General Storm Thread

[Ian Fergusson]

Very dissapointing today, well done to the met office / BBC who down played the thundry potential.

Re Tommorow night / Monday is there any storm potential or are we just looking at heavy rain?

We had a fair few SFERICS here in the West Country, mind you (yes, that makes a change).... the thundery cell that developed south of Minehead with orographic assistance late afternoon / early evening and tracked across NW Somerset / Bristol / S Glos gave a fair dose of lightning.

Have yet to look at the Sunday night / Monday AM profiles re t-storm prospects -- look a likely result, though. But frankly, it's the resultant rainfall problem that's the aspect of primary concern (and ditto with pretty much any UK thundery developments of note in any case..... as tragically epitomised by Lynmouth, `52!)

Edited August 21, 2010 by Ian Fergusson

[Wilxy]

We had a fair few SFERICS here in the West Country, mind you (yes, that makes a change).... the thundery cell that developed south of Minehead with orographic assistance late afternoon / early evening and tracked across NW Somerset / Bristol / S Glos gave a fair dose of lightning.

Have yet to look at the Sunday night / Monday AM profiles re t-storm prospects -- look a likely result, though. But frankly, it's the resultant rainfall problem that's the aspect of primary concern (and ditto with pretty much any UK thundery developments of note in any case..... as tragically epitomised by Lynmouth, `52!)

It was a very decent storm, first proper close one, it was a warm and very humid day then it went dark and yes it hit the weston, brean area and tracked across the region and was a direct hit here never seen rain like it and was plenty of thunder and was consistant .

[Costa Del Fal]

Very dissapointing today, well done to the met office / BBC who down played the thundry potential.

Re Tommorow night / Monday is there any storm potential or are we just looking at heavy rain?

Thundery showers certainly look like ushering in as the rain clears especially in the West.

[Greeny]

Wow as predicted multi tornadic storms passed through the county with 2 isolated supercells with tennis ball size hail. countless mile wide tornadoes moved slowly for a few miles before 1 roped out and the next wall cloud appeared. This has been a historic day for our UK county and luckily we could enjoy the tornadoes without human loss or destruction. Such a thrilling day you cant get better than that for storms!

Ouch! was I dreaming there?

[Ian Fergusson]

We had a fair few SFERICS here in the West Country, mind you (yes, that makes a change).... the thundery cell that developed south of Minehead with orographic assistance late afternoon / early evening and tracked across NW Somerset / Bristol / S Glos gave a fair dose of lightning.

Have yet to look at the Sunday night / Monday AM profiles re t-storm prospects -- look a likely result, though. But frankly, it's the resultant rainfall problem that's the aspect of primary concern (and ditto with pretty much any UK thundery developments of note in any case..... as tragically epitomised by Lynmouth, `52!)

OK had a peek at the forecast ascents; looks to me like a rather stable profile in the south for the heavy PPN event so I think thundery stuff unlikely here but hey, it's frankly irrelevant in terms of the PWS (versus aviation) warning perspective anyway. Indeed, I can't recall when we last had to worry about issuing a PWS lightning warning ( = ever?)... By contrast, I've seen a number of advisories and very nifty regional charts produced from Exeter re tornadic potential in many of our UKMO briefings during noteworhy convective events over the past few years, but I guess we take the zap-bang-wallop stuff as granted!!

[Wilxy]

Wow as predicted multi tornadic storms passed through the county with 2 isolated supercells with tennis ball size hail. countless mile wide tornadoes moved slowly for a few miles before 1 roped out and the next wall cloud appeared. This has been a historic day for our UK county and luckily we could enjoy the tornadoes without human loss or destruction. Such a thrilling day you cant get better than that for storms!

Ouch! was I dreaming there?

As soon as you said tennis ball sized hail and mile wide tornados i was like hmm for a second i thought wow

[Stuart]

OK had a peek at the forecast ascents; looks to me like a rather stable profile in the south for the heavy PPN event so I think thundery stuff unlikely here but hey, it's frankly irrelevant in terms of the PWS (versus aviation) warning perspective anyway. Indeed, I can't recall when we last had to worry about issuing a PWS lightning warning ( = ever?)... By contrast, I've seen a number of advisories and very nifty regional charts produced from Exeter re tornadic potential in many of our UKMO briefings during noteworhy convective events over the past few years, but I guess we take the zap-bang-wallop stuff as granted!!

any risk of storm here on monday Ian

[Greeny]

As soon as you said tennis ball sized hail and mile wide tornados i was like hmm for a second i thought wow

Hehe it doesnt need to quite be as big as that but a nice little tornado with a decent supercell to harbour it would be nice. Just once in my life After last year I'm more inclined to not worry about your bog standard storm but if it has a good gust front or nice look to it then I'll spend more time enjoying it. Those carpet grey types with the odd bit of lightning and thunder I find are samey and boring now. If they come over then a bonus I guess.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Wow as predicted multi tornadic storms passed through the county with 2 isolated supercells with tennis ball size hail. countless mile wide tornadoes moved slowly for a few miles before 1 roped out and the next wall cloud appeared. This has been a historic day for our UK county and luckily we could enjoy the tornadoes without human loss or destruction. Such a thrilling day you cant get better than that for storms!

