been a waste of time. Im hoping for some decent storms end of August beginning of September. I don't care about them stupid thundery one rumble showers. I want an all night storm like we used to have. The 90s were the best.

[cheeky_monkey]

They are here in alberta canada we have had nothing but thunderstorms for the last 6 weeks

[Nick F]

As some have mentioned already in the convective threads, lack of troughing to just to the SW of the UK and dominance of Azores high there instead. Spanish Plumes tend to bring the most active thundery spells to the UK, and they require a low/trough sat over Biscay to pump warm moist and potentially unstable air from the south.

[coldfingers]

They are all in Spain. They are having an unusually wet and thundery summer, my sister in Alicante area has had vastly more rain than we have here in Bognor during the last three months. The area she lives is normally very arid but was the greenest I have ever seen it when I visited in June.

[sbiggs]

I totally understand specific detail cannot be accurately forecast in terms of areas etc, but its getting on through August now with no sign of any significant weather severity in the near future. Is there even a slight chance of anything popping up in the next month or so that we have left of the season, or is the current 1/2 scattered (doubtfully thundery) showers, 1/2 sunny spells scenario going to be the end of our summer for this year.

I know we mostly feel majorly let down with the summers activities thus far, but I'm in hope for one last chance of having a day of storms, or even a single overnight light show. How do the long range forecasts see things?

Any chance?

[Gavin P]

Much too early to throw in the towel on thunderstorms. I can remember some cracking storms in September (1992, 1995, 2006) and even October (1985)

Don't give up yet.

[ZONE 51]

????? wheres our storms? well from what ive learnt is the azores ridge/high is stopping the right conditions to bring thunderstorms. but its bought the se/ea dry weather and good weather (the se summer).

Could be that september brings up some warm humid air as a low moves towards sw uk or even the bay of biscay as x-tropical storm move our way, im expecting these lows if the hurricane season gets active in august.

Edited August 3, 2010 by nimbilus

[Snowyowl9]

It`s been the 2nd quietest year of the 2000`s for thundery activity only 3 days back in early June,,2002 was the worst with just 1 day.

I expect nothing next week,time`s running out,pattern`s are changing for the cooler.

Since 2006 autumn which was a thundery autumn with frequent very warm S-lys.

Snow falling here is 17 times more common to thunder going by this season,drifting 3 times more.

Says it all,thunder is still pretty rare on average to snow.

[dogs32]

anyone reading this thread would think your all Storm possessed

not me

Edited August 8, 2010 by Pat Carter

[Sprites]

i remember some of the storms in september that Gavin P mentioned, sept 18th 92 is one i wont forget! . A few distant flashes just after midnight, then around 4am an intense storm tracked from the s.s.e. lightning was frequent every 3-5 seconds, with alot of cgs at my location,:bomb:i remember being quite scared by this storm.... at foulness island in essex large hail fell and killed an estimated 2000 wild birds, a few stones were measured at 45mm diameter ,with most around 25mm

[Tom D]

They are all in Spain. They are having an unusually wet and thundery summer, my sister in Alicante area has had vastly more rain than we have here in Bognor during the last three months. The area she lives is normally very arid but was the greenest I have ever seen it when I visited in June.

I remember it being very wet and cool there during winter when it was unusually cold and snowy in much of this country.

I've been storm deprived here this summer, not a single distant rumble of thunder, no lightning and not even any hail I can remember. Had a torrential downpour the other day which turned thundery after moving past us and onto London and southeastwards...

[ZONE 51]

We might get a thundery auturmn but then thats a new season, so its nearly (not long to go) going to be down in the books as one of the un-thundery summers, some isolated areas have had storms, but in general it is a quite one.

maybe next year could be a good one.

Edited August 16, 2010 by nimbilus

[ZONE 51]

Its end of summer, and we are moving into the colourful season.