Ouch! was I dreaming there?

I assume that was my prediction of a "light Shower"!! Mabelthorpe in Lincs have had heavy rain running through all day!!

[Lynxus]

any risk of storm here on monday Ian

"Ian: looks to me like a rather stable profile in the south for the heavy PPN event so I think thundery stuff unlikely here but hey"

So i doubt it

As he said, if the airmass is stable then unlikely.

Then again we need something like an comet impact to cause any decent storms in this country now.

Edited August 21, 2010 by Lynxus

[Greeny]

By the look of the skew T Sunday into Monday for here DP and ELR lines are together (saturated) throughout the atmosphere but stable. Indicating rain and no convective potential. Tucked up asleep in bed is the best thing for that

[Ian Fergusson]

Hi Ian,

It would seem there are slight differences between NAE and UKMO/GFS outputs concerning where the heaviest of the rain is likely to fall from the tomorrow evening and into Monday. NAE looks to have the emphasis on heaviest rainfall and resultant highest accumulations slightly further north than the other two models. Wondering whether more of the west Midlands may be at risk of some of heaviest falls?

Agree re convective activity with this frontal system - air mass looks rather stable so looks to be more of heavy rain event.

Hi - indeed so, the latest (I've seen) NAE offers highest totals essentially in a swathe from Bristol up NNE into Glos and West Mids.... peak values 50mm-ish through 00z Mon over following day, but not to be taken literally.... interesting that the Arpege solution tallies (and even exceeds) NAE....

[Costa Del Fal]

Thundery potential Sunday night into Monday certainly low and unlikely however after the main rain event, thundery showers seem likely again?

[ZONE 51]

hi all!

been reading, quite exciting developments for sunday night and concerning, anyone think the winds are going to be a worry south/se england with this system?

[The watcher]

Had a shower pass here early evening which seemed like the remnants of a good old afternoon thunderstorm, had a good gust front with mammatus on its backside (excuse the pun) with torrential rain in its core. No Thunder heard though.

[TEITS]

Latest chart showing the storm approaching the SW.

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/08/21/basis18/ukuk/pslv/10082300_2118.gif

[ZONE 51]

at some point tonight i think someone could make a thread on sunday nights developments?

i think it look severe enough for one.

Whats happening tonight thunder rains for se england? thanks

[TEITS]

Looking rather nasty for parts of E Anglia/E Midlands.

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2010/08/21/basis18/ukuk/pslv/10082309_2118.gif

[TheToastPeople]

Looking rather nasty for parts of E Anglia/E Midlands.

http://expert.weathe...082309_2118.gif

sweeeet! Looks like i might get a good storm this year!

[Costa Del Fal]

sweeeet! Looks like i might get a good storm this year!

It probably wont be thundery.

Looks like a so near yet so far case here.

[TheToastPeople]

well i can still dream!

[Wilxy]

I agree proberly wont be thundery but will be very intresting to track cant wait

[ZONE 51]

might this low deepen suddenly just hrs before making landfall or as it does so? theirs so much moisture its just going to flash flood and swell rivers, are the ppn forecast amounts widespread or local pulses and hills? if widespread then more higher local amounts?

[TEITS]

I doubt the heavy rainfall will be widespread as the 30-50mm amounts are only likely within the centre of the LP. If you check the GFS/NAE predictions is quiet a narrow area of heavy rain. I feel the strength of the wind will only really be noticeable towards E Anglia as the LP deepens and then moves into the N Sea. So really for some people this will turn into a non event although the exact track isn't certain yet.

[ZONE 51]

morning!

00z gfs looking at the track of the rainfall event crossing england, it shows it to be heading towards east anglia with the worst there after 2am, it seems a southern event on gfs.

the winds on gfs pretty gusty along kent to ea (50mph near coasts and hills?) i think the se is in for a rough night.

and thunderstorms possible TODAY in places SE/EA storm forecast out! exciting potential.