For many of us it was non-thundery, but some areas did get tstorms, for SE england it was especially low on storm activity, with no thundery plume and the odd day of local homegrown thunderstorms, but compared to other summers its a record low count for the SE.

The Azores high was the main reason for lack of storms ,but it gave the SE a good summer june and july the best.

[Lauren]

Do you think we really are getting less storms than several years ago or are we just selectively remembering good storms that make it seem like we're getting less.

Does that data suggest less storms and if not why do you think people keep saying we don't have as many storms as we used to.

Are we having the same amount of storms but they are less intense?

[Raidan]

I think it's less storms,Notice alot of people talk of storms they remember 10 or more years ago but not alot is said about storms in recent years.

[Snowangel-MK]

I think we get far less and when we do get them they are not as intense as I remember T-storms being years ago, this seems to be a reasonable explanation as to why........

[in the 80's and early 90's,Spanish plumes would advert towards the UK,crossing Biscay and picking up moisture on a N/NW path to the UK (from theS/SE). Attacking fronts from the Atlanticwould then approach from the SW in a NEerly direction, destabilising the plumeand setting off widespread proper thunderstorms.

In the past decade and a half, it has become increasingly apparent that suchSpanish plumes now arrive on a SWerly airflow (rather than the previous SEerly)and as such either only graze the SE corner or don't last for long. Attackingfronts from the Atlantic have also changed,now arriving from the NW in a SEerly direction. This change in orientation offronts and plumes now sees the plumes being deflected into the Low Countriesbefore destabilisation can occur, so the UKexperiences weak, drizzly cold fronts, with the proper storms developing over BeNeLux.]

[Lauren]

I think we get far less and when we do get them they are not as intense as I remember T-storms being years ago, this seems to be a reasonable explanation as to why........

[in the 80's and early 90's,Spanish plumes would advert towards the UK,crossing Biscay and picking up moisture on a N/NW path to the UK (from theS/SE). Attacking fronts from the Atlanticwould then approach from the SW in a NEerly direction, destabilising the plumeand setting off widespread proper thunderstorms.

In the past decade and a half, it has become increasingly apparent that suchSpanish plumes now arrive on a SWerly airflow (rather than the previous SEerly)and as such either only graze the SE corner or don't last for long. Attackingfronts from the Atlantic have also changed,now arriving from the NW in a SEerly direction. This change in orientation offronts and plumes now sees the plumes being deflected into the Low Countriesbefore destabilisation can occur, so the UKexperiences weak, drizzly cold fronts, with the proper storms developing over BeNeLux.]

Any reason for the airflow change?

In my opinion I think we are getting less storms. The last overnighter I can remember was in the early 2000's. I don't think it's me remembering wrongly as I've always loved storms and remember even the little ones.

I swear we used to get at least 3 overnighters each summer. They would have lightning at least every minute for hours on end and at their peak basically constant lightening. In fact I remember one summer me and my parents took a whole album of pictures of the build up to the huge storms (they're probably in the attic somewhere).

Edited June 6, 2011 by Lauren

[Snowangel-MK]

I just found this in the archives:

[Snowangel-MK]

Any reason for the airflow change?

I'm guessing it could be the La Nina effect on the Jet Stream but hopefully someone will be able to give a better and more technical explanation than I can !

http://geology.com/articles/lightning-map.shtml

Looks like the best place for storms is the Congo !

[Thundery wintry showers]

According to Philip Eden's 2005 book "A Change In The Weather", thunderstorms have become slightly less frequent across the UK since the 1980s, but the change is primarily associated with a shift towards more frequent dry anticyclonic weather during the summer half-year, rather than any change in the characteristics of "Spanish plume" events. I don't think there has been much, if any, change in thunder frequency since around 1989.

This might surprise a lot of people, but while Spanish plume events bring the most severe thunderstorms, particularly to the southeast, they aren't necessarily the most common source of thunderstorms (and the further away from the southeast you go, the more true this is). The other major source of UK thunderstorms is slack cyclonic types in the wake of cold fronts, and a greater-than-usual prominence of the Azores High inhibits the establishment of that type of thundery setup.

2010 was a well below average year for thunder activity across most parts of the British Isles, particularly across the Midlands, East Anglia and south-east England. 2011, despite above-average activity during late April and early May, is also running below average, though rather less so than 2010 was up to this point.

Edited June 6, 2011 by Thundery wintry showers

[Costa Del Fal]

According to Philip Eden's 2005 book "A Change In The Weather", thunderstorms have become slightly less frequent across the UK since the 1980s, but the change is primarily associated with a shift towards more frequent dry anticyclonic weather during the summer half-year, rather than any change in the characteristics of "Spanish plume" events. I don't think there has been much, if any, change in thunder frequency since around 1989.

This might surprise a lot of people, but while Spanish plume events bring the most severe thunderstorms, particularly to the southeast, they aren't necessarily the most common source of thunderstorms (and the further away from the southeast you go, the more true this is). The other major source of UK thunderstorms is slack cyclonic types in the wake of cold fronts, and a greater-than-usual prominence of the Azores High inhibits the establishment of that type of thundery setup.

2010 was a well below average year for thunder activity across most parts of the British Isles, particularly across the Midlands, East Anglia and south-east England. 2011, despite above-average activity during late April and early May, is also running below average, though rather less so than 2010 was up to this point.

That statement quite surprises me though i know some are yet to see a storm yet. But considering ive had 3 this year already (Which already isnt far off the 2010 value!) my judgement may be rather clouded.

I think there has certainly been a reduction in Thunderstorms in recent years but i agree with the reason of TWS. There has been quite a bit more blocking in the last few years especially. Since late 2009 the Atlantic has really struggled to be sustained and is still like this imo.

[ZONE 51]

I thought this thunder season got off to a good start, although it could be because i had a storm at the end of april and have been brushed by two since then, weres 2010 i did not get more than a few rumbles in the distance on one day last summer with nothing at all before or after that! it was remarkably quite in many areas. even this year i have still not seen any storms at night, night storms being part of the summer usually, in the old days-especially the 80s we would see several nights in a row of them, even one a week at least if not in a row and we would count many storms through the summer, these were very thundery periods proberly with a slow moving shallow low, although i can't remember the dates i can't forget them! and also they were more violent with multi coloured lightning.

here is a lightning map for dec 2010-april 2011-the more yellow the more strikes-pale green are moderate and yellow/bright yellow the most, you can't miss whos had the most! the blue areas did have strikes but i have faded these out to highlight the most significant areas of detail(i posted in a thread few weeks back thought id enter it here for those that missed it-i created it using MetOffice data - what i did was blend together their 14maps of lightning data, fading out low strikes areas, and colour changing the map/strikes to highlight significant areas)

i might do some research for this thread, i don't know the answer, but its frustrating watching storms over France never turning up, even when there on track they just vapourize! their is something that has changed, a pattern that is there but needs working out, its like here in my area we seem to get freezes and huge snowfalls lately... there becoming something of an expected form of weather here!! now i think we can't miss out on snow, like the times we would never get snow, we now don't get storms hardly at all, when they are coming they don't turn up, a closer look at this is needed i think, so il let you know if i come up with an explanation!

Edited June 7, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[staplehurst]

Any reason for the airflow change?

In my opinion I think we are getting less storms. The last overnighter I can remember was in the early 2000's. I don't think it's me remembering wrongly as I've always loved storms and remember even the little ones.

I swear we used to get at least 3 overnighters each summer. They would have lightning at least every minute for hours on end and at their peak basically constant lightening. In fact I remember one summer me and my parents took a whole album of pictures of the build up to the huge storms (they're probably in the attic somewhere).

What about 6th-7th August 2008? That was one spectacular lightning show - constant forks for several hours!